MLB Results — July 17, 2026

MLB Model Results — July 17, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

#1 Hunter Goodman— · vs Brady Singer 31.6% No Home Run

#2 Mickey Moniak— · vs Brady Singer 31.1% No Home Run

#3 Kazuma Okamoto— · vs Anthony Kay 31.0% No Home Run

#4 Coby Mayo— · vs Peter Lambert 27.3% No Home Run

#5 Yordan Alvarez— · vs Dean Kremer 27.0% No Home Run

#6 Jac Caglianone— · vs Michael King 26.6% No Home Run

#7 James Wood— · vs Gage Jump 26.6% No Home Run

#8 Brandon Lowe— · vs Gavin Williams 25.0% No Home Run

#9 Michael Conforto— · vs Bailey Ober 25.0% No Home Run

#10 Royce Lewis— · vs Colin Rea 24.8% No Home Run

#11 Elly De La Cruz— · vs Gabriel Hughes 24.4% Home Run

#12 Salvador Perez— · vs Michael King 24.2% No Home Run

#13 Matt Olson— · vs Cal Quantrill 24.1% Home Run

#14 Heliot Ramos— · vs Bryce Miller 24.1% No Home Run

#15 Carter Jensen— · vs Michael King 23.9% No Home Run

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Chris Salevs Texas Rangers 6.6 6 -0.6On target

Gavin Williamsvs Pittsburgh Pirates 6.4 11 +4.6

Reid Detmersvs Detroit Tigers 6.3 7 +0.7On target

Logan Hendersonvs Miami Marlins 5.7 4 -1.7

Jared Jonesvs Cleveland Guardians 5.6 9 +3.4

Troy Meltonvs Los Angeles Angels 5.5 9 +3.5

Landen Rouppvs Seattle Mariners 5.4 2 -3.4

Griffin Jaxvs Boston Red Sox 5.4 6 +0.6On target

Bryce Millervs San Francisco Giants 5.4 6 +0.6On target

Peter Lambertvs Baltimore Orioles 5.3 10 +4.7

Dean Kremervs Houston Astros 5.3 5 -0.3On target

Gerrit Colevs Los Angeles Dodgers 4.9 8 +3.1

Gage Jumpvs Washington Nationals 4.9 8 +3.1

Gabriel Hughesvs Cincinnati Reds 4.9 6 +1.1

Cal Quantrillvs Atlanta Braves 4.2 3 -1.2

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Shohei Ohtani— · vs Gerrit Cole 63.5% No Hit

Ben Rice— · vs Roki Sasaki 63.0% Hit

Fernando Tatis Jr.— · vs Seth Lugo 62.3% Hit

Yordan Alvarez— · vs Dean Kremer 62.2% Hit

Elly De La Cruz— · vs Gabriel Hughes 61.6% Hit

TJ Rumfield— · vs Brady Singer 61.4% Hit

Mickey Moniak— · vs Brady Singer 61.3% No Hit

Seiya Suzuki— · vs Bailey Ober 61.3% Hit

Jake McCarthy— · vs Brady Singer 61.1% Hit

Tyler Soderstrom— · vs Cade Cavalli 60.9% Hit

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.— · vs Anthony Kay 60.9% Hit

Jake BauersMilwaukee Brewers · vs Sandy Alcantara 60.9% No Hit

Trevor Larnach— · vs Colin Rea 60.8% Hit

Bobby Witt Jr.— · vs Michael King 60.7% No Hit

Freddie Freeman— · vs Gerrit Cole 60.7% No Hit

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

Elly De La Cruz — 24.4% HR probability
Matt Olson — 24.1% HR probability
Austin Riley — 23.8% HR probability

Top Strikeout Calls

Gavin Williams — proj 6.4, recorded 11
Reid Detmers — proj 6.3, recorded 7
Jared Jones — proj 5.6, recorded 9

Biggest Surprises

Cade Cavalli — proj 4.2, recorded 9
Peter Lambert — proj 5.3, recorded 10

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Elly De La Cruz. Model HR probability 24.4% — result: Home Run.

Live on EdgeRanked

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