MLB Results — September 18, 2026

MLB Model Results — September 18, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

#1 Hunter Goodman— · vs Bryan Woo 31.1% No Home Run

#2 Coby Mayo— · vs Dustin May 31.1% No Home Run

#3 Nolan Gorman— · vs Cade Cavalli 30.2% No Home Run

#4 Pete Crow-Armstrong— · vs Chase Burns 30.0% No Home Run

#5 Kazuma Okamoto— · vs Kumar Rocker 26.6% No Home Run

#6 Brandon Lowe— · vs Randy Dobnak 25.2% Home Run

#7 Francisco Lindor— · vs Andrew Painter 25.2% No Home Run

#8 Cal Raleigh— · vs Unknown Pitcher 25.0% No Home Run

#9 Zach Neto— · vs Connor Prielipp 25.0% No Home Run

#10 Michael Conforto— · vs Chase Burns 25.0% No Home Run

#11 Jackson Merrill— · vs Tyler Phillips 24.4% Home Run

#12 Michael Harris II— · vs Peter Lambert 24.2% Home Run

#13 Matt Olson— · vs Peter Lambert 24.2% Home Run

#14 Pete Alonso— · vs Dustin May 24.1% Home Run

#15 Carter Jensen— · vs Paul Skenes 23.9% No Home Run

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Dylan Ceasevs Texas Rangers 8.0 3 -5.0

Ian Seymourvs Boston Red Sox 7.6 5 -2.6

Tyler Glasnowvs San Francisco Giants 7.2 10 +2.8

Chase Burnsvs Chicago Cubs 6.4 4 -2.4

Connor Prielippvs Los Angeles Angels 6.3 8 +1.7

Bryan Woovs Colorado Rockies 6.0 4 -2.0

David Sandlinvs Detroit Tigers 5.9 4 -1.9

Cade Cavallivs St. Louis Cardinals 5.7 6 +0.3On target

Paul Skenesvs Kansas City Royals 5.6 7 +1.4

Dustin Mayvs Baltimore Orioles 5.5 4 -1.5

Peter Lambertvs Atlanta Braves 5.5 6 +0.5On target

Nick Pivettavs Miami Marlins 5.4 4 -1.4

Clay Holmesvs Cincinnati Reds 5.3 4 -1.3

Eduardo Rodriguezvs New York Yankees 5.2 5 -0.2On target

Gerrit Colevs Arizona Diamondbacks 5.2 6 +0.8On target

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Fernando Tatis Jr.— · vs Tyler Phillips 62.3% Hit

Yordan Alvarez— · vs Tyler Mahle 62.1% Hit

Randy Arozarena— · vs Gabriel Hughes 61.5% Hit

Elly De La Cruz— · vs Clay Holmes 61.2% Hit

Paul Goldschmidt— · vs Eduardo Rodriguez 61.1% Hit

Josh Naylor— · vs Gabriel Hughes 60.9% Hit

Oneil Cruz— · vs Randy Dobnak 60.9% Hit

Ben Rice— · vs Eduardo Rodriguez 60.8% Hit

TJ Rumfield— · vs Bryan Woo 60.8% Hit

Bryce Harper— · vs Zac Thornton 60.8% No Hit

Teoscar Hernández— · vs Cesar Perdomo 60.7% Hit

Kyle Stowers— · vs Nick Pivetta 60.7% No Hit

Dominic Canzone— · vs Gabriel Hughes 60.7% Hit

Brandon Lowe— · vs Randy Dobnak 60.5% Hit

Andrew Vaughn— · vs Cade Povich 60.4% No Hit

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

Brandon Lowe — 25.2% HR probability
Jackson Merrill — 24.4% HR probability
Michael Harris II — 24.2% HR probability

Top Strikeout Calls

Tyler Glasnow — proj 7.2, recorded 10
Connor Prielipp — proj 6.3, recorded 8
Cade Cavalli — proj 5.7, recorded 6

Biggest Surprises

Dylan Cease — proj 8.0, recorded 3
Andrew Sears — proj 4.3, recorded 0

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Brandon Lowe. Model HR probability 25.2% — result: Home Run.

Live on EdgeRanked

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