Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — August 6, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
11
Games covered
295
Hitters evaluated
22
Pitchers evaluated
August 6, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Rank | Player | Team | Matchup | HR Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Coby Mayo | Baltimore Orioles | vs Ryan Johnson | 31.1% | No Home Run |
| #2 | Kazuma Okamoto | Toronto Blue Jays | vs David Peterson | 31.0% | No Home Run |
| #3 | Brandon Lowe | — | vs Dustin May | 30.6% | Home Run |
| #4 | Jahmai Jones | — | vs Luis Castillo | 30.1% | No Home Run |
| #5 | Jac Caglianone | — | vs Bailey Ober | 27.9% | No Home Run |
| #6 | Kyle Schwarber | — | vs Miles Mikolas | 26.2% | No Home Run |
| #7 | Michael Conforto | — | vs Dylan Cease | 25.0% | No Home Run |
| #8 | Salvador Perez | — | vs Bailey Ober | 24.4% | No Home Run |
| #9 | Pete Alonso | Baltimore Orioles | vs Ryan Johnson | 24.3% | No Home Run |
| #10 | Francisco Lindor | — | vs Foster Griffin | 23.9% | Home Run |
| #11 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | — | vs Dylan Cease | 23.9% | No Home Run |
| #12 | Heriberto Hernández | — | vs Martín Pérez | 23.9% | No Home Run |
| #13 | Andrew Benintendi | — | vs Ranger Suarez | 23.9% | No Home Run |
| #14 | Carter Jensen | — | vs Bailey Ober | 23.9% | No Home Run |
| #15 | Munetaka Murakami | — | vs Ranger Suarez | 23.8% | No Home Run |
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Cease | Chicago Cubs | 8.5 | 10 | +1.5 | |
| Nolan McLean | Cleveland Guardians | 6.4 | 8 | +1.6 | |
| Cristopher Sánchez | Washington Nationals | 6.4 | 6 | -0.4 | On Target |
| Braxton Ashcraft | Milwaukee Brewers | 5.7 | 5 | -0.7 | On Target |
| Ranger Suarez | Chicago White Sox | 5.6 | 3 | -2.6 | |
| Dustin May | Pittsburgh Pirates | 5.3 | 5 | -0.3 | On Target |
| Bryce Miller | Detroit Tigers | 5.2 | 5 | -0.2 | On Target |
| Foster Griffin | New York Mets | 5.1 | 6 | +0.9 | On Target |
| Michael Wacha | Minnesota Twins | 5.0 | 1 | -4.0 | |
| Framber Valdez | Seattle Mariners | 4.5 | 5 | +0.5 | On Target |
| Brandon Young | Los Angeles Angels | 4.5 | 4 | -0.5 | On Target |
| David Peterson | Toronto Blue Jays | 4.5 | 3 | -1.5 | |
| Bailey Ober | Kansas City Royals | 4.5 | 0 | -4.5 | |
| Janson Junk | Atlanta Braves | 4.4 | 1 | -3.4 | |
| Luis Castillo | Boston Red Sox | 4.4 | 5 | +0.6 | On Target |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Player | Team | Matchup | Hit Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | — | vs Kohl Drake | 64.5% | Hit |
| Luis Arraez | — | vs Miles Mikolas | 64.5% | Hit |
| Bryce Harper | — | vs Miles Mikolas | 64.5% | Hit |
| Kyle Schwarber | — | vs Miles Mikolas | 63.2% | Hit |
| Brandon Marsh | — | vs Miles Mikolas | 63.0% | Hit |
| Randy Arozarena | — | vs Framber Valdez | 62.1% | Hit |
| Otto Lopez | — | vs Martín Pérez | 62.0% | Hit |
| Elly De La Cruz | — | vs Mason Barnett | 61.6% | Hit |
| Wilyer Abreu | — | vs Luis Castillo | 61.5% | Hit |
| Kyle Stowers | — | vs Martín Pérez | 61.1% | Hit |
| Tyler Soderstrom | — | vs Andrew Abbott | 60.7% | Hit |
| Trea Turner | — | vs Miles Mikolas | 60.6% | Hit |
| Gunnar Henderson | Baltimore Orioles | vs Ryan Johnson | 60.1% | No Hit |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | — | vs Bailey Ober | 60.0% | Hit |
| CJ Abrams | Washington Nationals | vs Cristopher Sánchez | 59.8% | No Hit |
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Home Run Calls
- Brandon Lowe — 30.6% HR probability
- Francisco Lindor — 23.9% HR probability
- Marcus Semien — 18.9% HR probability
Top Strikeout Calls
- Dylan Cease — proj 8.5, recorded 10
- Nolan McLean — proj 6.4, recorded 8
- Foster Griffin — proj 5.1, recorded 6
Biggest Surprises
- Bailey Ober — proj 4.5, recorded 0
- Michael Wacha — proj 5.0, recorded 1
Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Brandon Lowe. Model HR probability 30.6% — result: Home Run.
Live on EdgeRanked
See today's slate the same way
This is a graded past slate. EdgeRanked publishes the same home run, strikeout, and hit probability analysis for today's games before first pitch.
3-day free trial. The full results archive stays free.
Explore More