Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — June 4, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
9
Games covered
233
Hitters evaluated
18
Pitchers evaluated
June 4, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Rank | Player | Team | Matchup | HR Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | vs Jared Jones | 18.4% | No Home Run |
| #2 | Pete Alonso | — | vs Brayan Bello | 17.5% | No Home Run |
| #3 | Byron Buxton | Minnesota Twins | vs Seth Lugo | 17.5% | Home Run |
| #4 | Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Lucas Giolito | 17.5% | No Home Run |
| #5 | Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Lucas Giolito | 17.1% | No Home Run |
| #6 | Tyler Soderstrom | Athletics | vs Shota Imanaga | 16.7% | Home Run |
| #7 | Shea Langeliers | Athletics | vs Shota Imanaga | 16.6% | Home Run |
| #8 | Christian Walker | — | vs Jared Jones | 16.6% | No Home Run |
| #9 | Rafael Devers | San Francisco Giants | vs Coleman Crow | 16.4% | No Home Run |
| #10 | Brandon Lowe | Pittsburgh Pirates | vs Kai-Wei Teng | 16.4% | No Home Run |
| #11 | José Ramírez | Cleveland Guardians | vs Carlos Rodón | 16.0% | No Home Run |
| #12 | Max Muncy | — | vs Ryne Nelson | 15.9% | No Home Run |
| #13 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | San Diego Padres | vs Zack Wheeler | 15.3% | No Home Run |
| #14 | Nick Kurtz | — | vs Shota Imanaga | 15.2% | No Home Run |
| #15 | Gunnar Henderson | Baltimore Orioles | vs Brayan Bello | 14.8% | No Home Run |
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Sale | Toronto Blue Jays | 7.0 | 6 | -1.0 | |
| Shota Imanaga | Athletics | 6.8 | 5 | -1.8 | |
| Zack Wheeler | San Diego Padres | 6.5 | 8 | +1.5 | |
| Seth Lugo | Minnesota Twins | 6.2 | 4 | -2.2 | |
| Kai-Wei Teng | Pittsburgh Pirates | 5.9 | 1 | -4.9 | |
| J.T. Ginn | Chicago Cubs | 5.3 | 8 | +2.7 | |
| Ryne Nelson | Los Angeles Dodgers | 5.1 | 3 | -2.1 | |
| Jared Jones | Houston Astros | 5.0 | 4 | -1.0 | |
| Carlos Rodón | Cleveland Guardians | 4.9 | 7 | +2.1 | |
| Justin Wrobleski | Arizona Diamondbacks | 4.7 | 4 | -0.7 | On Target |
| Slade Cecconi | New York Yankees | 4.6 | 4 | -0.6 | On Target |
| Brayan Bello | Baltimore Orioles | 4.6 | 4 | -0.6 | On Target |
| Adrian Houser | Milwaukee Brewers | 3.8 | 5 | +1.2 | |
| Trevor Rogers | Boston Red Sox | 3.7 | 3 | -0.7 | On Target |
| Coleman Crow | San Francisco Giants | 2.9 | 2 | -0.9 | On Target |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Player | Team | Matchup | Hit Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Lowe | Pittsburgh Pirates | vs Kai-Wei Teng | 65.0% | Hit |
| Max Muncy | — | vs Ryne Nelson | 65.0% | Hit |
| Freddie Freeman | Los Angeles Dodgers | vs Ryne Nelson | 65.0% | No Hit |
| Bryce Eldridge | — | vs Coleman Crow | 65.0% | Hit |
| Ben Rice | New York Yankees | vs Slade Cecconi | 65.0% | No Hit |
| Casey Schmitt | — | vs Coleman Crow | 64.7% | Hit |
| Andrew Vaughn | — | vs Adrian Houser | 64.7% | No Hit |
| Garrett Mitchell | — | vs Adrian Houser | 64.3% | No Hit |
| David Fry | — | vs Carlos Rodón | 64.3% | No Hit |
| Taylor Ward | — | vs Brayan Bello | 64.0% | Hit |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | San Diego Padres | vs Zack Wheeler | 64.0% | No Hit |
| Andy Pages | — | vs Ryne Nelson | 63.7% | No Hit |
| Kyle Manzardo | — | vs Carlos Rodón | 63.7% | No Hit |
| Cody Bellinger | — | vs Slade Cecconi | 63.3% | Hit |
| Corbin Carroll | — | vs Justin Wrobleski | 63.0% | Hit |
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Home Run Calls
- Byron Buxton — 17.5% HR probability
- Tyler Soderstrom — 16.7% HR probability
- Shea Langeliers — 16.6% HR probability
Top Strikeout Calls
- Zack Wheeler — proj 6.5, recorded 8
- J.T. Ginn — proj 5.3, recorded 8
- Carlos Rodón — proj 4.9, recorded 7
Biggest Surprises
- Kai-Wei Teng — proj 5.9, recorded 1
- J.T. Ginn — proj 5.3, recorded 8
Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Byron Buxton. Model HR probability 17.5% — result: Home Run.
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