Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — September 3, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
9
Games covered
248
Hitters evaluated
18
Pitchers evaluated
September 3, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Rank | Player | Team | Matchup | HR Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Coby Mayo | Baltimore Orioles | vs Jake Bennett | 31.9% | No Home Run |
| #2 | Brandon Lowe | Pittsburgh Pirates | vs Blade Tidwell | 27.7% | No Home Run |
| #3 | Jac Caglianone | Kansas City Royals | vs Sandy Alcantara | 27.3% | No Home Run |
| #4 | Cal Raleigh | Seattle Mariners | vs Jack Perkins | 25.4% | No Home Run |
| #5 | Heriberto Hernández | — | vs Michael Wacha | 25.2% | Home Run |
| #6 | Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | vs Luis Castillo | 24.2% | No Home Run |
| #7 | Carter Jensen | — | vs Sandy Alcantara | 24.2% | Home Run |
| #8 | Salvador Perez | — | vs Sandy Alcantara | 24.2% | No Home Run |
| #9 | Joc Pederson | — | vs Shane McClanahan | 23.9% | No Home Run |
| #10 | Jahmai Jones | — | vs Brandon Young | 23.9% | No Home Run |
| #11 | Andrew Benintendi | — | vs Hunter Brown | 23.9% | No Home Run |
| #12 | Luis Robert Jr. | — | vs Jake Bennett | 23.2% | Home Run |
| #13 | Pete Alonso | Baltimore Orioles | vs Jake Bennett | 22.6% | Home Run |
| #14 | Alec Burleson | — | vs Tarik Skubal | 22.4% | No Home Run |
| #15 | Dominic Canzone | Seattle Mariners | vs Jack Perkins | 20.4% | No Home Run |
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Henderson | Chicago Cubs | 7.2 | 7 | -0.2 | On Target |
| Jack Perkins | Seattle Mariners | 6.2 | 7 | +0.8 | On Target |
| Tarik Skubal | St. Louis Cardinals | 6.2 | 6 | -0.2 | On Target |
| Hunter Brown | Chicago White Sox | 5.9 | 7 | +1.1 | |
| Jake Bennett | Baltimore Orioles | 5.7 | 7 | +1.3 | |
| Michael Wacha | Miami Marlins | 5.7 | 7 | +1.3 | |
| Kevin Gausman | Milwaukee Brewers | 5.6 | 9 | +3.4 | |
| Shane McClanahan | Texas Rangers | 4.8 | 3 | -1.8 | |
| Cal Quantrill | Tampa Bay Rays | 4.8 | 5 | +0.2 | On Target |
| José Soriano | Cleveland Guardians | 4.7 | 2 | -2.7 | |
| Sandy Alcantara | Kansas City Royals | 4.7 | 2 | -2.7 | |
| Quinn Mathews | Los Angeles Dodgers | 4.6 | 4 | -0.6 | On Target |
| Brandon Young | Boston Red Sox | 4.1 | 7 | +2.9 | |
| Kade Anderson | Athletics | 4.1 | 3 | -1.1 | |
| Luis Castillo | Houston Astros | 4.1 | 3 | -1.1 |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Player | Team | Matchup | Hit Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Stowers | Miami Marlins | vs Michael Wacha | 61.8% | Hit |
| Yandy Díaz | Tampa Bay Rays | vs Cal Quantrill | 61.2% | Hit |
| Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | vs Luis Castillo | 60.8% | No Hit |
| Rafael Devers | San Francisco Giants | vs Lake Bachar | 60.6% | No Hit |
| Oneil Cruz | Pittsburgh Pirates | vs Blade Tidwell | 60.5% | No Hit |
| Wilyer Abreu | Boston Red Sox | vs Brandon Young | 60.5% | No Hit |
| Freddie Freeman | — | vs Quinn Mathews | 60.4% | No Hit |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | Kansas City Royals | vs Sandy Alcantara | 60.2% | No Hit |
| Brandon Nimmo | Texas Rangers | vs Shane McClanahan | 60.1% | No Hit |
| Junior Caminero | — | vs Cal Quantrill | 59.9% | No Hit |
| Zack Gelof | — | vs Kade Anderson | 59.8% | Hit |
| Teoscar Hernández | — | vs Quinn Mathews | 59.7% | Hit |
| Jake Bauers | Milwaukee Brewers | vs Kevin Gausman | 59.4% | No Hit |
| Seiya Suzuki | Chicago Cubs | vs Logan Henderson | 59.4% | No Hit |
| Brandon Lowe | Pittsburgh Pirates | vs Blade Tidwell | 59.1% | No Hit |
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Home Run Calls
- Heriberto Hernández — 25.2% HR probability
- Carter Jensen — 24.2% HR probability
- Luis Robert Jr. — 23.2% HR probability
Top Strikeout Calls
- Jack Perkins — proj 6.2, recorded 7
- Hunter Brown — proj 5.9, recorded 7
- Jake Bennett — proj 5.7, recorded 7
Biggest Surprises
- Kevin Gausman — proj 5.6, recorded 9
- Brandon Young — proj 4.1, recorded 7
Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Heriberto Hernández. Model HR probability 25.2% — result: Home Run.
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