MLB Results — September 6, 2026

MLB Model Results — September 6, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

#1 Coby Mayo— · vs Payton Tolle 31.9% No Home Run

#2 Nolan Gorman— · vs Tanner Gordon 31.1% Home Run

#3 Hunter Goodman— · vs Kyle Leahy 31.1% No Home Run

#4 Pete Alonso— · vs Payton Tolle 29.8% No Home Run

#5 Michael Conforto— · vs Tyler Phillips 27.0% No Home Run

#6 Brandon Lowe— · vs Walbert Ureña 25.4% No Home Run

#7 Kyle Schwarber— · vs Tyler Mahle 25.4% Home Run

#8 Salvador Perez— · vs Spencer Arrighetti 25.3% Home Run

#9 Zach Neto— · vs Paul Skenes 25.0% No Home Run

#10 Andrew Benintendi— · vs Bailey Ober 24.9% No Home Run

#11 Cal Raleigh— · vs Gage Jump 24.4% No Home Run

#12 Colson Montgomery— · vs Bailey Ober 24.3% No Home Run

#13 Elly De La Cruz— · vs Kyle Harrison 24.3% Home Run

#14 Royce Lewis— · vs Bryan Hudson 24.2% No Home Run

#15 Owen Caissie— · vs Clay Holmes 24.1% No Home Run

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Kyle Bradishvs Boston Red Sox 7.0 3 -4.0

Payton Tollevs Baltimore Orioles 6.7 12 +5.3

Paul Skenesvs Los Angeles Angels 6.6 2 -4.6

Ian Seymourvs Texas Rangers 6.1 2 -4.1

Gerrit Colevs San Diego Padres 6.1 3 -3.1

Gavin Williamsvs Detroit Tigers 6.0 11 +5.0

Kyle Harrisonvs Cincinnati Reds 6.0 4 -2.0

Michael Kingvs New York Yankees 6.0 3 -3.0

Bryan Woovs Athletics 5.9 9 +3.1

Aaron Nolavs Atlanta Braves 5.7 5 -0.7On target

Gage Jumpvs Seattle Mariners 5.6 7 +1.4

Andrew Alvarezvs Los Angeles Dodgers 5.4 5 -0.4On target

Christian Scottvs San Francisco Giants 5.4 7 +1.6

Walbert Ureñavs Pittsburgh Pirates 5.4 4 -1.4

Tyler Mahlevs Philadelphia Phillies 5.3 3 -2.3

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Bryce Harper— · vs Tyler Mahle 62.0% No Hit

Rafael Devers— · vs Christian Scott 61.9% Hit

Kyle Stowers— · vs Clay Holmes 61.7% No Hit

Yordan Alvarez— · vs Eduardo Rodriguez 61.5% Hit

Elly De La Cruz— · vs Kyle Harrison 61.4% Hit

Jake BauersMilwaukee Brewers · vs Brady Singer 61.3% Hit

Yandy DíazTampa Bay Rays · vs MacKenzie Gore 60.7% Hit

Iván Herrera— · vs Tanner Gordon 60.6% Hit

TJ Rumfield— · vs Kyle Leahy 60.6% Hit

Fernando Tatis Jr.— · vs Gerrit Cole 60.5% Hit

Alec Burleson— · vs Tanner Gordon 60.5% Hit

Oneil Cruz— · vs Walbert Ureña 60.4% No Hit

Kyle Schwarber— · vs Tyler Mahle 60.4% Hit

Jake McCarthy— · vs Kyle Leahy 60.3% Hit

Seiya Suzuki— · vs Tyler Phillips 60.3% Hit

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

Nolan Gorman — 31.1% HR probability
Kyle Schwarber — 25.4% HR probability
Salvador Perez — 25.3% HR probability

Top Strikeout Calls

Payton Tolle — proj 6.7, recorded 12
Gavin Williams — proj 6.0, recorded 11
Bryan Woo — proj 5.9, recorded 9

Biggest Surprises

Payton Tolle — proj 6.7, recorded 12
Gavin Williams — proj 6.0, recorded 11

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Nolan Gorman. Model HR probability 31.1% — result: Home Run.

Live on EdgeRanked

See today's slate the same way

This is a graded past slate. EdgeRanked publishes the same home run, strikeout, and hit probability analysis for today's games before first pitch.

3-day free trial. The full results archive stays free.

Start Free Trial