Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — August 5, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
15
Games covered
409
Hitters evaluated
30
Pitchers evaluated
August 5, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Rank | Player | Team | Matchup | HR Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Coby Mayo | Baltimore Orioles | vs Reid Detmers | 31.2% | Home Run |
| #2 | Hunter Goodman | — | vs Nick Martinez | 31.1% | No Home Run |
| #3 | Brandon Lowe | — | vs Kyle Harrison | 30.6% | No Home Run |
| #4 | Jahmai Jones | — | vs Sean Burke | 30.4% | No Home Run |
| #5 | Royce Lewis | Minnesota Twins | vs Noah Cameron | 27.3% | No Home Run |
| #6 | Kazuma Okamoto | Toronto Blue Jays | vs Hunter Brown | 27.0% | No Home Run |
| #7 | Shohei Ohtani | — | vs Shota Imanaga | 26.2% | Home Run |
| #8 | Tyler O'Neill | — | vs Reid Detmers | 25.9% | Home Run |
| #9 | Mickey Moniak | — | vs Nick Martinez | 25.3% | No Home Run |
| #10 | Jo Adell | — | vs Trevor Rogers | 25.2% | No Home Run |
| #11 | Zach Neto | — | vs Trevor Rogers | 25.0% | No Home Run |
| #12 | Kyle Schwarber | — | vs Jake Irvin | 24.4% | No Home Run |
| #13 | Joc Pederson | — | vs Carson Whisenhunt | 24.3% | No Home Run |
| #14 | Jo Adell | — | vs Christian Scott | 24.0% | No Home Run |
| #15 | Francisco Lindor | — | vs Tanner Bibee | 23.9% | No Home Run |
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Skenes | Milwaukee Brewers | 6.9 | 6 | -0.9 | On Target |
| Eury Pérez | Atlanta Braves | 5.8 | 9 | +3.2 | |
| Kyle Harrison | Pittsburgh Pirates | 5.7 | 10 | +4.3 | |
| Reid Detmers | Baltimore Orioles | 5.6 | 5 | -0.6 | On Target |
| Cody Bradford | San Francisco Giants | 5.5 | 5 | -0.5 | On Target |
| Christian Scott | Cleveland Guardians | 5.5 | 7 | +1.5 | |
| Sean Burke | Boston Red Sox | 5.5 | 4 | -1.5 | |
| Dean Kremer | Kansas City Royals | 5.4 | 2 | -3.4 | |
| Casey Mize | Arizona Diamondbacks | 5.2 | 1 | -4.2 | |
| Bryan Woo | Detroit Tigers | 5.1 | 5 | -0.1 | On Target |
| Hunter Brown | Toronto Blue Jays | 5.1 | 8 | +2.9 | |
| Will Warren | St. Louis Cardinals | 5.1 | 5 | -0.1 | On Target |
| Shota Imanaga | Los Angeles Dodgers | 5.1 | 6 | +0.9 | On Target |
| Noah Cameron | Minnesota Twins | 5.1 | 9 | +3.9 | |
| Sonny Gray | Chicago White Sox | 5.0 | 8 | +3.0 |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Player | Team | Matchup | Hit Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani | — | vs Shota Imanaga | 63.6% | Hit |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | — | vs Mitch Bratt | 62.9% | Hit |
| Yordan Alvarez | — | vs Jameson Taillon | 62.3% | Hit |
| Liam Hicks | — | vs Tomoyuki Sugano | 61.9% | No Hit |
| Junior Caminero | — | vs Tomoyuki Sugano | 61.7% | Hit |
| Seiya Suzuki | — | vs Eric Lauer | 61.7% | Hit |
| Elly De La Cruz | — | vs Jacob Lopez | 61.7% | Hit |
| Bryce Harper | — | vs Jake Irvin | 61.2% | No Hit |
| Tyler Soderstrom | — | vs Rhett Lowder | 61.2% | Hit |
| Kyle Stowers | — | vs Bryce Elder | 61.2% | No Hit |
| CJ Abrams | Washington Nationals | vs Andrew Painter | 60.8% | Hit |
| Cole Carrigg | — | vs Nick Martinez | 60.8% | No Hit |
| Luis García Jr. | — | vs Andre Pallante | 60.5% | No Hit |
| Brett Baty | — | vs Tanner Bibee | 60.5% | Hit |
| Mickey Moniak | — | vs Nick Martinez | 60.1% | Hit |
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Home Run Calls
- Coby Mayo — 31.2% HR probability
- Shohei Ohtani — 26.2% HR probability
- Tyler O'Neill — 25.9% HR probability
Top Strikeout Calls
- Eury Pérez — proj 5.8, recorded 9
- Kyle Harrison — proj 5.7, recorded 10
- Christian Scott — proj 5.5, recorded 7
Biggest Surprises
- Tanner Bibee — proj 4.4, recorded 10
- Mitch Bratt — proj 3.6, recorded 9
Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Coby Mayo. Model HR probability 31.2% — result: Home Run.
Live on EdgeRanked
See today's slate the same way
This is a graded past slate. EdgeRanked publishes the same home run, strikeout, and hit probability analysis for today's games before first pitch.
3-day free trial. The full results archive stays free.
Explore More