MLB Model Results — September 18, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
No graded home run projections are available for this slate.
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Cease | Texas Rangers | 8.0 | 3 | -5.0 | |
| Ian Seymour | Boston Red Sox | 7.6 | 5 | -2.6 | |
| Tyler Glasnow | San Francisco Giants | 7.2 | 10 | +2.8 | |
| Chase Burns | Chicago Cubs | 6.4 | 4 | -2.4 | |
| Connor Prielipp | Los Angeles Angels | 6.3 | 8 | +1.7 | |
| Bryan Woo | Colorado Rockies | 6.0 | 4 | -2.0 | |
| David Sandlin | Detroit Tigers | 5.9 | 4 | -1.9 | |
| Cade Cavalli | St. Louis Cardinals | 5.7 | 6 | +0.3 | On Target |
| Paul Skenes | Kansas City Royals | 5.6 | 7 | +1.4 | |
| Dustin May | Baltimore Orioles | 5.5 | 4 | -1.5 | |
| Peter Lambert | Atlanta Braves | 5.5 | 6 | +0.5 | On Target |
| Nick Pivetta | Miami Marlins | 5.4 | 4 | -1.4 | |
| Clay Holmes | Cincinnati Reds | 5.3 | 4 | -1.3 | |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | New York Yankees | 5.2 | 5 | -0.2 | On Target |
| Gerrit Cole | Arizona Diamondbacks | 5.2 | 6 | +0.8 | On Target |
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
No graded hit projections are available for this slate.
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Strikeout Calls
- Tyler Glasnow — proj 7.2, recorded 10
- Connor Prielipp — proj 6.3, recorded 8
- Cade Cavalli — proj 5.7, recorded 6
Biggest Surprises
- Dylan Cease — proj 8.0, recorded 3
- Andrew Sears — proj 4.3, recorded 0
See today's slate the same way
This is a graded past slate. EdgeRanked publishes the same home run, strikeout, and hit probability analysis for today's games before first pitch.
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