Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — August 3, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
9
Games covered
250
Hitters evaluated
17
Pitchers evaluated
August 3, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Rank | Player | Team | Matchup | HR Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Hunter Goodman | — | vs Ian Seymour | 31.2% | No Home Run |
| #2 | Willy Adames | — | vs Cal Quantrill | 29.8% | No Home Run |
| #3 | Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | vs Shane Bieber | 28.4% | No Home Run |
| #4 | Kazuma Okamoto | — | vs Cristian Javier | 28.4% | No Home Run |
| #5 | Brandon Lowe | Pittsburgh Pirates | vs Brandon Sproat | 26.9% | No Home Run |
| #6 | Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Unknown Pitcher | 24.4% | No Home Run |
| #7 | Joc Pederson | — | vs Logan Webb | 24.1% | No Home Run |
| #8 | Mickey Moniak | Colorado Rockies | vs Ian Seymour | 23.9% | Home Run |
| #9 | Corbin Carroll | — | vs Michael King | 23.8% | No Home Run |
| #10 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | — | vs Justin Wrobleski | 22.6% | No Home Run |
| #11 | Willy Adames | — | vs Unknown Pitcher | 22.2% | No Home Run |
| #12 | Luis García Jr. | — | vs Aaron Nola | 19.4% | Home Run |
| #13 | Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Andrew Alvarez | 18.9% | No Home Run |
| #14 | José Tena | — | vs Aaron Nola | 18.9% | No Home Run |
| #15 | James Wood | — | vs Aaron Nola | 18.8% | No Home Run |
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Schlittler | St. Louis Cardinals | 5.6 | 6 | +0.4 | On Target |
| Brandon Sproat | Pittsburgh Pirates | 5.1 | 4 | -1.1 | |
| Justin Wrobleski | Chicago Cubs | 5.1 | 4 | -1.1 | |
| Aaron Nola | Washington Nationals | 5.1 | 5 | -0.1 | On Target |
| Andrew Alvarez | Philadelphia Phillies | 5.0 | 5 | -0.0 | On Target |
| Matthew Boyd | Los Angeles Dodgers | 4.7 | 3 | -1.7 | |
| Michael King | Arizona Diamondbacks | 4.6 | 5 | +0.4 | On Target |
| Logan Webb | Texas Rangers | 4.5 | 8 | +3.5 | |
| Bubba Chandler | Milwaukee Brewers | 4.3 | 5 | +0.7 | On Target |
| Cal Quantrill | San Francisco Giants | 4.2 | 4 | -0.2 | On Target |
| Brandon Pfaadt | San Diego Padres | 4.1 | 3 | -1.1 | |
| Michael McGreevy | New York Yankees | 4.0 | 5 | +1.0 | On Target |
| Shane Bieber | Houston Astros | 4.0 | 6 | +2.0 | |
| Michael Lorenzen | Tampa Bay Rays | 3.9 | 0 | -3.9 | |
| Ian Seymour | Colorado Rockies | 3.2 | 9 | +5.8 |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Player | Team | Matchup | Hit Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | vs Shane Bieber | 62.3% | Hit |
| Shohei Ohtani | — | vs Matthew Boyd | 61.6% | Hit |
| Rafael Devers | — | vs Cal Quantrill | 61.5% | No Hit |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | San Diego Padres | vs Brandon Pfaadt | 61.5% | No Hit |
| Yandy Díaz | Tampa Bay Rays | vs Michael Lorenzen | 61.2% | No Hit |
| Seiya Suzuki | — | vs Justin Wrobleski | 60.9% | Hit |
| Ben Rice | — | vs Michael McGreevy | 60.8% | No Hit |
| Jeremy Peña | Houston Astros | vs Shane Bieber | 60.7% | Hit |
| Jake Bauers | — | vs Bubba Chandler | 60.5% | Hit |
| Brandon Lowe | Pittsburgh Pirates | vs Brandon Sproat | 60.4% | Hit |
| Bryan Reynolds | Pittsburgh Pirates | vs Brandon Sproat | 60.1% | Hit |
| Junior Caminero | Tampa Bay Rays | vs Michael Lorenzen | 60.1% | Hit |
| Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Andrew Alvarez | 60.0% | Hit |
| Andy Pages | — | vs Matthew Boyd | 59.7% | Hit |
| Brandon Nimmo | Texas Rangers | vs Logan Webb | 59.7% | No Hit |
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Home Run Calls
- Mickey Moniak — 23.9% HR probability
- Luis García Jr. — 19.4% HR probability
- Junior Caminero — 18.8% HR probability
Top Strikeout Calls
- Cam Schlittler — proj 5.6, recorded 6
- Michael King — proj 4.6, recorded 5
- Logan Webb — proj 4.5, recorded 8
Biggest Surprises
- Ian Seymour — proj 3.2, recorded 9
- Michael Lorenzen — proj 3.9, recorded 0
Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Mickey Moniak. Model HR probability 23.9% — result: Home Run.
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