Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — August 4, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
16
Games covered
439
Hitters evaluated
32
Pitchers evaluated
August 4, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
No graded home run projections are available for this slate.
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarik Skubal | Chicago Cubs | 7.8 | 6 | -1.8 | |
| Logan Henderson | Pittsburgh Pirates | 6.8 | 8 | +1.2 | |
| Jared Jones | Milwaukee Brewers | 6.2 | 4 | -2.2 | |
| Joe Ryan | Kansas City Royals | 6.0 | 3 | -3.0 | |
| Jesús Luzardo | Washington Nationals | 5.6 | 7 | +1.4 | |
| MacKenzie Gore | San Francisco Giants | 5.4 | 4 | -1.4 | |
| Trey Yesavage | Houston Astros | 5.4 | 0 | -5.4 | |
| Ryan Weathers | St. Louis Cardinals | 5.3 | 6 | +0.7 | On Target |
| Joey Cantillo | New York Mets | 5.1 | 5 | -0.1 | On Target |
| Emerson Hancock | Detroit Tigers | 5.1 | 6 | +0.9 | On Target |
| Troy Melton | Seattle Mariners | 5.1 | 4 | -1.1 | |
| Patrick Sandoval | Chicago White Sox | 5.1 | 5 | -0.1 | On Target |
| Hunter Dobbins | New York Yankees | 5.1 | 4 | -1.1 | |
| Sean Manaea | Cleveland Guardians | 5.0 | 7 | +2.0 | |
| Davis Martin | Boston Red Sox | 5.0 | 1 | -4.0 |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
No graded hit projections are available for this slate.
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Strikeout Calls
- Logan Henderson — proj 6.8, recorded 8
- Jesús Luzardo — proj 5.6, recorded 7
- Ryan Weathers — proj 5.3, recorded 6
Biggest Surprises
- Trey Yesavage — proj 5.4, recorded 0
- Davis Martin — proj 5.0, recorded 1
Highest Performing Projection — Strikeout Projection: Logan Henderson. Projected 6.8 strikeouts — recorded 8.
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