MLB Results — June 18, 2026

Slate Summary

MLB Model Results — June 18, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Games covered

239

Hitters evaluated

Pitchers evaluated

June 18, 2026

Slate date

Home Run Threats

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

Rank	Player	Team	Matchup	HR Probability	Result
#1	Cal Raleigh	Seattle Mariners	vs Shane Baz	15.8%	No Home Run
#2	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	—	vs Sonny Gray	15.6%	Home Run
#3	Byron Buxton	Minnesota Twins	vs Jack Leiter	15.5%	No Home Run
#4	Pete Alonso	Baltimore Orioles	vs Bryan Woo	15.3%	No Home Run
#5	Colson Montgomery	Chicago White Sox	vs Ryan Weathers	14.4%	Home Run
#6	Bryce Harper	—	vs Sean Manaea	14.1%	No Home Run
#7	Taylor Ward	—	vs Bryan Woo	13.6%	No Home Run
#8	Gunnar Henderson	Baltimore Orioles	vs Bryan Woo	13.4%	No Home Run
#9	Juan Soto	—	vs Aaron Nola	13.4%	Home Run
#10	Royce Lewis	—	vs Jack Leiter	13.1%	No Home Run
#11	George Springer	—	vs Sonny Gray	12.8%	No Home Run
#12	Kyle Schwarber	—	vs Sean Manaea	12.7%	No Home Run
#13	Nick Kurtz	—	vs Unknown Pitcher	12.5%	No Home Run
#14	Shea Langeliers	—	vs Unknown Pitcher	12.4%	Home Run
#15	Jake Burger	Texas Rangers	vs Joe Ryan	12.1%	No Home Run

Strikeouts

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Pitcher	Opponent	Projected Ks	Actual Ks	Difference
Ryan Weathers	Chicago White Sox	5.8	8	+2.2
Bryan Woo	Baltimore Orioles	5.6	9	+3.4
Joe Ryan	Texas Rangers	5.6	7	+1.4
Sean Burke	New York Yankees	5.5	8	+2.5
Gage Jump	Los Angeles Angels	5.3	7	+1.7
Trey Yesavage	Boston Red Sox	5.1	6	+0.9	On Target
Parker Messick	Milwaukee Brewers	5.1	9	+3.9
Shane Baz	Seattle Mariners	5.1	9	+3.9
Jack Leiter	Minnesota Twins	5.1	4	-1.1
Noah Cameron	St. Louis Cardinals	5.1	6	+0.9	On Target
Aaron Nola	New York Mets	4.9	6	+1.1
Sonny Gray	Toronto Blue Jays	4.7	4	-0.7	On Target
Matthew Liberatore	Kansas City Royals	4.2	2	-2.2
Sean Manaea	Philadelphia Phillies	4.0	5	+1.0	On Target
Shane Drohan	Cleveland Guardians	3.1	3	-0.1	On Target

Hit Probability

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Player	Team	Matchup	Hit Probability	Result
Anthony Volpe	New York Yankees	vs Sean Burke	60.1%	Hit
Brandon Valenzuela	—	vs Sonny Gray	59.2%	Hit
George Springer	—	vs Sonny Gray	58.7%	Hit
Ernie Clement	Toronto Blue Jays	vs Sonny Gray	58.7%	Hit
Yohendrick Piñango	—	vs Sonny Gray	57.9%	Hit
Royce Lewis	—	vs Jack Leiter	57.8%	No Hit
Andrew Benintendi	—	vs Ryan Weathers	57.3%	Hit
Nathan Lukes	—	vs Sonny Gray	57.3%	Hit
Jesús Sánchez	—	vs Sonny Gray	57.2%	Hit
Austin Hedges	Cleveland Guardians	vs Shane Drohan	56.8%	No Hit
Leody Taveras	—	vs Bryan Woo	56.6%	Hit
Alika Williams	—	vs Unknown Pitcher	56.3%	No Hit
Joc Pederson	Texas Rangers	vs Joe Ryan	56.2%	No Hit
Christian Yelich	Milwaukee Brewers	vs Parker Messick	56.2%	Hit
Ceddanne Rafaela	—	vs Trey Yesavage	56.2%	Hit

Model Highlights

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.. Model HR probability 15.6% — result: Home Run.

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