Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — August 2, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
16
Games covered
417
Hitters evaluated
32
Pitchers evaluated
August 2, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Rank | Player | Team | Matchup | HR Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Salvador Perez | — | vs Kyle Freeland | 31.3% | No Home Run |
| #2 | Jac Caglianone | — | vs Kyle Freeland | 31.2% | No Home Run |
| #3 | Brandon Lowe | — | vs Chase Burns | 31.1% | No Home Run |
| #4 | Kazuma Okamoto | Toronto Blue Jays | vs Matthew Liberatore | 28.9% | No Home Run |
| #5 | Kyle Manzardo | — | vs Merrill Kelly | 26.5% | No Home Run |
| #6 | Carter Jensen | — | vs Kyle Freeland | 25.3% | No Home Run |
| #7 | Mickey Moniak | — | vs Seth Lugo | 25.2% | No Home Run |
| #8 | Zach Neto | Los Angeles Angels | vs Jacob Misiorowski | 25.0% | No Home Run |
| #9 | Colson Montgomery | — | vs Griffin Jax | 24.2% | No Home Run |
| #10 | Shohei Ohtani | — | vs Jake Bennett | 24.2% | No Home Run |
| #11 | Joc Pederson | — | vs Peter Lambert | 24.2% | No Home Run |
| #12 | Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | vs Kumar Rocker | 24.1% | No Home Run |
| #13 | Owen Caissie | — | vs Robert Stock | 24.1% | No Home Run |
| #14 | Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Kyle Bradish | 24.1% | No Home Run |
| #15 | Michael Harris II | — | vs Cade Cavalli | 23.9% | No Home Run |
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Misiorowski | Los Angeles Angels | 8.7 | 10 | +1.3 | |
| Kyle Bradish | Philadelphia Phillies | 7.0 | 3 | -4.0 | |
| Zack Wheeler | Baltimore Orioles | 6.9 | 3 | -3.9 | |
| Chase Burns | Pittsburgh Pirates | 6.1 | 9 | +2.9 | |
| Gerrit Cole | Chicago Cubs | 5.8 | 5 | -0.8 | On Target |
| Griffin Jax | Chicago White Sox | 5.6 | 8 | +2.4 | |
| Cade Cavalli | Atlanta Braves | 5.6 | 3 | -2.6 | |
| Gage Jump | Detroit Tigers | 5.6 | 5 | -0.6 | On Target |
| Gavin Williams | Arizona Diamondbacks | 5.5 | 10 | +4.5 | |
| Emmet Sheehan | Boston Red Sox | 5.5 | 4 | -1.5 | |
| Taj Bradley | Seattle Mariners | 5.4 | 2 | -3.4 | |
| George Kirby | Minnesota Twins | 5.2 | 3 | -2.2 | |
| Kumar Rocker | Houston Astros | 5.1 | 5 | -0.1 | On Target |
| Peter Lambert | Texas Rangers | 5.1 | 8 | +2.9 | |
| Landen Roupp | San Diego Padres | 4.8 | 6 | +1.2 |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Player | Team | Matchup | Hit Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | vs Kumar Rocker | 63.9% | Hit |
| Shohei Ohtani | — | vs Jake Bennett | 63.6% | Hit |
| Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Kyle Bradish | 62.5% | Hit |
| CJ Abrams | Washington Nationals | vs JR Ritchie | 62.3% | No Hit |
| Tyler Soderstrom | — | vs Keider Montero | 62.2% | Hit |
| Rafael Devers | — | vs Michael King | 62.2% | Hit |
| Elly De La Cruz | Cincinnati Reds | vs Mitch Keller | 62.2% | Hit |
| Kyle Stowers | Miami Marlins | vs Robert Stock | 62.2% | No Hit |
| Yandy Díaz | Tampa Bay Rays | vs Anthony Kay | 61.9% | No Hit |
| Edouard Julien | — | vs Seth Lugo | 61.8% | No Hit |
| Rafael Devers | — | vs Kyle Hart | 61.4% | Hit |
| Ben Rice | New York Yankees | vs Colin Rea | 61.3% | No Hit |
| Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Kyle Bradish | 61.2% | No Hit |
| Mickey Moniak | — | vs Seth Lugo | 61.0% | No Hit |
| Jake Bauers | — | vs Walbert Ureña | 61.0% | Hit |
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Home Run Calls
- Royce Lewis — 23.9% HR probability
- Matt Olson — 23.9% HR probability
- Andrew Benintendi — 23.9% HR probability
Top Strikeout Calls
- Jacob Misiorowski — proj 8.7, recorded 10
- Chase Burns — proj 6.1, recorded 9
- Griffin Jax — proj 5.6, recorded 8
Biggest Surprises
- Gavin Williams — proj 5.5, recorded 10
- Kyle Bradish — proj 7.0, recorded 3
Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Royce Lewis. Model HR probability 23.9% — result: Home Run.
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