Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — September 5, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
15
Games covered
423
Hitters evaluated
30
Pitchers evaluated
September 5, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Rank | Player | Team | Matchup | HR Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Hunter Goodman | Colorado Rockies | vs Matthew Liberatore | 31.6% | No Home Run |
| #2 | Coby Mayo | Baltimore Orioles | vs Sonny Gray | 30.7% | No Home Run |
| #3 | Cal Raleigh | Seattle Mariners | vs Jeffrey Springs | 28.4% | No Home Run |
| #4 | Royce Lewis | — | vs Anthony Kay | 25.2% | No Home Run |
| #5 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | San Diego Padres | vs Carlos Rodón | 25.0% | No Home Run |
| #6 | Michael Harris II | — | vs Zack Wheeler | 24.4% | No Home Run |
| #7 | Jac Caglianone | Kansas City Royals | vs Max Scherzer | 24.4% | No Home Run |
| #8 | Colson Montgomery | Chicago White Sox | vs Taj Bradley | 24.3% | Home Run |
| #9 | Kazuma Okamoto | Toronto Blue Jays | vs Seth Lugo | 24.2% | No Home Run |
| #10 | Brandon Lowe | Pittsburgh Pirates | vs Yusei Kikuchi | 24.1% | No Home Run |
| #11 | Dominic Canzone | Seattle Mariners | vs Jeffrey Springs | 24.1% | No Home Run |
| #12 | Joc Pederson | — | vs Drew Rasmussen | 23.9% | Home Run |
| #13 | Jackson Merrill | — | vs Carlos Rodón | 23.9% | No Home Run |
| #14 | Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Martín Pérez | 23.9% | Home Run |
| #15 | Mickey Moniak | — | vs Matthew Liberatore | 23.9% | No Home Run |
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Glasnow | Washington Nationals | 7.0 | 8 | +1.0 | On Target |
| Braxton Ashcraft | Los Angeles Angels | 7.0 | 9 | +2.0 | |
| Zack Wheeler | Atlanta Braves | 6.6 | 9 | +2.4 | |
| Parker Messick | Detroit Tigers | 6.3 | 12 | +5.7 | |
| Taj Bradley | Chicago White Sox | 6.2 | 6 | -0.2 | On Target |
| Sonny Gray | Baltimore Orioles | 6.0 | 7 | +1.0 | On Target |
| Cade Cavalli | Los Angeles Dodgers | 5.7 | 8 | +2.3 | |
| Matthew Liberatore | Colorado Rockies | 5.5 | 3 | -2.5 | |
| Robbie Ray | New York Yankees | 5.5 | 1 | -4.5 | |
| Jacob deGrom | Tampa Bay Rays | 5.4 | 7 | +1.6 | |
| George Kirby | Athletics | 4.9 | 5 | +0.1 | On Target |
| Carlos Rodón | San Diego Padres | 4.9 | 7 | +2.1 | |
| Yusei Kikuchi | Pittsburgh Pirates | 4.9 | 6 | +1.1 | |
| Mason Adams | St. Louis Cardinals | 4.8 | 7 | +2.2 | |
| Brandon Pfaadt | Houston Astros | 4.7 | 4 | -0.7 | On Target |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Player | Team | Matchup | Hit Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | vs Brandon Pfaadt | 63.1% | No Hit |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | San Diego Padres | vs Carlos Rodón | 62.3% | No Hit |
| Kyle Stowers | Miami Marlins | vs Javier Assad | 61.8% | Hit |
| Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Martín Pérez | 61.6% | Hit |
| Andrew Vaughn | Milwaukee Brewers | vs Andrew Abbott | 61.4% | Hit |
| Juan Soto | New York Mets | vs Anthony Molina | 61.4% | No Hit |
| Jackson Chourio | Milwaukee Brewers | vs Andrew Abbott | 61.3% | Hit |
| Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Martín Pérez | 61.3% | Hit |
| Elly De La Cruz | Cincinnati Reds | vs Dustin May | 61.3% | Hit |
| Paul Goldschmidt | — | vs Robbie Ray | 61.2% | Hit |
| Rafael Devers | San Francisco Giants | vs Zac Thornton | 61.2% | Hit |
| Wilyer Abreu | Boston Red Sox | vs Chris Bassitt | 61.0% | Hit |
| Oneil Cruz | Pittsburgh Pirates | vs Yusei Kikuchi | 61.0% | Hit |
| Yandy Díaz | Tampa Bay Rays | vs Jacob deGrom | 61.0% | No Hit |
| Gabriel Moreno | — | vs Ethan Pecko | 60.8% | Hit |
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Home Run Calls
- Colson Montgomery — 24.3% HR probability
- Kyle Schwarber — 23.9% HR probability
- Joc Pederson — 23.9% HR probability
Top Strikeout Calls
- Tyler Glasnow — proj 7.0, recorded 8
- Braxton Ashcraft — proj 7.0, recorded 9
- Zack Wheeler — proj 6.6, recorded 9
Biggest Surprises
- Parker Messick — proj 6.3, recorded 12
- Robbie Ray — proj 5.5, recorded 1
Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Colson Montgomery. Model HR probability 24.3% — result: Home Run.
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