Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — July 28, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
16
Games covered
459
Hitters evaluated
32
Pitchers evaluated
July 28, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Rank | Player | Team | Matchup | HR Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Hunter Goodman | Colorado Rockies | vs Michael King | 28.4% | No Home Run |
| #2 | Jahmai Jones | — | vs Gage Jump | 26.1% | No Home Run |
| #3 | Brandon Lowe | — | vs Brandon Pfaadt | 25.4% | Home Run |
| #4 | Heriberto Hernández | Miami Marlins | vs Aaron Nola | 25.3% | No Home Run |
| #5 | Shohei Ohtani | Los Angeles Dodgers | vs Luis Castillo | 25.0% | Home Run |
| #6 | Zach Neto | — | vs Peter Lambert | 25.0% | No Home Run |
| #7 | Jac Caglianone | — | vs Taj Bradley | 24.4% | No Home Run |
| #8 | James Wood | — | vs Shane Bieber | 24.3% | No Home Run |
| #9 | Yordan Alvarez | — | vs Reid Detmers | 24.2% | Home Run |
| #10 | Coby Mayo | Baltimore Orioles | vs Troy Melton | 24.2% | No Home Run |
| #11 | Kazuma Okamoto | Toronto Blue Jays | vs Cade Cavalli | 24.2% | Home Run |
| #12 | Kyle Manzardo | — | vs Chase Burns | 24.1% | No Home Run |
| #13 | Mickey Moniak | — | vs Michael King | 23.9% | Home Run |
| #14 | Michael Conforto | Chicago Cubs | vs Unknown Pitcher | 23.9% | No Home Run |
| #15 | Colson Montgomery | Chicago White Sox | vs Gerrit Cole | 23.9% | No Home Run |
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Sale | New York Mets | 7.3 | 9 | +1.7 | |
| Gavin Williams | Cincinnati Reds | 7.0 | 12 | +5.0 | |
| Griffin Jax | Texas Rangers | 6.0 | 10 | +4.0 | |
| Christian Scott | Atlanta Braves | 5.9 | 7 | +1.1 | |
| Logan Henderson | San Francisco Giants | 5.7 | 7 | +1.3 | |
| Taj Bradley | Kansas City Royals | 5.7 | 10 | +4.3 | |
| Troy Melton | Baltimore Orioles | 5.7 | 5 | -0.7 | On Target |
| Gage Jump | Boston Red Sox | 5.6 | 7 | +1.4 | |
| Reid Detmers | Houston Astros | 5.6 | 9 | +3.4 | |
| Peter Lambert | Los Angeles Angels | 5.6 | 6 | +0.4 | On Target |
| Chase Burns | Cleveland Guardians | 5.5 | 4 | -1.5 | |
| Cade Cavalli | Toronto Blue Jays | 5.5 | 3 | -2.5 | |
| Gerrit Cole | Chicago White Sox | 5.4 | 7 | +1.6 | |
| Dean Kremer | Detroit Tigers | 5.2 | 4 | -1.2 | |
| Landen Roupp | Milwaukee Brewers | 5.1 | 1 | -4.1 |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Player | Team | Matchup | Hit Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani | Los Angeles Dodgers | vs Luis Castillo | 63.4% | Hit |
| CJ Abrams | Washington Nationals | vs Shane Bieber | 62.6% | Hit |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | San Diego Padres | vs Michael Lorenzen | 62.2% | Hit |
| Yordan Alvarez | — | vs Reid Detmers | 62.1% | Hit |
| Tyler Soderstrom | — | vs Jake Bennett | 61.9% | No Hit |
| Freddie Freeman | — | vs Luis Castillo | 61.7% | Hit |
| Paul Goldschmidt | — | vs Anthony Kay | 61.5% | No Hit |
| Elly De La Cruz | Cincinnati Reds | vs Slade Cecconi | 61.4% | No Hit |
| Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Sandy Alcantara | 61.0% | Hit |
| Ben Rice | New York Yankees | vs Anthony Kay | 60.8% | No Hit |
| James Wood | — | vs Shane Bieber | 60.8% | No Hit |
| Byron Buxton | — | vs Seth Lugo | 60.7% | No Hit |
| Yandy Díaz | Tampa Bay Rays | vs Cal Quantrill | 60.6% | No Hit |
| Randy Arozarena | Seattle Mariners | vs Justin Wrobleski | 60.6% | No Hit |
| Seiya Suzuki | Chicago Cubs | vs Michael McGreevy | 60.5% | Hit |
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Home Run Calls
- Brandon Lowe — 25.4% HR probability
- Shohei Ohtani — 25.0% HR probability
- Yordan Alvarez — 24.2% HR probability
Top Strikeout Calls
- Chris Sale — proj 7.3, recorded 9
- Gavin Williams — proj 7.0, recorded 12
- Griffin Jax — proj 6.0, recorded 10
Biggest Surprises
- Gavin Williams — proj 7.0, recorded 12
- Taj Bradley — proj 5.7, recorded 10
Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Brandon Lowe. Model HR probability 25.4% — result: Home Run.
Live on EdgeRanked
See today's slate the same way
This is a graded past slate. EdgeRanked publishes the same home run, strikeout, and hit probability analysis for today's games before first pitch.
3-day free trial. The full results archive stays free.
Explore More