Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — August 7, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
16
Games covered
429
Hitters evaluated
31
Pitchers evaluated
August 7, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
No graded home run projections are available for this slate.
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Eovaldi | Baltimore Orioles | 6.1 | 2 | -4.1 | |
| Payton Tolle | Athletics | 5.8 | 14 | +8.2 | |
| Jack Perkins | Boston Red Sox | 5.8 | 3 | -2.8 | |
| Zack Wheeler | Toronto Blue Jays | 5.8 | 6 | +0.2 | On Target |
| Drew Rasmussen | Seattle Mariners | 5.8 | 8 | +2.2 | |
| Parker Messick | Chicago White Sox | 5.7 | 8 | +2.3 | |
| Max Fried | Atlanta Braves | 5.7 | 7 | +1.3 | |
| Logan Gilbert | Tampa Bay Rays | 5.6 | 6 | +0.4 | On Target |
| Shane Drohan | Minnesota Twins | 5.6 | 4 | -1.6 | |
| José Soriano | Philadelphia Phillies | 5.5 | 3 | -2.5 | |
| Kevin Gausman | Kansas City Royals | 5.2 | 4 | -1.2 | |
| Roki Sasaki | Arizona Diamondbacks | 5.1 | 5 | -0.1 | On Target |
| Ronel Blanco | San Diego Padres | 5.1 | 1 | -4.1 | |
| Tyler Mahle | New York Yankees | 5.0 | 9 | +4.0 | |
| Shane Baz | Texas Rangers | 4.7 | 9 | +4.3 |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
No graded hit projections are available for this slate.
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Strikeout Calls
- Payton Tolle — proj 5.8, recorded 14
- Drew Rasmussen — proj 5.8, recorded 8
- Zack Wheeler — proj 5.8, recorded 6
Biggest Surprises
- Payton Tolle — proj 5.8, recorded 14
- Shane Baz — proj 4.7, recorded 9
Highest Performing Projection — Strikeout Projection: Payton Tolle. Projected 5.8 strikeouts — recorded 14.
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