Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — September 4, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
16
Games covered
449
Hitters evaluated
32
Pitchers evaluated
September 4, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Rank | Player | Team | Matchup | HR Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Coby Mayo | Baltimore Orioles | vs Ranger Suarez | 31.2% | No Home Run |
| #2 | Hunter Goodman | Colorado Rockies | vs Andre Pallante | 31.1% | No Home Run |
| #3 | Heriberto Hernández | — | vs Shota Imanaga | 31.1% | No Home Run |
| #4 | Mickey Moniak | — | vs Andre Pallante | 30.3% | No Home Run |
| #5 | Nolan Gorman | St. Louis Cardinals | vs Ryan Feltner | 29.0% | No Home Run |
| #6 | Jac Caglianone | Kansas City Royals | vs Jameson Taillon | 28.0% | No Home Run |
| #7 | Brandon Lowe | Pittsburgh Pirates | vs Ryan Johnson | 27.7% | No Home Run |
| #8 | Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | vs Merrill Kelly | 27.2% | No Home Run |
| #9 | Salvador Perez | — | vs Jameson Taillon | 26.9% | No Home Run |
| #10 | Zach Neto | — | vs Jared Jones | 26.2% | No Home Run |
| #11 | Andrew Benintendi | — | vs Zebby Matthews | 25.4% | No Home Run |
| #12 | Colson Montgomery | Chicago White Sox | vs Zebby Matthews | 24.3% | Home Run |
| #13 | Kazuma Okamoto | Toronto Blue Jays | vs Daniel Lynch IV | 24.2% | No Home Run |
| #14 | Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Chris Sale | 24.2% | No Home Run |
| #15 | Owen Caissie | — | vs Shota Imanaga | 24.1% | No Home Run |
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Sale | Philadelphia Phillies | 8.1 | 7 | -1.1 | |
| Cristopher Sánchez | Atlanta Braves | 7.2 | 5 | -2.2 | |
| Blake Snell | Washington Nationals | 7.2 | 7 | -0.2 | On Target |
| Shane Drohan | Cincinnati Reds | 6.6 | 5 | -1.6 | |
| Logan Gilbert | Athletics | 6.2 | 10 | +3.8 | |
| Jared Jones | Los Angeles Angels | 6.0 | 9 | +3.0 | |
| Nolan McLean | San Francisco Giants | 5.9 | 7 | +1.1 | |
| Zebby Matthews | Chicago White Sox | 5.8 | 4 | -1.8 | |
| Max Fried | San Diego Padres | 5.8 | 4 | -1.8 | |
| Shota Imanaga | Miami Marlins | 5.7 | 4 | -1.7 | |
| Foster Griffin | Detroit Tigers | 5.5 | 3 | -2.5 | |
| Ranger Suarez | Baltimore Orioles | 5.4 | 3 | -2.4 | |
| Shane Baz | Boston Red Sox | 5.1 | 6 | +0.9 | On Target |
| Walker Buehler | New York Yankees | 4.8 | 6 | +1.2 | |
| Erick Fedde | Minnesota Twins | 4.3 | 2 | -2.3 |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Player | Team | Matchup | Hit Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | vs Merrill Kelly | 64.5% | Hit |
| Elly De La Cruz | Cincinnati Reds | vs Shane Drohan | 64.5% | Hit |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | San Diego Padres | vs Max Fried | 64.4% | No Hit |
| Iván Herrera | St. Louis Cardinals | vs Ryan Feltner | 62.6% | Hit |
| Alec Burleson | — | vs Ryan Feltner | 62.5% | Hit |
| TJ Rumfield | — | vs Andre Pallante | 62.5% | Hit |
| Ben Rice | New York Yankees | vs Walker Buehler | 61.8% | Hit |
| Yandy Díaz | Tampa Bay Rays | vs Trevor Williams | 61.7% | Hit |
| Juan Soto | New York Mets | vs Matt Wilkinson | 61.7% | No Hit |
| Teoscar Hernández | — | vs Jackson Kent | 61.7% | Hit |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | — | vs Daniel Lynch IV | 61.5% | Hit |
| George Springer | — | vs Daniel Lynch IV | 61.5% | Hit |
| Jake McCarthy | — | vs Andre Pallante | 61.5% | No Hit |
| Randy Arozarena | Seattle Mariners | vs Kade Morris | 61.5% | No Hit |
| Jordan Walker | — | vs Ryan Feltner | 61.5% | Hit |
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Home Run Calls
- Colson Montgomery — 24.3% HR probability
- Miguel Vargas — 23.1% HR probability
- Cal Raleigh — 19.1% HR probability
Top Strikeout Calls
- Logan Gilbert — proj 6.2, recorded 10
- Jared Jones — proj 6.0, recorded 9
- Nolan McLean — proj 5.9, recorded 7
Biggest Surprises
- Cristian Javier — proj 3.8, recorded 8
- Logan Gilbert — proj 6.2, recorded 10
Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Colson Montgomery. Model HR probability 24.3% — result: Home Run.
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