Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — June 17, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
16
Games covered
421
Hitters evaluated
32
Pitchers evaluated
June 17, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Rank | Player | Team | Matchup | HR Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Sandy Alcantara | 30.0% | No Home Run |
| #2 | Kyle Schwarber | — | vs Sandy Alcantara | 30.0% | No Home Run |
| #3 | Ketel Marte | — | vs Sam Aldegheri | 30.0% | No Home Run |
| #4 | Juan Soto | New York Mets | vs Nick Lodolo | 30.0% | No Home Run |
| #5 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | — | vs Kyle Leahy | 30.0% | No Home Run |
| #6 | Mike Trout | Los Angeles Angels | vs Eduardo Rodriguez | 30.0% | No Home Run |
| #7 | Christian Walker | — | vs Casey Mize | 30.0% | No Home Run |
| #8 | Yordan Alvarez | — | vs Casey Mize | 29.6% | No Home Run |
| #9 | Mark Vientos | — | vs Nick Lodolo | 27.8% | No Home Run |
| #10 | Kerry Carpenter | — | vs Peter Lambert | 26.5% | Home Run |
| #11 | Salvador Perez | — | vs Zack Littell | 26.2% | No Home Run |
| #12 | Junior Caminero | — | vs Shohei Ohtani | 25.8% | No Home Run |
| #13 | Colson Montgomery | Chicago White Sox | vs Carlos Rodón | 25.5% | Home Run |
| #14 | Bobby Witt Jr. | Kansas City Royals | vs Zack Littell | 25.4% | No Home Run |
| #15 | Brandon Lowe | — | vs Aaron Civale | 25.1% | No Home Run |
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nolan McLean | Cincinnati Reds | 6.0 | 9 | +3.0 | |
| Braxton Ashcraft | Athletics | 5.5 | 7 | +1.5 | |
| Carlos Rodón | Chicago White Sox | 5.2 | 7 | +1.8 | |
| Shohei Ohtani | Tampa Bay Rays | 5.1 | 5 | -0.1 | On Target |
| George Kirby | Baltimore Orioles | 5.1 | 5 | -0.1 | On Target |
| Gavin Williams | Milwaukee Brewers | 5.1 | 4 | -1.1 | |
| Casey Mize | Houston Astros | 5.0 | 3 | -2.0 | |
| Sandy Alcantara | Philadelphia Phillies | 4.9 | 6 | +1.1 | |
| Peter Lambert | Detroit Tigers | 4.9 | 5 | +0.1 | On Target |
| Kyle Bradish | Seattle Mariners | 4.9 | 12 | +7.1 | |
| Brandon Sproat | Cleveland Guardians | 4.8 | 6 | +1.2 | |
| Javier Assad | Colorado Rockies | 4.6 | 1 | -3.6 | |
| JR Ritchie | San Francisco Giants | 4.5 | 4 | -0.5 | On Target |
| Kyle Leahy | San Diego Padres | 4.5 | 7 | +2.5 | |
| Anthony Kay | New York Yankees | 4.4 | 2 | -2.4 |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Player | Team | Matchup | Hit Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sal Stewart | — | vs Nolan McLean | 65.0% | Hit |
| Mickey Gasper | — | vs Braydon Fisher | 65.0% | No Hit |
| Keibert Ruiz | — | vs Luinder Avila | 65.0% | Hit |
| Masyn Winn | — | vs Bradgley Rodriguez | 65.0% | Hit |
| Jonathan Aranda | — | vs Shohei Ohtani | 65.0% | Hit |
| Ketel Marte | — | vs Sam Aldegheri | 65.0% | Hit |
| Yordan Alvarez | — | vs Casey Mize | 65.0% | Hit |
| Mark Vientos | — | vs Nick Lodolo | 65.0% | Hit |
| Kerry Carpenter | — | vs Peter Lambert | 65.0% | Hit |
| Salvador Perez | — | vs Zack Littell | 65.0% | Hit |
| Junior Caminero | — | vs Shohei Ohtani | 65.0% | Hit |
| Colson Montgomery | Chicago White Sox | vs Carlos Rodón | 65.0% | Hit |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | Kansas City Royals | vs Zack Littell | 65.0% | Hit |
| Juan Soto | New York Mets | vs Nick Lodolo | 65.0% | Hit |
| Kyle Schwarber | — | vs Sandy Alcantara | 65.0% | No Hit |
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Home Run Calls
- Kerry Carpenter — 26.5% HR probability
- Colson Montgomery — 25.5% HR probability
- Zach Neto — 24.1% HR probability
Top Strikeout Calls
- Nolan McLean — proj 6.0, recorded 9
- Braxton Ashcraft — proj 5.5, recorded 7
- Carlos Rodón — proj 5.2, recorded 7
Biggest Surprises
- Kyle Bradish — proj 4.9, recorded 12
- Javier Assad — proj 4.6, recorded 1
Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Kerry Carpenter. Model HR probability 26.5% — result: Home Run.
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