MLB Results — September 17, 2026

MLB Model Results — September 17, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

#1 Zach Neto— · vs Taj Bradley 25.2% No Home Run

#2 Kyle Schwarber— · vs Nolan McLean 25.2% No Home Run

#3 Fernando Tatis Jr.— · vs Tanner Gordon 24.8% No Home Run

#4 Francisco Lindor— · vs Aaron Nola 24.7% No Home Run

#5 Jac Caglianone— · vs Unknown Pitcher 24.2% No Home Run

#6 Yordan Alvarez— · vs Seth Lugo 24.1% Home Run

#7 Jackson Merrill— · vs Tanner Gordon 24.0% No Home Run

#8 Mickey Moniak— · vs Michael King 23.9% No Home Run

#9 Brandon Lowe— · vs Kyle Harrison 23.9% No Home Run

#10 Salvador Perez— · vs Unknown Pitcher 23.9% No Home Run

#11 Carter Jensen— · vs Unknown Pitcher 23.9% No Home Run

#12 Royce Lewis— · vs Walbert Ureña 23.9% No Home Run

#13 Kody Clemens— · vs Walbert Ureña 22.5% No Home Run

#14 Oneil Cruz— · vs Kyle Harrison 19.3% No Home Run

#15 Max Muncy— · vs Brady Singer 18.9% No Home Run

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Drew Rasmussenvs Athletics 6.1 3 -3.1

Nolan McLeanvs Philadelphia Phillies 6.1 5 -1.1

Sonny Grayvs Texas Rangers 5.9 6 +0.1On target

Aaron Nolavs New York Mets 5.9 4 -1.9

Justin Wrobleskivs Cincinnati Reds 5.8 3 -2.8

Walbert Ureñavs Minnesota Twins 5.5 9 +3.5

Taj Bradleyvs Los Angeles Angels 5.1 9 +3.9

Michael Kingvs Colorado Rockies 5.0 6 +1.0On target

Kyle Harrisonvs Pittsburgh Pirates 4.9 2 -2.9

Framber Valdezvs Chicago White Sox 4.8 8 +3.2

Tanner Gordonvs San Diego Padres 4.6 3 -1.6

Erick Feddevs Detroit Tigers 4.5 6 +1.5

Seth Lugovs Houston Astros 3.7 5 +1.3

Brady Singervs Los Angeles Dodgers 3.2 0 -3.2

Jeffrey Springsvs Tampa Bay Rays 3.0 4 +1.0

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Fernando Tatis Jr.— · vs Tanner Gordon 62.1% Hit

Elly De La Cruz— · vs Justin Wrobleski 61.8% No Hit

Yordan Alvarez— · vs Seth Lugo 61.4% Hit

Bryce Harper— · vs Nolan McLean 61.4% Hit

Brett Baty— · vs Aaron Nola 61.2% No Hit

Freddie Freeman— · vs Brady Singer 61.2% Hit

Juan Soto— · vs Aaron Nola 61.1% No Hit

Yandy DíazTampa Bay Rays · vs Jeffrey Springs 61.0% No Hit

Kyle Schwarber— · vs Nolan McLean 60.8% No Hit

Jackson Merrill— · vs Tanner Gordon 60.8% Hit

TJ Rumfield— · vs Michael King 60.6% Hit

Oneil Cruz— · vs Kyle Harrison 60.2% Hit

Teoscar Hernández— · vs Brady Singer 59.9% Hit

Kyle Tucker— · vs Brady Singer 59.9% Hit

Jake McCarthy— · vs Michael King 59.8% Hit

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

Yordan Alvarez — 24.1% HR probability
Henry Davis — 17.3% HR probability
Bo Naylor — 16.7% HR probability

Top Strikeout Calls

Sonny Gray — proj 5.9, recorded 6
Walbert Ureña — proj 5.5, recorded 9
Taj Bradley — proj 5.1, recorded 9

Biggest Surprises

Taj Bradley — proj 5.1, recorded 9
Walbert Ureña — proj 5.5, recorded 9

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Yordan Alvarez. Model HR probability 24.1% — result: Home Run.

Live on EdgeRanked

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