MLB Results — August 4, 2026

MLB Model Results — August 4, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

#1 Hunter Goodman— · vs Freddy Peralta 31.1% No Home Run

#2 Jac Caglianone— · vs Joe Ryan 31.0% No Home Run

#3 Coby Mayo— · vs Grayson Rodriguez 31.0% No Home Run

#4 Salvador Perez— · vs Joe Ryan 30.8% No Home Run

#5 Kazuma Okamoto— · vs Hayden Wesneski 28.0% No Home Run

#6 Kyle Schwarber— · vs Zack Littell 27.9% No Home Run

#7 Yordan Alvarez— · vs Trey Yesavage 27.4% No Home Run

#8 Owen Caissie— · vs Grant Holmes 26.6% No Home Run

#9 Mickey Moniak— · vs Freddy Peralta 25.3% Home Run

#10 Heriberto Hernández— · vs Grant Holmes 25.2% No Home Run

#11 Pete Alonso— · vs Grayson Rodriguez 24.4% No Home Run

#12 Jo Adell— · vs Sean Manaea 24.2% No Home Run

#13 Kyle Schwarber— · vs Carson Palmquist 24.2% No Home Run

#14 Michael Harris II— · vs Ryan Gusto 23.9% No Home Run

#15 Brandon Lowe— · vs Logan Henderson 23.9% No Home Run

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Tarik Skubalvs Chicago Cubs 7.8 6 -1.8

Logan Hendersonvs Pittsburgh Pirates 6.8 8 +1.2

Jared Jonesvs Milwaukee Brewers 6.2 4 -2.2

Joe Ryanvs Kansas City Royals 6.0 3 -3.0

Jesús Luzardovs Washington Nationals 5.6 7 +1.4

MacKenzie Gorevs San Francisco Giants 5.4 4 -1.4

Trey Yesavagevs Houston Astros 5.4 0 -5.4

Ryan Weathersvs St. Louis Cardinals 5.3 6 +0.7On target

Joey Cantillovs New York Mets 5.1 5 -0.1On target

Emerson Hancockvs Detroit Tigers 5.1 6 +0.9On target

Troy Meltonvs Seattle Mariners 5.1 4 -1.1

Patrick Sandovalvs Chicago White Sox 5.1 5 -0.1On target

Hunter Dobbinsvs New York Yankees 5.1 4 -1.1

Sean Manaeavs Cleveland Guardians 5.0 7 +2.0

Davis Martinvs Boston Red Sox 5.0 1 -4.0

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Shohei Ohtani— · vs Javier Assad 64.5% Hit

Fernando Tatis Jr.— · vs Eduardo Rodriguez 64.5% Hit

Yordan Alvarez— · vs Trey Yesavage 64.5% Hit

Cole Carrigg— · vs Freddy Peralta 62.6% Hit

Kyle Stowers— · vs Grant Holmes 62.6% Hit

Yandy DíazTampa Bay Rays · vs Gabriel Hughes 62.6% Hit

Luis García Jr.— · vs Hunter Dobbins 62.5% Hit

Tyler Soderstrom— · vs Brady Singer 62.5% Hit

Bryce Harper— · vs Carson Palmquist 62.4% No Hit

Elly De La Cruz— · vs J.T. Ginn 62.4% Hit

Mickey Moniak— · vs Freddy Peralta 62.4% Hit

Junior CamineroTampa Bay Rays · vs Gabriel Hughes 62.3% Hit

Kyle Schwarber— · vs Carson Palmquist 62.3% No Hit

Freddie Freeman— · vs Javier Assad 62.2% Hit

Ben Rice— · vs Hunter Dobbins 62.1% No Hit

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

Mickey Moniak — 25.3% HR probability
Tyler O'Neill — 18.6% HR probability
Austin Riley — 18.6% HR probability

Top Strikeout Calls

Logan Henderson — proj 6.8, recorded 8
Jesús Luzardo — proj 5.6, recorded 7
Ryan Weathers — proj 5.3, recorded 6

Biggest Surprises

Trey Yesavage — proj 5.4, recorded 0
Davis Martin — proj 5.0, recorded 1

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Mickey Moniak. Model HR probability 25.3% — result: Home Run.

Live on EdgeRanked

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