MLB Results — September 4, 2026

MLB Model Results — September 4, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

#1 Coby Mayo— · vs Ranger Suarez 31.2% No Home Run

#2 Hunter Goodman— · vs Andre Pallante 31.1% No Home Run

#3 Heriberto Hernández— · vs Shota Imanaga 31.1% No Home Run

#4 Mickey Moniak— · vs Andre Pallante 30.3% No Home Run

#5 Nolan Gorman— · vs Ryan Feltner 29.0% No Home Run

#6 Jac Caglianone— · vs Jameson Taillon 28.0% No Home Run

#7 Brandon Lowe— · vs Ryan Johnson 27.7% No Home Run

#8 Yordan Alvarez— · vs Merrill Kelly 27.2% No Home Run

#9 Salvador Perez— · vs Jameson Taillon 26.9% No Home Run

#10 Zach Neto— · vs Jared Jones 26.2% No Home Run

#11 Andrew Benintendi— · vs Zebby Matthews 25.4% No Home Run

#12 Colson Montgomery— · vs Zebby Matthews 24.3% Home Run

#13 Kazuma Okamoto— · vs Daniel Lynch IV 24.2% No Home Run

#14 Kyle Schwarber— · vs Chris Sale 24.2% No Home Run

#15 Owen Caissie— · vs Shota Imanaga 24.1% No Home Run

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Chris Salevs Philadelphia Phillies 8.1 7 -1.1

Cristopher Sánchezvs Atlanta Braves 7.2 5 -2.2

Blake Snellvs Washington Nationals 7.2 7 -0.2On target

Shane Drohanvs Cincinnati Reds 6.6 5 -1.6

Logan Gilbertvs Athletics 6.2 10 +3.8

Jared Jonesvs Los Angeles Angels 6.0 9 +3.0

Nolan McLeanvs San Francisco Giants 5.9 7 +1.1

Zebby Matthewsvs Chicago White Sox 5.8 4 -1.8

Max Friedvs San Diego Padres 5.8 4 -1.8

Shota Imanagavs Miami Marlins 5.7 4 -1.7

Foster Griffinvs Detroit Tigers 5.5 3 -2.5

Ranger Suarezvs Baltimore Orioles 5.4 3 -2.4

Shane Bazvs Boston Red Sox 5.1 6 +0.9On target

Walker Buehlervs New York Yankees 4.8 6 +1.2

Erick Feddevs Minnesota Twins 4.3 2 -2.3

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Yordan Alvarez— · vs Merrill Kelly 64.5% Hit

Elly De La Cruz— · vs Shane Drohan 64.5% Hit

Fernando Tatis Jr.— · vs Max Fried 64.4% No Hit

Iván Herrera— · vs Ryan Feltner 62.6% Hit

Alec Burleson— · vs Ryan Feltner 62.5% Hit

TJ Rumfield— · vs Andre Pallante 62.5% Hit

Ben Rice— · vs Walker Buehler 61.8% Hit

Yandy DíazTampa Bay Rays · vs Trevor Williams 61.7% Hit

Juan Soto— · vs Matt Wilkinson 61.7% No Hit

Teoscar Hernández— · vs Jackson Kent 61.7% Hit

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.— · vs Daniel Lynch IV 61.5% Hit

George Springer— · vs Daniel Lynch IV 61.5% Hit

Jake McCarthy— · vs Andre Pallante 61.5% No Hit

Randy Arozarena— · vs Kade Morris 61.5% No Hit

Jordan Walker— · vs Ryan Feltner 61.5% Hit

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

Colson Montgomery — 24.3% HR probability
Miguel Vargas — 23.1% HR probability
Cal Raleigh — 19.1% HR probability

Top Strikeout Calls

Logan Gilbert — proj 6.2, recorded 10
Jared Jones — proj 6.0, recorded 9
Nolan McLean — proj 5.9, recorded 7

Biggest Surprises

Cristian Javier — proj 3.8, recorded 8
Logan Gilbert — proj 6.2, recorded 10

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Colson Montgomery. Model HR probability 24.3% — result: Home Run.

Live on EdgeRanked

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