MLB Results

MLB Model Results — June 9, 2026

Home run threat, strikeout, and hit probability results for this MLB slate.

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Slate Summary

MLB Model Results — June 9, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

15
Games covered
391
Hitters evaluated
30
Pitchers evaluated
June 9, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

RankPlayerTeamMatchupHR ProbabilityResult
#1Byron BuxtonMinnesota Twinsvs Troy Melton18.4%Home Run
#2Hunter GoodmanColorado Rockiesvs Colin Rea18.4%Home Run
#3Yordan Alvarez—vs Walbert Ureña18.0%No Home Run
#4Christian WalkerHouston Astrosvs Walbert Ureña17.8%No Home Run
#5Shohei OhtaniLos Angeles Dodgersvs Paul Skenes17.5%No Home Run
#6Juan SotoNew York Metsvs Dustin May17.5%No Home Run
#7Nick KurtzAthleticsvs Robert Gasser17.5%Home Run
#8Kyle SchwarberPhiladelphia Philliesvs Dylan Cease17.3%No Home Run
#9Tyler Soderstrom—vs Robert Gasser17.0%Home Run
#10Shea LangeliersAthleticsvs Robert Gasser17.0%No Home Run
#11Bryce HarperPhiladelphia Philliesvs Dylan Cease16.8%No Home Run
#12Brandon LowePittsburgh Piratesvs Eric Lauer16.4%No Home Run
#13Seiya SuzukiChicago Cubsvs Tomoyuki Sugano16.3%No Home Run
#14Pete AlonsoBaltimore Oriolesvs Logan Gilbert15.9%No Home Run
#15Ian HappChicago Cubsvs Tomoyuki Sugano15.6%No Home Run
Strikeouts

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

PitcherOpponentProjected KsActual KsDifference
Max MeyerArizona Diamondbacks7.65-2.6
Chase BurnsSan Diego Padres7.57-0.5On Target
Dylan CeasePhiladelphia Phillies6.911+4.1
Payton TolleTampa Bay Rays6.63-3.6
Gerrit ColeCleveland Guardians6.34-2.3
Nathan EovaldiKansas City Royals6.33-3.3
Zack WheelerToronto Blue Jays6.35-1.3
Andrew AlvarezSan Francisco Giants6.14-2.1
Dustin MayNew York Mets6.16-0.1On Target
Taj BradleyDetroit Tigers5.93-2.9
Walbert UreñaHouston Astros5.97+1.1
Paul SkenesLos Angeles Dodgers5.77+1.3
Logan GilbertBaltimore Orioles5.65-0.6On Target
Stephen KolekTexas Rangers5.43-2.4
Grant HolmesChicago White Sox5.42-3.4
Hit Probability

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

PlayerTeamMatchupHit ProbabilityResult
Byron BuxtonMinnesota Twinsvs Troy Melton65.0%Hit
Hunter GoodmanColorado Rockiesvs Colin Rea65.0%Hit
Christian WalkerHouston Astrosvs Walbert Ureña65.0%No Hit
Brandon LowePittsburgh Piratesvs Eric Lauer65.0%No Hit
Ian HappChicago Cubsvs Tomoyuki Sugano65.0%No Hit
Michael BuschChicago Cubsvs Tomoyuki Sugano65.0%Hit
Michael ConfortoChicago Cubsvs Tomoyuki Sugano65.0%No Hit
CJ AbramsWashington Nationalsvs Adrian Houser65.0%No Hit
Dansby SwansonChicago Cubsvs Tomoyuki Sugano65.0%Hit
Miguel AmayaChicago Cubsvs Tomoyuki Sugano65.0%No Hit
Ben Rice—vs Slade Cecconi65.0%No Hit
Christian Vázquez—vs Walbert Ureña65.0%No Hit
Yordan Alvarez—vs Walbert Ureña64.7%Hit
Julio Rodríguez—vs Trevor Rogers64.7%Hit
Fernando Tatis Jr.San Diego Padresvs Chase Burns64.0%Hit
Model Highlights

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

  • Byron Buxton — 18.4% HR probability
  • Hunter Goodman — 18.4% HR probability
  • Nick Kurtz — 17.5% HR probability

Top Strikeout Calls

  • Dylan Cease — proj 6.9, recorded 11
  • Walbert Ureña — proj 5.9, recorded 7
  • Paul Skenes — proj 5.7, recorded 7

Biggest Surprises

  • Dylan Cease — proj 6.9, recorded 11
  • Payton Tolle — proj 6.6, recorded 3
Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Byron Buxton. Model HR probability 18.4% — result: Home Run.
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