MLB Model Results — September 17, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
No graded home run projections are available for this slate.
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Rasmussen | Athletics | 6.1 | 3 | -3.1 | |
| Nolan McLean | Philadelphia Phillies | 6.1 | 5 | -1.1 | |
| Sonny Gray | Texas Rangers | 5.9 | 6 | +0.1 | On Target |
| Aaron Nola | New York Mets | 5.9 | 4 | -1.9 | |
| Justin Wrobleski | Cincinnati Reds | 5.8 | 3 | -2.8 | |
| Walbert Ureña | Minnesota Twins | 5.5 | 9 | +3.5 | |
| Taj Bradley | Los Angeles Angels | 5.1 | 9 | +3.9 | |
| Michael King | Colorado Rockies | 5.0 | 6 | +1.0 | On Target |
| Kyle Harrison | Pittsburgh Pirates | 4.9 | 2 | -2.9 | |
| Framber Valdez | Chicago White Sox | 4.8 | 8 | +3.2 | |
| Tanner Gordon | San Diego Padres | 4.6 | 3 | -1.6 | |
| Erick Fedde | Detroit Tigers | 4.5 | 6 | +1.5 | |
| Seth Lugo | Houston Astros | 3.7 | 5 | +1.3 | |
| Brady Singer | Los Angeles Dodgers | 3.2 | 0 | -3.2 | |
| Jeffrey Springs | Tampa Bay Rays | 3.0 | 4 | +1.0 |
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
No graded hit projections are available for this slate.
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Strikeout Calls
- Sonny Gray — proj 5.9, recorded 6
- Walbert Ureña — proj 5.5, recorded 9
- Taj Bradley — proj 5.1, recorded 9
Biggest Surprises
- Taj Bradley — proj 5.1, recorded 9
- Walbert Ureña — proj 5.5, recorded 9
See today's slate the same way
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