Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — September 6, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
15
Games covered
426
Hitters evaluated
30
Pitchers evaluated
September 6, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Rank | Player | Team | Matchup | HR Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Coby Mayo | Baltimore Orioles | vs Payton Tolle | 31.9% | No Home Run |
| #2 | Nolan Gorman | St. Louis Cardinals | vs Tanner Gordon | 31.1% | Home Run |
| #3 | Hunter Goodman | Colorado Rockies | vs Kyle Leahy | 31.1% | No Home Run |
| #4 | Pete Alonso | Baltimore Orioles | vs Payton Tolle | 29.8% | No Home Run |
| #5 | Michael Conforto | — | vs Tyler Phillips | 27.0% | No Home Run |
| #6 | Brandon Lowe | Pittsburgh Pirates | vs Walbert Ureña | 25.4% | No Home Run |
| #7 | Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Tyler Mahle | 25.4% | Home Run |
| #8 | Salvador Perez | — | vs Spencer Arrighetti | 25.3% | Home Run |
| #9 | Zach Neto | — | vs Paul Skenes | 25.0% | No Home Run |
| #10 | Andrew Benintendi | — | vs Bailey Ober | 24.9% | No Home Run |
| #11 | Cal Raleigh | Seattle Mariners | vs Gage Jump | 24.4% | No Home Run |
| #12 | Colson Montgomery | Chicago White Sox | vs Bailey Ober | 24.3% | No Home Run |
| #13 | Elly De La Cruz | Cincinnati Reds | vs Kyle Harrison | 24.3% | Home Run |
| #14 | Royce Lewis | — | vs Bryan Hudson | 24.2% | No Home Run |
| #15 | Owen Caissie | — | vs Clay Holmes | 24.1% | No Home Run |
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Bradish | Boston Red Sox | 7.0 | 3 | -4.0 | |
| Payton Tolle | Baltimore Orioles | 6.7 | 12 | +5.3 | |
| Paul Skenes | Los Angeles Angels | 6.6 | 2 | -4.6 | |
| Ian Seymour | Texas Rangers | 6.1 | 2 | -4.1 | |
| Gerrit Cole | San Diego Padres | 6.1 | 3 | -3.1 | |
| Gavin Williams | Detroit Tigers | 6.0 | 11 | +5.0 | |
| Kyle Harrison | Cincinnati Reds | 6.0 | 4 | -2.0 | |
| Michael King | New York Yankees | 6.0 | 3 | -3.0 | |
| Bryan Woo | Athletics | 5.9 | 9 | +3.1 | |
| Aaron Nola | Atlanta Braves | 5.7 | 5 | -0.7 | On Target |
| Gage Jump | Seattle Mariners | 5.6 | 7 | +1.4 | |
| Andrew Alvarez | Los Angeles Dodgers | 5.4 | 5 | -0.4 | On Target |
| Christian Scott | San Francisco Giants | 5.4 | 7 | +1.6 | |
| Walbert Ureña | Pittsburgh Pirates | 5.4 | 4 | -1.4 | |
| Tyler Mahle | Philadelphia Phillies | 5.3 | 3 | -2.3 |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Player | Team | Matchup | Hit Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Tyler Mahle | 62.0% | No Hit |
| Rafael Devers | San Francisco Giants | vs Christian Scott | 61.9% | Hit |
| Kyle Stowers | Miami Marlins | vs Clay Holmes | 61.7% | No Hit |
| Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | vs Eduardo Rodriguez | 61.5% | Hit |
| Elly De La Cruz | Cincinnati Reds | vs Kyle Harrison | 61.4% | Hit |
| Jake Bauers | Milwaukee Brewers | vs Brady Singer | 61.3% | Hit |
| Yandy Díaz | Tampa Bay Rays | vs MacKenzie Gore | 60.7% | Hit |
| Iván Herrera | St. Louis Cardinals | vs Tanner Gordon | 60.6% | Hit |
| TJ Rumfield | — | vs Kyle Leahy | 60.6% | Hit |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | San Diego Padres | vs Gerrit Cole | 60.5% | Hit |
| Alec Burleson | — | vs Tanner Gordon | 60.5% | Hit |
| Oneil Cruz | Pittsburgh Pirates | vs Walbert Ureña | 60.4% | No Hit |
| Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Tyler Mahle | 60.4% | Hit |
| Jake McCarthy | — | vs Kyle Leahy | 60.3% | Hit |
| Seiya Suzuki | Chicago Cubs | vs Tyler Phillips | 60.3% | Hit |
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Home Run Calls
- Nolan Gorman — 31.1% HR probability
- Kyle Schwarber — 25.4% HR probability
- Salvador Perez — 25.3% HR probability
Top Strikeout Calls
- Payton Tolle — proj 6.7, recorded 12
- Gavin Williams — proj 6.0, recorded 11
- Bryan Woo — proj 5.9, recorded 9
Biggest Surprises
- Payton Tolle — proj 6.7, recorded 12
- Gavin Williams — proj 6.0, recorded 11
Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Nolan Gorman. Model HR probability 31.1% — result: Home Run.
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