MLB Results — August 2, 2026

MLB Model Results — August 2, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

#1 Salvador Perez— · vs Kyle Freeland 31.3% No Home Run

#2 Jac Caglianone— · vs Kyle Freeland 31.2% No Home Run

#3 Brandon Lowe— · vs Chase Burns 31.1% No Home Run

#4 Kazuma Okamoto— · vs Matthew Liberatore 28.9% No Home Run

#5 Kyle Manzardo— · vs Merrill Kelly 26.5% No Home Run

#6 Carter Jensen— · vs Kyle Freeland 25.3% No Home Run

#7 Mickey Moniak— · vs Seth Lugo 25.2% No Home Run

#8 Zach Neto— · vs Jacob Misiorowski 25.0% No Home Run

#9 Colson Montgomery— · vs Griffin Jax 24.2% No Home Run

#10 Shohei Ohtani— · vs Jake Bennett 24.2% No Home Run

#11 Joc Pederson— · vs Peter Lambert 24.2% No Home Run

#12 Yordan Alvarez— · vs Kumar Rocker 24.1% No Home Run

#13 Owen Caissie— · vs Robert Stock 24.1% No Home Run

#14 Kyle Schwarber— · vs Kyle Bradish 24.1% No Home Run

#15 Michael Harris II— · vs Cade Cavalli 23.9% No Home Run

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Jacob Misiorowskivs Los Angeles Angels 8.7 10 +1.3

Kyle Bradishvs Philadelphia Phillies 7.0 3 -4.0

Zack Wheelervs Baltimore Orioles 6.9 3 -3.9

Chase Burnsvs Pittsburgh Pirates 6.1 9 +2.9

Gerrit Colevs Chicago Cubs 5.8 5 -0.8On target

Griffin Jaxvs Chicago White Sox 5.6 8 +2.4

Cade Cavallivs Atlanta Braves 5.6 3 -2.6

Gage Jumpvs Detroit Tigers 5.6 5 -0.6On target

Gavin Williamsvs Arizona Diamondbacks 5.5 10 +4.5

Emmet Sheehanvs Boston Red Sox 5.5 4 -1.5

Taj Bradleyvs Seattle Mariners 5.4 2 -3.4

George Kirbyvs Minnesota Twins 5.2 3 -2.2

Kumar Rockervs Houston Astros 5.1 5 -0.1On target

Peter Lambertvs Texas Rangers 5.1 8 +2.9

Landen Rouppvs San Diego Padres 4.8 6 +1.2

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Yordan Alvarez— · vs Kumar Rocker 63.9% Hit

Shohei Ohtani— · vs Jake Bennett 63.6% Hit

Bryce Harper— · vs Kyle Bradish 62.5% Hit

CJ Abrams— · vs JR Ritchie 62.3% No Hit

Tyler Soderstrom— · vs Keider Montero 62.2% Hit

Rafael Devers— · vs Michael King 62.2% Hit

Elly De La Cruz— · vs Mitch Keller 62.2% Hit

Kyle Stowers— · vs Robert Stock 62.2% No Hit

Yandy DíazTampa Bay Rays · vs Anthony Kay 61.9% No Hit

Edouard Julien— · vs Seth Lugo 61.8% No Hit

Rafael Devers— · vs Kyle Hart 61.4% Hit

Ben Rice— · vs Colin Rea 61.3% No Hit

Kyle Schwarber— · vs Kyle Bradish 61.2% No Hit

Mickey Moniak— · vs Seth Lugo 61.0% No Hit

Jake BauersMilwaukee Brewers · vs Walbert Ureña 61.0% Hit

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

Royce Lewis — 23.9% HR probability
Matt Olson — 23.9% HR probability
Andrew Benintendi — 23.9% HR probability

Top Strikeout Calls

Jacob Misiorowski — proj 8.7, recorded 10
Chase Burns — proj 6.1, recorded 9
Griffin Jax — proj 5.6, recorded 8

Biggest Surprises

Gavin Williams — proj 5.5, recorded 10
Kyle Bradish — proj 7.0, recorded 3

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Royce Lewis. Model HR probability 23.9% — result: Home Run.

Live on EdgeRanked

See today's slate the same way

This is a graded past slate. EdgeRanked publishes the same home run, strikeout, and hit probability analysis for today's games before first pitch.

3-day free trial. The full results archive stays free.

Start Free Trial