Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — July 28, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
16
Games covered
459
Hitters evaluated
32
Pitchers evaluated
July 28, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
No graded home run projections are available for this slate.
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gavin Williams | Cincinnati Reds | 7.0 | 12 | +5.0 | |
| Griffin Jax | Texas Rangers | 6.0 | 10 | +4.0 | |
| Logan Henderson | San Francisco Giants | 5.7 | 7 | +1.3 | |
| Taj Bradley | Kansas City Royals | 5.7 | 10 | +4.3 | |
| Troy Melton | Baltimore Orioles | 5.7 | 5 | -0.7 | On Target |
| Gage Jump | Boston Red Sox | 5.6 | 7 | +1.4 | |
| Reid Detmers | Houston Astros | 5.6 | 9 | +3.4 | |
| Peter Lambert | Los Angeles Angels | 5.6 | 6 | +0.4 | On Target |
| Chase Burns | Cleveland Guardians | 5.5 | 4 | -1.5 | |
| Cade Cavalli | Toronto Blue Jays | 5.5 | 3 | -2.5 | |
| Gerrit Cole | Chicago White Sox | 5.4 | 7 | +1.6 | |
| Dean Kremer | Detroit Tigers | 5.2 | 4 | -1.2 | |
| Landen Roupp | Milwaukee Brewers | 5.1 | 1 | -4.1 | |
| Aaron Nola | Miami Marlins | 5.1 | 4 | -1.1 | |
| Justin Wrobleski | Seattle Mariners | 5.1 | 7 | +1.9 |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
No graded hit projections are available for this slate.
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Strikeout Calls
- Gavin Williams — proj 7.0, recorded 12
- Griffin Jax — proj 6.0, recorded 10
- Logan Henderson — proj 5.7, recorded 7
Biggest Surprises
- Gavin Williams — proj 7.0, recorded 12
- Taj Bradley — proj 5.7, recorded 10
Highest Performing Projection — Strikeout Projection: Gavin Williams. Projected 7.0 strikeouts — recorded 12.
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