MLB Results — September 16, 2026

MLB Model Results — September 16, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

#1 Heriberto Hernández— · vs Merrill Kelly 31.0% No Home Run

#2 Coby Mayo— · vs Robert Stock 30.8% No Home Run

#3 Jac Caglianone— · vs Cristian Javier 28.0% No Home Run

#4 Kazuma Okamoto— · vs Keider Montero 27.3% No Home Run

#5 Jo Adell— · vs Anthony Kay 27.2% No Home Run

#6 Austin Riley— · vs Shota Imanaga 25.5% No Home Run

#7 Ronald Acuña Jr.— · vs Shota Imanaga 25.4% No Home Run

#8 Zach Neto— · vs George Kirby 25.3% No Home Run

#9 Coby Mayo— · vs Xzavion Curry 25.2% No Home Run

#10 Royce Lewis— · vs Carlos Rodón 25.2% No Home Run

#11 Kyle Stowers— · vs Merrill Kelly 25.0% No Home Run

#12 Salvador Perez— · vs Cristian Javier 25.0% No Home Run

#13 Francisco Lindor— · vs Chris Bassitt 24.9% No Home Run

#14 Max Muncy— · vs Andrew Abbott 24.2% No Home Run

#15 Michael Harris II— · vs Shota Imanaga 24.2% No Home Run

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Blake Snellvs Cincinnati Reds 7.7 1 -6.7

Logan Hendersonvs Pittsburgh Pirates 7.6 8 +0.4On target

Zack Wheelervs Washington Nationals 7.3 5 -2.3

Parker Messickvs Chicago White Sox 6.7 8 +1.3

Jared Jonesvs Milwaukee Brewers 6.3 9 +2.7

George Kirbyvs Los Angeles Angels 5.8 5 -0.8On target

Mason Adamsvs San Diego Padres 5.8 1 -4.8

Shota Imanagavs Atlanta Braves 5.8 8 +2.2

Jake Bennettvs Texas Rangers 5.4 7 +1.6

Cristian Javiervs Kansas City Royals 5.3 2 -3.3

Yusei Kikuchivs Seattle Mariners 5.3 4 -1.3

JR Ritchievs Chicago Cubs 5.1 5 -0.1On target

Carlos Rodónvs Minnesota Twins 5.1 5 -0.1On target

MacKenzie Gorevs Boston Red Sox 4.9 0 -4.9

Matthew Liberatorevs San Francisco Giants 4.5 2 -2.5

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Fernando Tatis Jr.— · vs Mason Adams 64.5% No Hit

Yordan Alvarez— · vs Daniel Lynch IV 64.1% Hit

Kyle Stowers— · vs Merrill Kelly 62.9% Hit

Juan Soto— · vs Chris Bassitt 62.3% No Hit

Randy Arozarena— · vs Yusei Kikuchi 62.0% Hit

Bryce Harper— · vs Jared Simpson 61.8% Hit

Brett Baty— · vs Chris Bassitt 61.8% Hit

Seiya Suzuki— · vs JR Ritchie 61.2% No Hit

Aaron Judge— · vs Zebby Matthews 61.2% No Hit

Jake McCarthy— · vs Robbie Ray 60.8% No Hit

Elly De La Cruz— · vs Blake Snell 60.7% Hit

Kyle Schwarber— · vs Jared Simpson 60.6% No Hit

Teoscar Hernández— · vs Andrew Abbott 60.5% No Hit

Yandy DíazTampa Bay Rays · vs Brady Basso 60.5% No Hit

Gunnar Henderson— · vs Xzavion Curry 60.3% No Hit

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

Elly De La Cruz — 24.1% HR probability
Brandon Lowe — 23.9% HR probability
Pete Crow-Armstrong — 23.9% HR probability

Top Strikeout Calls

Logan Henderson — proj 7.6, recorded 8
Parker Messick — proj 6.7, recorded 8
Jared Jones — proj 6.3, recorded 9

Biggest Surprises

Blake Snell — proj 7.7, recorded 1
Merrill Kelly — proj 3.6, recorded 9

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Elly De La Cruz. Model HR probability 24.1% — result: Home Run.

Live on EdgeRanked

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