MLB Results — August 7, 2026

MLB Model Results — August 7, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

#1 Coby Mayo— · vs Nathan Eovaldi 31.1% No Home Run

#2 Heriberto Hernández— · vs George Klassen 31.0% No Home Run

#3 Jac Caglianone— · vs Kevin Gausman 31.0% No Home Run

#4 Salvador Perez— · vs Kevin Gausman 30.4% No Home Run

#5 Willy Adames— · vs Keider Montero 29.7% Home Run

#6 Shohei Ohtani— · vs Merrill Kelly 29.0% No Home Run

#7 Royce Lewis— · vs Shane Drohan 28.0% No Home Run

#8 Owen Caissie— · vs George Klassen 27.9% No Home Run

#9 Yordan Alvarez— · vs Robbie Ray 26.5% No Home Run

#10 Kyle Schwarber— · vs José Soriano 26.4% No Home Run

#11 Kyle Stowers— · vs George Klassen 26.1% No Home Run

#12 Tyler O'Neill— · vs Nathan Eovaldi 25.9% No Home Run

#13 Kazuma Okamoto— · vs Zack Wheeler 25.2% No Home Run

#14 Jac Caglianone— · vs Unknown Pitcher 24.4% No Home Run

#15 Hunter Goodman— · vs Kyle Leahy 24.2% No Home Run

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Nathan Eovaldivs Baltimore Orioles 6.1 2 -4.1

Payton Tollevs Athletics 5.8 14 +8.2

Jack Perkinsvs Boston Red Sox 5.8 3 -2.8

Zack Wheelervs Toronto Blue Jays 5.8 6 +0.2On target

Drew Rasmussenvs Seattle Mariners 5.8 8 +2.2

Parker Messickvs Chicago White Sox 5.7 8 +2.3

Max Friedvs Atlanta Braves 5.7 7 +1.3

Logan Gilbertvs Tampa Bay Rays 5.6 6 +0.4On target

Shane Drohanvs Minnesota Twins 5.6 4 -1.6

José Sorianovs Philadelphia Phillies 5.5 3 -2.5

Kevin Gausmanvs Kansas City Royals 5.2 4 -1.2

Roki Sasakivs Arizona Diamondbacks 5.1 5 -0.1On target

Ronel Blancovs San Diego Padres 5.1 1 -4.1

Tyler Mahlevs New York Yankees 5.0 9 +4.0

Shane Bazvs Texas Rangers 4.7 9 +4.3

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Shohei Ohtani— · vs Merrill Kelly 63.3% No Hit

CJ Abrams— · vs Chase Petty 62.3% Hit

Kyle Stowers— · vs George Klassen 62.0% Hit

Bryce Harper— · vs José Soriano 61.8% Hit

Yordan Alvarez— · vs Robbie Ray 61.5% Hit

Freddie Freeman— · vs Merrill Kelly 61.4% No Hit

Seiya Suzuki— · vs Daniel Lynch IV 61.3% Hit

Fernando Tatis Jr.— · vs Ronel Blanco 61.2% Hit

Brett Baty— · vs Carmen Mlodzinski 61.2% Hit

Kyle Schwarber— · vs José Soriano 61.1% Hit

Alec Burleson— · vs Ryan Feltner 61.0% No Hit

Elly De La Cruz— · vs Cade Cavalli 61.0% Hit

Rafael Devers— · vs Keider Montero 61.0% Hit

Brandon Marsh— · vs José Soriano 60.9% No Hit

Jake BauersMilwaukee Brewers · vs Zebby Matthews 60.9% No Hit

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

Willy Adames — 29.7% HR probability
Joc Pederson — 23.9% HR probability
Carter Jensen — 23.9% HR probability

Top Strikeout Calls

Payton Tolle — proj 5.8, recorded 14
Drew Rasmussen — proj 5.8, recorded 8
Zack Wheeler — proj 5.8, recorded 6

Biggest Surprises

Payton Tolle — proj 5.8, recorded 14
Shane Baz — proj 4.7, recorded 9

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Willy Adames. Model HR probability 29.7% — result: Home Run.

Live on EdgeRanked

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