Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — June 3, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
15
Games covered
389
Hitters evaluated
30
Pitchers evaluated
June 3, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Rank | Player | Team | Matchup | HR Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Hunter Goodman | Colorado Rockies | vs Walbert Ureña | 18.0% | No Home Run |
| #2 | Byron Buxton | Minnesota Twins | vs Erick Fedde | 17.9% | No Home Run |
| #3 | Pete Alonso | — | vs Payton Tolle | 17.9% | No Home Run |
| #4 | Shohei Ohtani | Los Angeles Dodgers | vs Zac Gallen | 17.5% | No Home Run |
| #5 | Shea Langeliers | Athletics | vs Colin Rea | 17.5% | No Home Run |
| #6 | Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Walker Buehler | 17.1% | Home Run |
| #7 | Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Walker Buehler | 17.0% | No Home Run |
| #8 | Mike Trout | — | vs Michael Lorenzen | 16.8% | No Home Run |
| #9 | Brandon Lowe | Pittsburgh Pirates | vs Spencer Arrighetti | 16.7% | No Home Run |
| #10 | Juan Soto | New York Mets | vs George Kirby | 16.7% | No Home Run |
| #11 | Rafael Devers | San Francisco Giants | vs Unknown Pitcher | 16.4% | No Home Run |
| #12 | Brent Rooker | — | vs Colin Rea | 16.4% | No Home Run |
| #13 | Christian Walker | — | vs Paul Skenes | 16.3% | No Home Run |
| #14 | Junior Caminero | Tampa Bay Rays | vs Troy Melton | 16.0% | No Home Run |
| #15 | Oneil Cruz | — | vs Spencer Arrighetti | 16.0% | No Home Run |
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani | Arizona Diamondbacks | 7.8 | 6 | -1.8 | |
| Cristopher Sánchez | San Diego Padres | 7.5 | 8 | +0.5 | On Target |
| Chase Burns | Kansas City Royals | 7.2 | 9 | +1.8 | |
| Taj Bradley | Chicago White Sox | 7.1 | 5 | -2.1 | |
| Gavin Williams | New York Yankees | 7.1 | 6 | -1.1 | |
| Gerrit Cole | Cleveland Guardians | 6.4 | 2 | -4.4 | |
| Max Meyer | Washington Nationals | 6.3 | 7 | +0.7 | On Target |
| Spencer Arrighetti | Pittsburgh Pirates | 5.8 | 3 | -2.8 | |
| Paul Skenes | Houston Astros | 5.7 | 7 | +1.3 | |
| Freddy Peralta | Seattle Mariners | 5.6 | 6 | +0.4 | On Target |
| George Kirby | New York Mets | 5.6 | 5 | -0.6 | On Target |
| Payton Tolle | Baltimore Orioles | 5.5 | 5 | -0.5 | On Target |
| Logan Webb | Milwaukee Brewers | 5.5 | 4 | -1.5 | |
| Colin Rea | Athletics | 5.4 | 3 | -2.4 | |
| Walbert Ureña | Colorado Rockies | 5.4 | 7 | +1.6 |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Player | Team | Matchup | Hit Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Trout | — | vs Michael Lorenzen | 65.0% | No Hit |
| Brandon Lowe | Pittsburgh Pirates | vs Spencer Arrighetti | 65.0% | No Hit |
| Hunter Goodman | Colorado Rockies | vs Walbert Ureña | 65.0% | Hit |
| Junior Caminero | Tampa Bay Rays | vs Troy Melton | 65.0% | Hit |
| Andy Pages | — | vs Zac Gallen | 65.0% | Hit |
| Juan Soto | New York Mets | vs George Kirby | 65.0% | Hit |
| Bryan Reynolds | Pittsburgh Pirates | vs Spencer Arrighetti | 65.0% | Hit |
| Josh Jung | — | vs Andre Pallante | 65.0% | Hit |
| Ben Rice | New York Yankees | vs Gavin Williams | 65.0% | Hit |
| Freddie Freeman | Los Angeles Dodgers | vs Zac Gallen | 64.7% | Hit |
| Logan O'Hoppe | — | vs Michael Lorenzen | 64.3% | Hit |
| Byron Buxton | Minnesota Twins | vs Erick Fedde | 64.0% | No Hit |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | San Diego Padres | vs Cristopher Sánchez | 64.0% | Hit |
| Max Muncy | — | vs Zac Gallen | 64.0% | Hit |
| Matt Olson | — | vs Patrick Corbin | 64.0% | Hit |
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Home Run Calls
- Kyle Schwarber — 17.1% HR probability
- José Ramírez — 13.0% HR probability
- Kyle Tucker — 7.3% HR probability
Top Strikeout Calls
- Cristopher Sánchez — proj 7.5, recorded 8
- Chase Burns — proj 7.2, recorded 9
- Max Meyer — proj 6.3, recorded 7
Biggest Surprises
- Gerrit Cole — proj 6.4, recorded 2
- Nick Martinez — proj 4.9, recorded 1
Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Kyle Schwarber. Model HR probability 17.1% — result: Home Run.
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