MLB Results — August 3, 2026

MLB Model Results — August 3, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

#1 Hunter Goodman— · vs Ian Seymour 31.2% No Home Run

#2 Willy Adames— · vs Cal Quantrill 29.8% No Home Run

#3 Yordan Alvarez— · vs Shane Bieber 28.4% No Home Run

#4 Kazuma Okamoto— · vs Cristian Javier 28.4% No Home Run

#5 Brandon Lowe— · vs Brandon Sproat 26.9% No Home Run

#6 Kyle Schwarber— · vs Unknown Pitcher 24.4% No Home Run

#7 Joc Pederson— · vs Logan Webb 24.1% No Home Run

#8 Mickey Moniak— · vs Ian Seymour 23.9% Home Run

#9 Corbin Carroll— · vs Michael King 23.8% No Home Run

#10 Pete Crow-Armstrong— · vs Justin Wrobleski 22.6% No Home Run

#11 Willy Adames— · vs Unknown Pitcher 22.2% No Home Run

#12 Luis García Jr.— · vs Aaron Nola 19.4% Home Run

#13 Kyle Schwarber— · vs Andrew Alvarez 18.9% No Home Run

#14 José Tena— · vs Aaron Nola 18.9% No Home Run

#15 James Wood— · vs Aaron Nola 18.8% No Home Run

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Cam Schlittlervs St. Louis Cardinals 5.6 6 +0.4On target

Brandon Sproatvs Pittsburgh Pirates 5.1 4 -1.1

Justin Wrobleskivs Chicago Cubs 5.1 4 -1.1

Aaron Nolavs Washington Nationals 5.1 5 -0.1On target

Andrew Alvarezvs Philadelphia Phillies 5.0 5 -0.0On target

Matthew Boydvs Los Angeles Dodgers 4.7 3 -1.7

Michael Kingvs Arizona Diamondbacks 4.6 5 +0.4On target

Logan Webbvs Texas Rangers 4.5 8 +3.5

Bubba Chandlervs Milwaukee Brewers 4.3 5 +0.7On target

Cal Quantrillvs San Francisco Giants 4.2 4 -0.2On target

Brandon Pfaadtvs San Diego Padres 4.1 3 -1.1

Michael McGreevyvs New York Yankees 4.0 5 +1.0On target

Shane Biebervs Houston Astros 4.0 6 +2.0

Michael Lorenzenvs Tampa Bay Rays 3.9 0 -3.9

Ian Seymourvs Colorado Rockies 3.2 9 +5.8

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Yordan Alvarez— · vs Shane Bieber 62.3% Hit

Shohei Ohtani— · vs Matthew Boyd 61.6% Hit

Rafael Devers— · vs Cal Quantrill 61.5% No Hit

Fernando Tatis Jr.— · vs Brandon Pfaadt 61.5% No Hit

Yandy DíazTampa Bay Rays · vs Michael Lorenzen 61.2% No Hit

Seiya Suzuki— · vs Justin Wrobleski 60.9% Hit

Ben Rice— · vs Michael McGreevy 60.8% No Hit

Jeremy Peña— · vs Shane Bieber 60.7% Hit

Jake BauersMilwaukee Brewers · vs Bubba Chandler 60.5% Hit

Brandon Lowe— · vs Brandon Sproat 60.4% Hit

Bryan Reynolds— · vs Brandon Sproat 60.1% Hit

Junior CamineroTampa Bay Rays · vs Michael Lorenzen 60.1% Hit

Bryce Harper— · vs Andrew Alvarez 60.0% Hit

Andy Pages— · vs Matthew Boyd 59.7% Hit

Brandon Nimmo— · vs Logan Webb 59.7% No Hit

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

Mickey Moniak — 23.9% HR probability
Luis García Jr. — 19.4% HR probability
Junior Caminero — 18.8% HR probability

Top Strikeout Calls

Cam Schlittler — proj 5.6, recorded 6
Michael King — proj 4.6, recorded 5
Logan Webb — proj 4.5, recorded 8

Biggest Surprises

Ian Seymour — proj 3.2, recorded 9
Michael Lorenzen — proj 3.9, recorded 0

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Mickey Moniak. Model HR probability 23.9% — result: Home Run.

Live on EdgeRanked

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