Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — June 9, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
15
Games covered
391
Hitters evaluated
30
Pitchers evaluated
June 9, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Rank | Player | Team | Matchup | HR Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Byron Buxton | Minnesota Twins | vs Troy Melton | 18.4% | Home Run |
| #2 | Hunter Goodman | Colorado Rockies | vs Colin Rea | 18.4% | Home Run |
| #3 | Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | vs Walbert Ureña | 18.0% | No Home Run |
| #4 | Christian Walker | — | vs Walbert Ureña | 17.8% | No Home Run |
| #5 | Shohei Ohtani | Los Angeles Dodgers | vs Paul Skenes | 17.5% | No Home Run |
| #6 | Juan Soto | New York Mets | vs Dustin May | 17.5% | No Home Run |
| #7 | Nick Kurtz | — | vs Robert Gasser | 17.5% | Home Run |
| #8 | Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Dylan Cease | 17.3% | No Home Run |
| #9 | Tyler Soderstrom | Athletics | vs Robert Gasser | 17.0% | Home Run |
| #10 | Shea Langeliers | Athletics | vs Robert Gasser | 17.0% | No Home Run |
| #11 | Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Dylan Cease | 16.8% | No Home Run |
| #12 | Brandon Lowe | Pittsburgh Pirates | vs Eric Lauer | 16.4% | No Home Run |
| #13 | Seiya Suzuki | Chicago Cubs | vs Tomoyuki Sugano | 16.3% | No Home Run |
| #14 | Pete Alonso | — | vs Logan Gilbert | 15.9% | No Home Run |
| #15 | Ian Happ | — | vs Tomoyuki Sugano | 15.6% | No Home Run |
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Meyer | Arizona Diamondbacks | 7.6 | 5 | -2.6 | |
| Chase Burns | San Diego Padres | 7.5 | 7 | -0.5 | On Target |
| Dylan Cease | Philadelphia Phillies | 6.9 | 11 | +4.1 | |
| Payton Tolle | Tampa Bay Rays | 6.6 | 3 | -3.6 | |
| Gerrit Cole | Cleveland Guardians | 6.3 | 4 | -2.3 | |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Kansas City Royals | 6.3 | 3 | -3.3 | |
| Zack Wheeler | Toronto Blue Jays | 6.3 | 5 | -1.3 | |
| Andrew Alvarez | San Francisco Giants | 6.1 | 4 | -2.1 | |
| Dustin May | New York Mets | 6.1 | 6 | -0.1 | On Target |
| Taj Bradley | Detroit Tigers | 5.9 | 3 | -2.9 | |
| Walbert Ureña | Houston Astros | 5.9 | 7 | +1.1 | |
| Paul Skenes | Los Angeles Dodgers | 5.7 | 7 | +1.3 | |
| Logan Gilbert | Baltimore Orioles | 5.6 | 5 | -0.6 | On Target |
| Stephen Kolek | Texas Rangers | 5.4 | 3 | -2.4 | |
| Grant Holmes | Chicago White Sox | 5.4 | 2 | -3.4 |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Player | Team | Matchup | Hit Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton | Minnesota Twins | vs Troy Melton | 65.0% | Hit |
| Hunter Goodman | Colorado Rockies | vs Colin Rea | 65.0% | Hit |
| Christian Walker | — | vs Walbert Ureña | 65.0% | No Hit |
| Brandon Lowe | Pittsburgh Pirates | vs Eric Lauer | 65.0% | No Hit |
| Ian Happ | — | vs Tomoyuki Sugano | 65.0% | No Hit |
| Michael Busch | — | vs Tomoyuki Sugano | 65.0% | Hit |
| Michael Conforto | — | vs Tomoyuki Sugano | 65.0% | No Hit |
| CJ Abrams | Washington Nationals | vs Adrian Houser | 65.0% | Hit |
| Dansby Swanson | — | vs Tomoyuki Sugano | 65.0% | Hit |
| Miguel Amaya | — | vs Tomoyuki Sugano | 65.0% | No Hit |
| Ben Rice | New York Yankees | vs Slade Cecconi | 65.0% | No Hit |
| Christian Vázquez | — | vs Walbert Ureña | 65.0% | No Hit |
| Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | vs Walbert Ureña | 64.7% | Hit |
| Julio Rodríguez | — | vs Trevor Rogers | 64.7% | Hit |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | San Diego Padres | vs Chase Burns | 64.0% | Hit |
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Home Run Calls
- Byron Buxton — 18.4% HR probability
- Hunter Goodman — 18.4% HR probability
- Nick Kurtz — 17.5% HR probability
Top Strikeout Calls
- Dylan Cease — proj 6.9, recorded 11
- Walbert Ureña — proj 5.9, recorded 7
- Paul Skenes — proj 5.7, recorded 7
Biggest Surprises
- Dylan Cease — proj 6.9, recorded 11
- Payton Tolle — proj 6.6, recorded 3
Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Byron Buxton. Model HR probability 18.4% — result: Home Run.
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