MLB Results — September 12, 2026

MLB Model Results — September 12, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

#1 Nolan Gorman— · vs Sean Newcomb 31.0% No Home Run

#2 Salvador Perez— · vs Ranger Suarez 27.3% No Home Run

#3 Coby Mayo— · vs Spencer Miles 27.2% No Home Run

#4 Kazuma Okamoto— · vs Kyle Bradish 26.6% No Home Run

#5 Hunter Goodman— · vs Andrew Sears 25.3% Home Run

#6 Brandon Lowe— · vs Clay Holmes 25.0% No Home Run

#7 Kyle Schwarber— · vs Tyler Mahle 24.4% No Home Run

#8 Michael Conforto— · vs Paul Skenes 24.2% No Home Run

#9 Jac Caglianone— · vs Ranger Suarez 24.2% No Home Run

#10 Pete Crow-Armstrong— · vs Paul Skenes 24.0% No Home Run

#11 Francisco Lindor— · vs Gerrit Cole 23.9% Home Run

#12 Cal Raleigh— · vs Gage Jump 23.9% No Home Run

#13 Heriberto Hernández— · vs Tyler Glasnow 23.9% No Home Run

#14 Alec Burleson— · vs Sean Newcomb 23.9% No Home Run

#15 Michael Harris II— · vs Unknown Pitcher 23.8% Home Run

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Tyler Glasnowvs Miami Marlins 7.6 7 -0.6On target

Ian Seymourvs Houston Astros 7.2 10 +2.8

Andrew Alvarezvs Los Angeles Angels 6.4 8 +1.6

Shane Drohanvs Cincinnati Reds 6.3 4 -2.3

Bryan Woovs Athletics 6.2 5 -1.2

Paul Skenesvs Chicago Cubs 6.1 4 -2.1

Gage Jumpvs Seattle Mariners 5.8 2 -3.8

Gerrit Colevs New York Mets 5.7 4 -1.7

Tyler Mahlevs Philadelphia Phillies 5.7 3 -2.7

Connor Prielippvs Cleveland Guardians 5.5 1 -4.5

Walbert Ureñavs Washington Nationals 5.5 7 +1.5

Michael Kingvs San Francisco Giants 5.2 4 -1.2

Brandon Pfaadtvs Texas Rangers 5.0 7 +2.0

Clay Holmesvs Pittsburgh Pirates 4.9 6 +1.1

Tanner Gordonvs Detroit Tigers 4.8 5 +0.2On target

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Rafael Devers— · vs Michael King 63.7% Hit

Fernando Tatis Jr.— · vs Cesar Perdomo 62.9% Hit

Aaron Judge— · vs Zac Thornton 62.3% No Hit

Oneil Cruz— · vs Clay Holmes 62.2% No Hit

Juan Soto— · vs Gerrit Cole 62.1% Hit

Elly De La Cruz— · vs Shane Drohan 62.0% Hit

Jake BauersMilwaukee Brewers · vs Brady Singer 61.8% Hit

Bryce Harper— · vs Tyler Mahle 61.8% Hit

Brandon Lowe— · vs Clay Holmes 61.6% Hit

Paul Goldschmidt— · vs Zac Thornton 61.5% Hit

Elly De La Cruz— · vs Unknown Pitcher 61.4% Hit

Bryan Reynolds— · vs Clay Holmes 61.4% Hit

Wilyer Abreu— · vs Randy Dobnak 61.3% Hit

Freddie Freeman— · vs Tyler Phillips 60.7% No Hit

Kyle Schwarber— · vs Tyler Mahle 60.6% No Hit

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

Hunter Goodman — 25.3% HR probability
Francisco Lindor — 23.9% HR probability
Michael Harris II — 23.8% HR probability

Top Strikeout Calls

Ian Seymour — proj 7.2, recorded 10
Andrew Alvarez — proj 6.4, recorded 8
Walbert Ureña — proj 5.5, recorded 7

Biggest Surprises

Connor Prielipp — proj 5.5, recorded 1
Gage Jump — proj 5.8, recorded 2

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Hunter Goodman. Model HR probability 25.3% — result: Home Run.

Live on EdgeRanked

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