Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — August 7, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
16
Games covered
429
Hitters evaluated
31
Pitchers evaluated
August 7, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Rank | Player | Team | Matchup | HR Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Coby Mayo | — | vs Nathan Eovaldi | 31.1% | No Home Run |
| #2 | Heriberto Hernández | Miami Marlins | vs George Klassen | 31.0% | No Home Run |
| #3 | Jac Caglianone | Kansas City Royals | vs Kevin Gausman | 31.0% | No Home Run |
| #4 | Salvador Perez | Kansas City Royals | vs Kevin Gausman | 30.4% | No Home Run |
| #5 | Willy Adames | — | vs Keider Montero | 29.7% | Home Run |
| #6 | Shohei Ohtani | — | vs Merrill Kelly | 29.0% | No Home Run |
| #7 | Royce Lewis | — | vs Shane Drohan | 28.0% | No Home Run |
| #8 | Owen Caissie | — | vs George Klassen | 27.9% | No Home Run |
| #9 | Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | vs Robbie Ray | 26.5% | No Home Run |
| #10 | Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs José Soriano | 26.4% | No Home Run |
| #11 | Kyle Stowers | Miami Marlins | vs George Klassen | 26.1% | No Home Run |
| #12 | Tyler O'Neill | — | vs Nathan Eovaldi | 25.9% | No Home Run |
| #13 | Kazuma Okamoto | — | vs Zack Wheeler | 25.2% | No Home Run |
| #14 | Jac Caglianone | Kansas City Royals | vs Unknown Pitcher | 24.4% | No Home Run |
| #15 | Hunter Goodman | Colorado Rockies | vs Kyle Leahy | 24.2% | No Home Run |
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Eovaldi | Baltimore Orioles | 6.1 | 2 | -4.1 | |
| Payton Tolle | Athletics | 5.8 | 14 | +8.2 | |
| Jack Perkins | Boston Red Sox | 5.8 | 3 | -2.8 | |
| Zack Wheeler | Toronto Blue Jays | 5.8 | 6 | +0.2 | On Target |
| Drew Rasmussen | Seattle Mariners | 5.8 | 8 | +2.2 | |
| Parker Messick | Chicago White Sox | 5.7 | 8 | +2.3 | |
| Max Fried | Atlanta Braves | 5.7 | 7 | +1.3 | |
| Logan Gilbert | Tampa Bay Rays | 5.6 | 6 | +0.4 | On Target |
| Shane Drohan | Minnesota Twins | 5.6 | 4 | -1.6 | |
| José Soriano | Philadelphia Phillies | 5.5 | 3 | -2.5 | |
| Kevin Gausman | Kansas City Royals | 5.2 | 4 | -1.2 | |
| Roki Sasaki | Arizona Diamondbacks | 5.1 | 5 | -0.1 | On Target |
| Ronel Blanco | San Diego Padres | 5.1 | 1 | -4.1 | |
| Tyler Mahle | New York Yankees | 5.0 | 9 | +4.0 | |
| Shane Baz | Texas Rangers | 4.7 | 9 | +4.3 |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Player | Team | Matchup | Hit Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani | — | vs Merrill Kelly | 63.3% | No Hit |
| CJ Abrams | Washington Nationals | vs Chase Petty | 62.3% | Hit |
| Kyle Stowers | Miami Marlins | vs George Klassen | 62.0% | Hit |
| Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | vs José Soriano | 61.8% | Hit |
| Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | vs Robbie Ray | 61.5% | Hit |
| Freddie Freeman | Los Angeles Dodgers | vs Merrill Kelly | 61.4% | No Hit |
| Seiya Suzuki | Chicago Cubs | vs Daniel Lynch IV | 61.3% | Hit |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | San Diego Padres | vs Ronel Blanco | 61.2% | Hit |
| Brett Baty | — | vs Carmen Mlodzinski | 61.2% | Hit |
| Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs José Soriano | 61.1% | Hit |
| Alec Burleson | — | vs Ryan Feltner | 61.0% | No Hit |
| Elly De La Cruz | Cincinnati Reds | vs Cade Cavalli | 61.0% | Hit |
| Rafael Devers | — | vs Keider Montero | 61.0% | Hit |
| Brandon Marsh | Philadelphia Phillies | vs José Soriano | 60.9% | No Hit |
| Jake Bauers | — | vs Zebby Matthews | 60.9% | No Hit |
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Home Run Calls
- Willy Adames — 29.7% HR probability
- Joc Pederson — 23.9% HR probability
- Carter Jensen — 23.9% HR probability
Top Strikeout Calls
- Payton Tolle — proj 5.8, recorded 14
- Drew Rasmussen — proj 5.8, recorded 8
- Zack Wheeler — proj 5.8, recorded 6
Biggest Surprises
- Payton Tolle — proj 5.8, recorded 14
- Shane Baz — proj 4.7, recorded 9
Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Willy Adames. Model HR probability 29.7% — result: Home Run.
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