MLB Results — August 30, 2026

MLB Model Results — August 30, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

#1 Coby Mayo— · vs Jeffrey Springs 31.9% Home Run

#2 Kazuma Okamoto— · vs Logan Gilbert 31.0% Home Run

#3 Pete Crow-Armstrong— · vs Chase Burns 30.0% Home Run

#4 Pete Alonso— · vs Jeffrey Springs 27.4% No Home Run

#5 Hunter Goodman— · vs Tyler Mahle 27.3% No Home Run

#6 Andrew Benintendi— · vs Zebby Matthews 26.2% No Home Run

#7 Nolan Gorman— · vs Braxton Ashcraft 25.4% No Home Run

#8 Michael Conforto— · vs Chase Burns 25.2% No Home Run

#9 Heriberto Hernández— · vs Andrew Alvarez 25.2% No Home Run

#10 Salvador Perez— · vs Parker Messick 24.2% No Home Run

#11 Jac Caglianone— · vs Parker Messick 24.2% No Home Run

#12 Colson Montgomery— · vs Zebby Matthews 24.1% No Home Run

#13 Munetaka Murakami— · vs Zebby Matthews 24.1% No Home Run

#14 Brandon Lowe— · vs Matthew Liberatore 23.9% No Home Run

#15 Jo Adell— · vs Seth Lugo 23.9% No Home Run

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Zack Wheelervs Los Angeles Angels 7.1 6 -1.1

Tyler Glasnowvs Detroit Tigers 6.8 6 -0.8On target

Chase Burnsvs Chicago Cubs 6.7 7 +0.3On target

Shota Imanagavs Cincinnati Reds 6.1 4 -2.1

Braxton Ashcraftvs St. Louis Cardinals 5.9 3 -2.9

Andrew Alvarezvs Miami Marlins 5.7 6 +0.3On target

Matthew Liberatorevs Pittsburgh Pirates 5.7 9 +3.3

Parker Messickvs Kansas City Royals 5.5 5 -0.5On target

Tyler Mahlevs Colorado Rockies 5.4 9 +3.6

Logan Gilbertvs Toronto Blue Jays 5.1 4 -1.1

Zebby Matthewsvs Chicago White Sox 5.0 5 +0.0On target

Kumar Rockervs Milwaukee Brewers 4.7 7 +2.3

Ranger Suarezvs New York Yankees 4.7 2 -2.7

Zac Thorntonvs Houston Astros 4.3 5 +0.7On target

Will Warrenvs Boston Red Sox 4.2 7 +2.8

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Juan Soto— · vs Ethan Pecko 63.3% Hit

Shohei Ohtani— · vs Framber Valdez 62.7% No Hit

Yordan Alvarez— · vs Zac Thornton 62.5% No Hit

Brett Baty— · vs Ethan Pecko 62.2% No Hit

Bryce Harper— · vs Yusei Kikuchi 62.1% Hit

Kyle Schwarber— · vs Yusei Kikuchi 62.0% Hit

Elly De La Cruz— · vs Shota Imanaga 61.9% Hit

Fernando Tatis Jr.— · vs Drew Rasmussen 61.9% No Hit

Oneil Cruz— · vs Matthew Liberatore 61.9% Hit

Pete Alonso— · vs Jeffrey Springs 61.6% Hit

CJ Abrams— · vs Janson Junk 61.6% No Hit

Randy Arozarena— · vs Max Scherzer 61.4% No Hit

Yandy DíazTampa Bay Rays · vs Robbie Ray 61.4% Hit

Jake BauersMilwaukee Brewers · vs Kumar Rocker 61.3% Hit

Paul Goldschmidt— · vs Ranger Suarez 61.1% Hit

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

Coby Mayo — 31.9% HR probability
Kazuma Okamoto — 31.0% HR probability
Pete Crow-Armstrong — 30.0% HR probability

Top Strikeout Calls

Chase Burns — proj 6.7, recorded 7
Andrew Alvarez — proj 5.7, recorded 6
Matthew Liberatore — proj 5.7, recorded 9

Biggest Surprises

Max Scherzer — proj 3.0, recorded 10
Tyler Mahle — proj 5.4, recorded 9

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Coby Mayo. Model HR probability 31.9% — result: Home Run.

Live on EdgeRanked

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