MLB Model Results — September 16, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
No graded home run projections are available for this slate.
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Snell | Cincinnati Reds | 7.7 | 1 | -6.7 | |
| Logan Henderson | Pittsburgh Pirates | 7.6 | 8 | +0.4 | On Target |
| Zack Wheeler | Washington Nationals | 7.3 | 5 | -2.3 | |
| Parker Messick | Chicago White Sox | 6.7 | 8 | +1.3 | |
| Jared Jones | Milwaukee Brewers | 6.3 | 9 | +2.7 | |
| George Kirby | Los Angeles Angels | 5.8 | 5 | -0.8 | On Target |
| Mason Adams | San Diego Padres | 5.8 | 1 | -4.8 | |
| Shota Imanaga | Atlanta Braves | 5.8 | 8 | +2.2 | |
| Jake Bennett | Texas Rangers | 5.4 | 7 | +1.6 | |
| Cristian Javier | Kansas City Royals | 5.3 | 2 | -3.3 | |
| Yusei Kikuchi | Seattle Mariners | 5.3 | 4 | -1.3 | |
| JR Ritchie | Chicago Cubs | 5.1 | 5 | -0.1 | On Target |
| Carlos Rodón | Minnesota Twins | 5.1 | 5 | -0.1 | On Target |
| MacKenzie Gore | Boston Red Sox | 4.9 | 0 | -4.9 | |
| Matthew Liberatore | San Francisco Giants | 4.5 | 2 | -2.5 |
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
No graded hit projections are available for this slate.
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Strikeout Calls
- Logan Henderson — proj 7.6, recorded 8
- Parker Messick — proj 6.7, recorded 8
- Jared Jones — proj 6.3, recorded 9
Biggest Surprises
- Blake Snell — proj 7.7, recorded 1
- Merrill Kelly — proj 3.6, recorded 9
See today's slate the same way
This is a graded past slate. EdgeRanked publishes the same home run, strikeout, and hit probability analysis for today's games before first pitch.
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