MLB Model Results — September 12, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
No graded home run projections are available for this slate.
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Glasnow | Miami Marlins | 7.6 | 7 | -0.6 | On Target |
| Ian Seymour | Houston Astros | 7.2 | 10 | +2.8 | |
| Andrew Alvarez | Los Angeles Angels | 6.4 | 8 | +1.6 | |
| Shane Drohan | Cincinnati Reds | 6.3 | 4 | -2.3 | |
| Bryan Woo | Athletics | 6.2 | 5 | -1.2 | |
| Paul Skenes | Chicago Cubs | 6.1 | 4 | -2.1 | |
| Gage Jump | Seattle Mariners | 5.8 | 2 | -3.8 | |
| Gerrit Cole | New York Mets | 5.7 | 4 | -1.7 | |
| Tyler Mahle | Philadelphia Phillies | 5.7 | 3 | -2.7 | |
| Connor Prielipp | Cleveland Guardians | 5.5 | 1 | -4.5 | |
| Walbert Ureña | Washington Nationals | 5.5 | 7 | +1.5 | |
| Michael King | San Francisco Giants | 5.2 | 4 | -1.2 | |
| Brandon Pfaadt | Texas Rangers | 5.0 | 7 | +2.0 | |
| Clay Holmes | Pittsburgh Pirates | 4.9 | 6 | +1.1 | |
| Tanner Gordon | Detroit Tigers | 4.8 | 5 | +0.2 | On Target |
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
No graded hit projections are available for this slate.
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Strikeout Calls
- Ian Seymour — proj 7.2, recorded 10
- Andrew Alvarez — proj 6.4, recorded 8
- Walbert Ureña — proj 5.5, recorded 7
Biggest Surprises
- Connor Prielipp — proj 5.5, recorded 1
- Gage Jump — proj 5.8, recorded 2
See today's slate the same way
This is a graded past slate. EdgeRanked publishes the same home run, strikeout, and hit probability analysis for today's games before first pitch.
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