MLB Results — July 28, 2026

MLB Model Results — July 28, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

#1 Hunter Goodman— · vs Michael King 28.4% No Home Run

#2 Jahmai Jones— · vs Gage Jump 26.1% No Home Run

#3 Brandon Lowe— · vs Brandon Pfaadt 25.4% Home Run

#4 Heriberto Hernández— · vs Aaron Nola 25.3% No Home Run

#5 Shohei Ohtani— · vs Luis Castillo 25.0% Home Run

#6 Zach Neto— · vs Peter Lambert 25.0% No Home Run

#7 Jac Caglianone— · vs Taj Bradley 24.4% No Home Run

#8 James Wood— · vs Shane Bieber 24.3% No Home Run

#9 Yordan Alvarez— · vs Reid Detmers 24.2% Home Run

#10 Coby Mayo— · vs Troy Melton 24.2% No Home Run

#11 Kazuma Okamoto— · vs Cade Cavalli 24.2% Home Run

#12 Kyle Manzardo— · vs Chase Burns 24.1% No Home Run

#13 Mickey Moniak— · vs Michael King 23.9% Home Run

#14 Michael Conforto— · vs Unknown Pitcher 23.9% No Home Run

#15 Colson Montgomery— · vs Gerrit Cole 23.9% No Home Run

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Chris Salevs New York Mets 7.3 9 +1.7

Gavin Williamsvs Cincinnati Reds 7.0 12 +5.0

Griffin Jaxvs Texas Rangers 6.0 10 +4.0

Christian Scottvs Atlanta Braves 5.9 7 +1.1

Logan Hendersonvs San Francisco Giants 5.7 7 +1.3

Taj Bradleyvs Kansas City Royals 5.7 10 +4.3

Troy Meltonvs Baltimore Orioles 5.7 5 -0.7On target

Gage Jumpvs Boston Red Sox 5.6 7 +1.4

Reid Detmersvs Houston Astros 5.6 9 +3.4

Peter Lambertvs Los Angeles Angels 5.6 6 +0.4On target

Chase Burnsvs Cleveland Guardians 5.5 4 -1.5

Cade Cavallivs Toronto Blue Jays 5.5 3 -2.5

Gerrit Colevs Chicago White Sox 5.4 7 +1.6

Dean Kremervs Detroit Tigers 5.2 4 -1.2

Landen Rouppvs Milwaukee Brewers 5.1 1 -4.1

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Shohei Ohtani— · vs Luis Castillo 63.4% Hit

CJ Abrams— · vs Shane Bieber 62.6% Hit

Fernando Tatis Jr.— · vs Michael Lorenzen 62.2% Hit

Yordan Alvarez— · vs Reid Detmers 62.1% Hit

Tyler Soderstrom— · vs Jake Bennett 61.9% No Hit

Freddie Freeman— · vs Luis Castillo 61.7% Hit

Paul Goldschmidt— · vs Anthony Kay 61.5% No Hit

Elly De La Cruz— · vs Slade Cecconi 61.4% No Hit

Bryce Harper— · vs Sandy Alcantara 61.0% Hit

Ben Rice— · vs Anthony Kay 60.8% No Hit

James Wood— · vs Shane Bieber 60.8% No Hit

Byron Buxton— · vs Seth Lugo 60.7% No Hit

Yandy DíazTampa Bay Rays · vs Cal Quantrill 60.6% No Hit

Randy Arozarena— · vs Justin Wrobleski 60.6% No Hit

Seiya Suzuki— · vs Michael McGreevy 60.5% Hit

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

Brandon Lowe — 25.4% HR probability
Shohei Ohtani — 25.0% HR probability
Yordan Alvarez — 24.2% HR probability

Top Strikeout Calls

Chris Sale — proj 7.3, recorded 9
Gavin Williams — proj 7.0, recorded 12
Griffin Jax — proj 6.0, recorded 10

Biggest Surprises

Gavin Williams — proj 7.0, recorded 12
Taj Bradley — proj 5.7, recorded 10

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Brandon Lowe. Model HR probability 25.4% — result: Home Run.

Live on EdgeRanked

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