MLB Results

MLB Model Results — June 5, 2026

Home run threat, strikeout, and hit probability results for this MLB slate.

← June 4, 2026Back to Results ArchiveJune 6, 2026 →
Slate Summary

MLB Model Results — June 5, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

15
Games covered
390
Hitters evaluated
30
Pitchers evaluated
June 5, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

RankPlayerTeamMatchupHR ProbabilityResult
#1Hunter GoodmanColorado Rockiesvs Brandon Sproat18.4%Home Run
#2Juan SotoNew York Metsvs Michael King18.3%No Home Run
#3Byron BuxtonMinnesota Twinsvs Michael Wacha17.9%No Home Run
#4Shohei OhtaniLos Angeles Dodgersvs Unknown Pitcher17.9%No Home Run
#5Shea LangeliersAthleticsvs Peter Lambert17.7%No Home Run
#6Kyle SchwarberPhiladelphia Philliesvs Anthony Kay17.5%No Home Run
#7Colson MontgomeryChicago White Soxvs Jesús Luzardo16.7%No Home Run
#8Bryce HarperPhiladelphia Philliesvs Anthony Kay16.7%No Home Run
#9Rafael Devers—vs Edward Cabrera16.6%No Home Run
#10Christian WalkerHouston Astrosvs Jack Perkins16.5%No Home Run
#11Brent RookerAthleticsvs Peter Lambert16.4%Home Run
#12Nick KurtzAthleticsvs Peter Lambert16.4%No Home Run
#13Oneil Cruz—vs Martín Pérez16.3%No Home Run
#14Brandon LowePittsburgh Piratesvs Martín Pérez16.2%No Home Run
#15Max MuncyLos Angeles Dodgersvs Unknown Pitcher15.9%No Home Run
Strikeouts

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

PitcherOpponentProjected KsActual KsDifference
Jesús LuzardoChicago White Sox6.92-4.9
Ryan WeathersBoston Red Sox6.94-2.9
Bryan WooDetroit Tigers6.47+0.6On Target
Zebby MatthewsKansas City Royals6.32-4.3
Michael WachaMinnesota Twins6.32-4.3
Drew RasmussenMiami Marlins6.19+2.9
Roki SasakiLos Angeles Angels6.010+4.0
Christian ScottSan Diego Padres6.03-3.0
Foster GriffinArizona Diamondbacks5.94-1.9
Martín PérezPittsburgh Pirates5.85-0.8On Target
Peter LambertAthletics5.84-1.8
Michael KingNew York Mets5.64-1.6
Trey YesavageBaltimore Orioles5.55-0.5On Target
Parker MessickTexas Rangers5.54-1.5
Mitch KellerAtlanta Braves4.84-0.8On Target
Hit Probability

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

PlayerTeamMatchupHit ProbabilityResult
Hunter GoodmanColorado Rockiesvs Brandon Sproat65.0%Hit
Brandon LowePittsburgh Piratesvs Martín Pérez65.0%No Hit
Julio Rodríguez—vs Framber Valdez65.0%Hit
Andrew Vaughn—vs Ryan Feltner65.0%Hit
Brice Turang—vs Ryan Feltner65.0%Hit
Alec Burleson—vs Brady Singer65.0%Hit
Casey SchmittSan Francisco Giantsvs Edward Cabrera65.0%Hit
Derek Hill—vs Jesús Luzardo65.0%Hit
Brayan Rocchio—vs Kumar Rocker65.0%No Hit
Jordan Walker—vs Brady Singer64.7%Hit
Ian HappChicago Cubsvs Robbie Ray64.7%No Hit
CJ AbramsWashington Nationalsvs Merrill Kelly64.7%Hit
Christian WalkerHouston Astrosvs Jack Perkins64.3%Hit
Garrett Mitchell—vs Ryan Feltner64.3%Hit
Angel Martínez—vs Kumar Rocker64.3%No Hit
Model Highlights

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

  • Hunter Goodman — 18.4% HR probability
  • Brent Rooker — 16.4% HR probability
  • James Wood — 13.3% HR probability

Top Strikeout Calls

  • Bryan Woo — proj 6.4, recorded 7
  • Drew Rasmussen — proj 6.1, recorded 9
  • Roki Sasaki — proj 6.0, recorded 10

Biggest Surprises

  • Jesús Luzardo — proj 6.9, recorded 2
  • Jack Perkins — proj 1.4, recorded 6
Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Hunter Goodman. Model HR probability 18.4% — result: Home Run.
Explore More

Related MLB Pages

MLB ProjectionsMLB WeatherMLB IntelMLB Home