Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — August 30, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
14
Games covered
370
Hitters evaluated
28
Pitchers evaluated
August 30, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Rank | Player | Team | Matchup | HR Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Coby Mayo | Baltimore Orioles | vs Jeffrey Springs | 31.9% | Home Run |
| #2 | Kazuma Okamoto | Toronto Blue Jays | vs Logan Gilbert | 31.0% | Home Run |
| #3 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | — | vs Chase Burns | 30.0% | Home Run |
| #4 | Pete Alonso | Baltimore Orioles | vs Jeffrey Springs | 27.4% | No Home Run |
| #5 | Hunter Goodman | Colorado Rockies | vs Tyler Mahle | 27.3% | No Home Run |
| #6 | Andrew Benintendi | — | vs Zebby Matthews | 26.2% | No Home Run |
| #7 | Nolan Gorman | St. Louis Cardinals | vs Braxton Ashcraft | 25.4% | No Home Run |
| #8 | Michael Conforto | — | vs Chase Burns | 25.2% | No Home Run |
| #9 | Heriberto Hernández | — | vs Andrew Alvarez | 25.2% | No Home Run |
| #10 | Salvador Perez | — | vs Parker Messick | 24.2% | No Home Run |
| #11 | Jac Caglianone | Kansas City Royals | vs Parker Messick | 24.2% | No Home Run |
| #12 | Colson Montgomery | Chicago White Sox | vs Zebby Matthews | 24.1% | No Home Run |
| #13 | Munetaka Murakami | — | vs Zebby Matthews | 24.1% | No Home Run |
| #14 | Brandon Lowe | Pittsburgh Pirates | vs Matthew Liberatore | 23.9% | No Home Run |
| #15 | Jo Adell | — | vs Seth Lugo | 23.9% | No Home Run |
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Wheeler | Los Angeles Angels | 7.1 | 6 | -1.1 | |
| Tyler Glasnow | Detroit Tigers | 6.8 | 6 | -0.8 | On Target |
| Chase Burns | Chicago Cubs | 6.7 | 7 | +0.3 | On Target |
| Shota Imanaga | Cincinnati Reds | 6.1 | 4 | -2.1 | |
| Braxton Ashcraft | St. Louis Cardinals | 5.9 | 3 | -2.9 | |
| Andrew Alvarez | Miami Marlins | 5.7 | 6 | +0.3 | On Target |
| Matthew Liberatore | Pittsburgh Pirates | 5.7 | 9 | +3.3 | |
| Parker Messick | Kansas City Royals | 5.5 | 5 | -0.5 | On Target |
| Tyler Mahle | Colorado Rockies | 5.4 | 9 | +3.6 | |
| Logan Gilbert | Toronto Blue Jays | 5.1 | 4 | -1.1 | |
| Zebby Matthews | Chicago White Sox | 5.0 | 5 | +0.0 | On Target |
| Kumar Rocker | Milwaukee Brewers | 4.7 | 7 | +2.3 | |
| Ranger Suarez | New York Yankees | 4.7 | 2 | -2.7 | |
| Zac Thornton | Houston Astros | 4.3 | 5 | +0.7 | On Target |
| Will Warren | Boston Red Sox | 4.2 | 7 | +2.8 |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Player | Team | Matchup | Hit Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Soto | New York Mets | vs Ethan Pecko | 63.3% | Hit |
| Shohei Ohtani | Los Angeles Dodgers | vs Framber Valdez | 62.7% | No Hit |
| Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | vs Zac Thornton | 62.5% | No Hit |
| Brett Baty | New York Mets | vs Ethan Pecko | 62.2% | No Hit |
| Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Yusei Kikuchi | 62.1% | Hit |
| Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Yusei Kikuchi | 62.0% | Hit |
| Elly De La Cruz | Cincinnati Reds | vs Shota Imanaga | 61.9% | Hit |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | San Diego Padres | vs Drew Rasmussen | 61.9% | No Hit |
| Oneil Cruz | Pittsburgh Pirates | vs Matthew Liberatore | 61.9% | Hit |
| Pete Alonso | Baltimore Orioles | vs Jeffrey Springs | 61.6% | Hit |
| CJ Abrams | — | vs Janson Junk | 61.6% | No Hit |
| Randy Arozarena | Seattle Mariners | vs Max Scherzer | 61.4% | No Hit |
| Yandy Díaz | Tampa Bay Rays | vs Robbie Ray | 61.4% | Hit |
| Jake Bauers | Milwaukee Brewers | vs Kumar Rocker | 61.3% | Hit |
| Paul Goldschmidt | — | vs Ranger Suarez | 61.1% | Hit |
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Home Run Calls
- Coby Mayo — 31.9% HR probability
- Kazuma Okamoto — 31.0% HR probability
- Pete Crow-Armstrong — 30.0% HR probability
Top Strikeout Calls
- Chase Burns — proj 6.7, recorded 7
- Andrew Alvarez — proj 5.7, recorded 6
- Matthew Liberatore — proj 5.7, recorded 9
Biggest Surprises
- Max Scherzer — proj 3.0, recorded 10
- Tyler Mahle — proj 5.4, recorded 9
Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Coby Mayo. Model HR probability 31.9% — result: Home Run.
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