MLB Results — June 17, 2026

MLB Model Results — June 17, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

#1 Ketel Marte— · vs Sam Aldegheri 30.0% No Home Run

#2 Mike Trout— · vs Eduardo Rodriguez 30.0% No Home Run

#3 Bryce Harper— · vs Sandy Alcantara 30.0% No Home Run

#4 Christian Walker— · vs Casey Mize 30.0% No Home Run

#5 Kyle Schwarber— · vs Sandy Alcantara 30.0% No Home Run

#6 Juan Soto— · vs Nick Lodolo 30.0% No Home Run

#7 Fernando Tatis Jr.— · vs Kyle Leahy 30.0% No Home Run

#8 Yordan Alvarez— · vs Casey Mize 29.6% No Home Run

#9 Mark Vientos— · vs Nick Lodolo 27.8% No Home Run

#10 Kerry Carpenter— · vs Peter Lambert 26.5% Home Run

#11 Salvador Perez— · vs Zack Littell 26.2% No Home Run

#12 Junior CamineroTampa Bay Rays · vs Shohei Ohtani 25.8% No Home Run

#13 Colson Montgomery— · vs Carlos Rodón 25.5% Home Run

#14 Bobby Witt Jr.— · vs Zack Littell 25.4% No Home Run

#15 Brandon Lowe— · vs Aaron Civale 25.1% No Home Run

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Nolan McLeanvs Cincinnati Reds 6.0 9 +3.0

Braxton Ashcraftvs Athletics 5.5 7 +1.5

Carlos Rodónvs Chicago White Sox 5.2 7 +1.8

Shohei Ohtanivs Tampa Bay Rays 5.1 5 -0.1On target

George Kirbyvs Baltimore Orioles 5.1 5 -0.1On target

Gavin Williamsvs Milwaukee Brewers 5.1 4 -1.1

Casey Mizevs Houston Astros 5.0 3 -2.0

Sandy Alcantaravs Philadelphia Phillies 4.9 6 +1.1

Peter Lambertvs Detroit Tigers 4.9 5 +0.1On target

Kyle Bradishvs Seattle Mariners 4.9 12 +7.1

Brandon Sproatvs Cleveland Guardians 4.8 6 +1.2

Javier Assadvs Colorado Rockies 4.6 1 -3.6

JR Ritchievs San Francisco Giants 4.5 4 -0.5On target

Kyle Leahyvs San Diego Padres 4.5 7 +2.5

Anthony Kayvs New York Yankees 4.4 2 -2.4

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Mickey Gasper— · vs Braydon Fisher 65.0% No Hit

Sal Stewart— · vs Nolan McLean 65.0% Hit

Ildemaro Vargas— · vs Sam Aldegheri 65.0% No Hit

Everson Pereira— · vs Carlos Rodón 65.0% No Hit

Keibert Ruiz— · vs Luinder Avila 65.0% Hit

Masyn Winn— · vs Bradgley Rodriguez 65.0% Hit

Jonathan ArandaTampa Bay Rays · vs Shohei Ohtani 65.0% Hit

Mark Vientos— · vs Nick Lodolo 65.0% Hit

Yordan Alvarez— · vs Casey Mize 65.0% Hit

Ketel Marte— · vs Sam Aldegheri 65.0% Hit

Junior CamineroTampa Bay Rays · vs Shohei Ohtani 65.0% Hit

Salvador Perez— · vs Zack Littell 65.0% Hit

Colson Montgomery— · vs Carlos Rodón 65.0% Hit

Kerry Carpenter— · vs Peter Lambert 65.0% Hit

Bryce Harper— · vs Sandy Alcantara 65.0% Hit

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

Kerry Carpenter — 26.5% HR probability
Colson Montgomery — 25.5% HR probability
Zach Neto — 24.1% HR probability

Top Strikeout Calls

Nolan McLean — proj 6.0, recorded 9
Braxton Ashcraft — proj 5.5, recorded 7
Carlos Rodón — proj 5.2, recorded 7

Biggest Surprises

Kyle Bradish — proj 4.9, recorded 12
Javier Assad — proj 4.6, recorded 1

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Kerry Carpenter. Model HR probability 26.5% — result: Home Run.

Live on EdgeRanked

See today's slate the same way

This is a graded past slate. EdgeRanked publishes the same home run, strikeout, and hit probability analysis for today's games before first pitch.

3-day free trial. The full results archive stays free.

Start Free Trial