MLB Results — September 3, 2026

MLB Model Results — September 3, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

#1 Coby Mayo— · vs Jake Bennett 31.9% No Home Run

#2 Brandon Lowe— · vs Blade Tidwell 27.7% No Home Run

#3 Jac Caglianone— · vs Sandy Alcantara 27.3% No Home Run

#4 Cal Raleigh— · vs Jack Perkins 25.4% No Home Run

#5 Heriberto Hernández— · vs Michael Wacha 25.2% Home Run

#6 Yordan Alvarez— · vs Luis Castillo 24.2% No Home Run

#7 Carter Jensen— · vs Sandy Alcantara 24.2% Home Run

#8 Salvador Perez— · vs Sandy Alcantara 24.2% No Home Run

#9 Joc Pederson— · vs Shane McClanahan 23.9% No Home Run

#10 Jahmai Jones— · vs Brandon Young 23.9% No Home Run

#11 Andrew Benintendi— · vs Hunter Brown 23.9% No Home Run

#12 Luis Robert Jr.— · vs Jake Bennett 23.2% Home Run

#13 Pete Alonso— · vs Jake Bennett 22.6% Home Run

#14 Alec Burleson— · vs Tarik Skubal 22.4% No Home Run

#15 Dominic Canzone— · vs Jack Perkins 20.4% No Home Run

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Logan Hendersonvs Chicago Cubs 7.2 7 -0.2On target

Jack Perkinsvs Seattle Mariners 6.2 7 +0.8On target

Tarik Skubalvs St. Louis Cardinals 6.2 6 -0.2On target

Hunter Brownvs Chicago White Sox 5.9 7 +1.1

Jake Bennettvs Baltimore Orioles 5.7 7 +1.3

Michael Wachavs Miami Marlins 5.7 7 +1.3

Kevin Gausmanvs Milwaukee Brewers 5.6 9 +3.4

Shane McClanahanvs Texas Rangers 4.8 3 -1.8

Cal Quantrillvs Tampa Bay Rays 4.8 5 +0.2On target

José Sorianovs Cleveland Guardians 4.7 2 -2.7

Sandy Alcantaravs Kansas City Royals 4.7 2 -2.7

Quinn Mathewsvs Los Angeles Dodgers 4.6 4 -0.6On target

Brandon Youngvs Boston Red Sox 4.1 7 +2.9

Kade Andersonvs Athletics 4.1 3 -1.1

Luis Castillovs Houston Astros 4.1 3 -1.1

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Kyle Stowers— · vs Michael Wacha 61.8% Hit

Yandy DíazTampa Bay Rays · vs Cal Quantrill 61.2% Hit

Yordan Alvarez— · vs Luis Castillo 60.8% No Hit

Rafael Devers— · vs Lake Bachar 60.6% No Hit

Oneil Cruz— · vs Blade Tidwell 60.5% No Hit

Wilyer Abreu— · vs Brandon Young 60.5% No Hit

Freddie Freeman— · vs Quinn Mathews 60.4% No Hit

Bobby Witt Jr.— · vs Sandy Alcantara 60.2% No Hit

Brandon Nimmo— · vs Shane McClanahan 60.1% No Hit

Junior CamineroTampa Bay Rays · vs Cal Quantrill 59.9% No Hit

Zack Gelof— · vs Kade Anderson 59.8% Hit

Teoscar Hernández— · vs Quinn Mathews 59.7% Hit

Jake BauersMilwaukee Brewers · vs Kevin Gausman 59.4% No Hit

Seiya Suzuki— · vs Logan Henderson 59.4% No Hit

Brandon Lowe— · vs Blade Tidwell 59.1% No Hit

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

Heriberto Hernández — 25.2% HR probability
Carter Jensen — 24.2% HR probability
Luis Robert Jr. — 23.2% HR probability

Top Strikeout Calls

Jack Perkins — proj 6.2, recorded 7
Hunter Brown — proj 5.9, recorded 7
Jake Bennett — proj 5.7, recorded 7

Biggest Surprises

Kevin Gausman — proj 5.6, recorded 9
Brandon Young — proj 4.1, recorded 7

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Heriberto Hernández. Model HR probability 25.2% — result: Home Run.

Live on EdgeRanked

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