MLB Results — June 18, 2026

MLB Model Results — June 18, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

#1 Cal Raleigh— · vs Shane Baz 15.8% No Home Run

#2 Vladimir Guerrero Jr.— · vs Sonny Gray 15.6% Home Run

#3 Byron Buxton— · vs Jack Leiter 15.5% No Home Run

#4 Pete Alonso— · vs Bryan Woo 15.3% No Home Run

#5 Colson Montgomery— · vs Ryan Weathers 14.4% Home Run

#6 Bryce Harper— · vs Sean Manaea 14.1% No Home Run

#7 Taylor Ward— · vs Bryan Woo 13.6% No Home Run

#8 Juan Soto— · vs Aaron Nola 13.4% Home Run

#9 Gunnar Henderson— · vs Bryan Woo 13.4% No Home Run

#10 Rafael Devers— · vs Martín Pérez 13.3% Home Run

#11 Royce Lewis— · vs Jack Leiter 13.1% No Home Run

#12 George Springer— · vs Sonny Gray 12.8% No Home Run

#13 Kyle Schwarber— · vs Sean Manaea 12.7% No Home Run

#14 Nick Kurtz— · vs Unknown Pitcher 12.5% No Home Run

#15 Austin Riley— · vs Landen Roupp 12.5% No Home Run

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Ryan Weathersvs Chicago White Sox 5.8 8 +2.2

Bryan Woovs Baltimore Orioles 5.6 9 +3.4

Joe Ryanvs Texas Rangers 5.6 7 +1.4

Sean Burkevs New York Yankees 5.5 8 +2.5

Gage Jumpvs Los Angeles Angels 5.3 7 +1.7

Trey Yesavagevs Boston Red Sox 5.1 6 +0.9On target

Parker Messickvs Milwaukee Brewers 5.1 9 +3.9

Shane Bazvs Seattle Mariners 5.1 9 +3.9

Jack Leitervs Minnesota Twins 5.1 4 -1.1

Noah Cameronvs St. Louis Cardinals 5.1 6 +0.9On target

Aaron Nolavs New York Mets 4.9 6 +1.1

Sonny Grayvs Toronto Blue Jays 4.7 4 -0.7On target

Matthew Liberatorevs Kansas City Royals 4.2 2 -2.2

Sean Manaeavs Philadelphia Phillies 4.0 5 +1.0On target

Shane Drohanvs Cleveland Guardians 3.1 3 -0.1On target

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Anthony Volpe— · vs Sean Burke 60.1% Hit

Brandon Valenzuela— · vs Sonny Gray 59.2% Hit

George Springer— · vs Sonny Gray 58.7% Hit

Ernie Clement— · vs Sonny Gray 58.7% Hit

Yohendrick Piñango— · vs Sonny Gray 57.9% Hit

Royce Lewis— · vs Jack Leiter 57.8% No Hit

Nathan Lukes— · vs Sonny Gray 57.3% Hit

Andrew Benintendi— · vs Ryan Weathers 57.3% Hit

Jesús Sánchez— · vs Sonny Gray 57.2% Hit

Austin Hedges— · vs Shane Drohan 56.8% No Hit

Leody Taveras— · vs Bryan Woo 56.6% Hit

Alika Williams— · vs Unknown Pitcher 56.3% No Hit

Joc Pederson— · vs Joe Ryan 56.2% No Hit

Ceddanne Rafaela— · vs Trey Yesavage 56.2% Hit

Connor Wong— · vs Trey Yesavage 56.2% No Hit

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. — 15.6% HR probability
Colson Montgomery — 14.4% HR probability
Juan Soto — 13.4% HR probability

Top Strikeout Calls

Ryan Weathers — proj 5.8, recorded 8
Bryan Woo — proj 5.6, recorded 9
Joe Ryan — proj 5.6, recorded 7

Biggest Surprises

Shane Baz — proj 5.1, recorded 9
Parker Messick — proj 5.1, recorded 9

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.. Model HR probability 15.6% — result: Home Run.

Live on EdgeRanked

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