MLB Results — September 5, 2026

MLB Model Results — September 5, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

#1 Hunter Goodman— · vs Matthew Liberatore 31.6% No Home Run

#2 Coby Mayo— · vs Sonny Gray 30.7% No Home Run

#3 Cal Raleigh— · vs Jeffrey Springs 28.4% No Home Run

#4 Royce Lewis— · vs Anthony Kay 25.2% No Home Run

#5 Fernando Tatis Jr.— · vs Carlos Rodón 25.0% No Home Run

#6 Michael Harris II— · vs Zack Wheeler 24.4% No Home Run

#7 Jac Caglianone— · vs Max Scherzer 24.4% No Home Run

#8 Colson Montgomery— · vs Taj Bradley 24.3% Home Run

#9 Kazuma Okamoto— · vs Seth Lugo 24.2% No Home Run

#10 Brandon Lowe— · vs Yusei Kikuchi 24.1% No Home Run

#11 Dominic Canzone— · vs Jeffrey Springs 24.1% No Home Run

#12 Joc Pederson— · vs Drew Rasmussen 23.9% Home Run

#13 Jackson Merrill— · vs Carlos Rodón 23.9% No Home Run

#14 Kyle Schwarber— · vs Martín Pérez 23.9% Home Run

#15 Mickey Moniak— · vs Matthew Liberatore 23.9% No Home Run

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Tyler Glasnowvs Washington Nationals 7.0 8 +1.0On target

Braxton Ashcraftvs Los Angeles Angels 7.0 9 +2.0

Zack Wheelervs Atlanta Braves 6.6 9 +2.4

Parker Messickvs Detroit Tigers 6.3 12 +5.7

Taj Bradleyvs Chicago White Sox 6.2 6 -0.2On target

Sonny Grayvs Baltimore Orioles 6.0 7 +1.0On target

Cade Cavallivs Los Angeles Dodgers 5.7 8 +2.3

Matthew Liberatorevs Colorado Rockies 5.5 3 -2.5

Robbie Rayvs New York Yankees 5.5 1 -4.5

Jacob deGromvs Tampa Bay Rays 5.4 7 +1.6

George Kirbyvs Athletics 4.9 5 +0.1On target

Carlos Rodónvs San Diego Padres 4.9 7 +2.1

Yusei Kikuchivs Pittsburgh Pirates 4.9 6 +1.1

Mason Adamsvs St. Louis Cardinals 4.8 7 +2.2

Brandon Pfaadtvs Houston Astros 4.7 4 -0.7On target

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Yordan Alvarez— · vs Brandon Pfaadt 63.1% No Hit

Fernando Tatis Jr.— · vs Carlos Rodón 62.3% No Hit

Kyle Stowers— · vs Javier Assad 61.8% Hit

Bryce Harper— · vs Martín Pérez 61.6% Hit

Andrew VaughnMilwaukee Brewers · vs Andrew Abbott 61.4% Hit

Juan Soto— · vs Anthony Molina 61.4% No Hit

Jackson ChourioMilwaukee Brewers · vs Andrew Abbott 61.3% Hit

Kyle Schwarber— · vs Martín Pérez 61.3% Hit

Elly De La Cruz— · vs Dustin May 61.3% Hit

Paul Goldschmidt— · vs Robbie Ray 61.2% Hit

Rafael Devers— · vs Zac Thornton 61.2% Hit

Wilyer Abreu— · vs Chris Bassitt 61.0% Hit

Oneil Cruz— · vs Yusei Kikuchi 61.0% Hit

Yandy DíazTampa Bay Rays · vs Jacob deGrom 61.0% No Hit

Gabriel Moreno— · vs Ethan Pecko 60.8% Hit

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

Colson Montgomery — 24.3% HR probability
Kyle Schwarber — 23.9% HR probability
Joc Pederson — 23.9% HR probability

Top Strikeout Calls

Tyler Glasnow — proj 7.0, recorded 8
Braxton Ashcraft — proj 7.0, recorded 9
Zack Wheeler — proj 6.6, recorded 9

Biggest Surprises

Parker Messick — proj 6.3, recorded 12
Robbie Ray — proj 5.5, recorded 1

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Colson Montgomery. Model HR probability 24.3% — result: Home Run.

Live on EdgeRanked

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