Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — August 4, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
16
Games covered
439
Hitters evaluated
32
Pitchers evaluated
August 4, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Rank | Player | Team | Matchup | HR Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Hunter Goodman | Colorado Rockies | vs Freddy Peralta | 31.1% | No Home Run |
| #2 | Jac Caglianone | — | vs Joe Ryan | 31.0% | No Home Run |
| #3 | Coby Mayo | Baltimore Orioles | vs Grayson Rodriguez | 31.0% | No Home Run |
| #4 | Salvador Perez | — | vs Joe Ryan | 30.8% | No Home Run |
| #5 | Kazuma Okamoto | Toronto Blue Jays | vs Hayden Wesneski | 28.0% | No Home Run |
| #6 | Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Zack Littell | 27.9% | No Home Run |
| #7 | Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | vs Trey Yesavage | 27.4% | No Home Run |
| #8 | Owen Caissie | — | vs Grant Holmes | 26.6% | No Home Run |
| #9 | Mickey Moniak | — | vs Freddy Peralta | 25.3% | Home Run |
| #10 | Heriberto Hernández | — | vs Grant Holmes | 25.2% | No Home Run |
| #11 | Pete Alonso | — | vs Grayson Rodriguez | 24.4% | No Home Run |
| #12 | Jo Adell | — | vs Sean Manaea | 24.2% | No Home Run |
| #13 | Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Carson Palmquist | 24.2% | No Home Run |
| #14 | Michael Harris II | — | vs Ryan Gusto | 23.9% | No Home Run |
| #15 | Brandon Lowe | Pittsburgh Pirates | vs Logan Henderson | 23.9% | No Home Run |
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarik Skubal | Chicago Cubs | 7.8 | 6 | -1.8 | |
| Logan Henderson | Pittsburgh Pirates | 6.8 | 8 | +1.2 | |
| Jared Jones | Milwaukee Brewers | 6.2 | 4 | -2.2 | |
| Joe Ryan | Kansas City Royals | 6.0 | 3 | -3.0 | |
| Jesús Luzardo | Washington Nationals | 5.6 | 7 | +1.4 | |
| MacKenzie Gore | San Francisco Giants | 5.4 | 4 | -1.4 | |
| Trey Yesavage | Houston Astros | 5.4 | 0 | -5.4 | |
| Ryan Weathers | St. Louis Cardinals | 5.3 | 6 | +0.7 | On Target |
| Joey Cantillo | New York Mets | 5.1 | 5 | -0.1 | On Target |
| Emerson Hancock | Detroit Tigers | 5.1 | 6 | +0.9 | On Target |
| Troy Melton | Seattle Mariners | 5.1 | 4 | -1.1 | |
| Patrick Sandoval | Chicago White Sox | 5.1 | 5 | -0.1 | On Target |
| Hunter Dobbins | New York Yankees | 5.1 | 4 | -1.1 | |
| Sean Manaea | Cleveland Guardians | 5.0 | 7 | +2.0 | |
| Davis Martin | Boston Red Sox | 5.0 | 1 | -4.0 |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Player | Team | Matchup | Hit Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani | — | vs Javier Assad | 64.5% | Hit |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | San Diego Padres | vs Eduardo Rodriguez | 64.5% | Hit |
| Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | vs Trey Yesavage | 64.5% | Hit |
| Cole Carrigg | — | vs Freddy Peralta | 62.6% | Hit |
| Kyle Stowers | Miami Marlins | vs Grant Holmes | 62.6% | Hit |
| Yandy Díaz | Tampa Bay Rays | vs Gabriel Hughes | 62.6% | Hit |
| Luis García Jr. | — | vs Hunter Dobbins | 62.5% | Hit |
| Tyler Soderstrom | — | vs Brady Singer | 62.5% | Hit |
| Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Carson Palmquist | 62.4% | No Hit |
| Elly De La Cruz | Cincinnati Reds | vs J.T. Ginn | 62.4% | Hit |
| Mickey Moniak | — | vs Freddy Peralta | 62.4% | Hit |
| Junior Caminero | — | vs Gabriel Hughes | 62.3% | Hit |
| Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Carson Palmquist | 62.3% | No Hit |
| Freddie Freeman | — | vs Javier Assad | 62.2% | Hit |
| Ben Rice | New York Yankees | vs Hunter Dobbins | 62.1% | No Hit |
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Home Run Calls
- Mickey Moniak — 25.3% HR probability
- Tyler O'Neill — 18.6% HR probability
- Austin Riley — 18.6% HR probability
Top Strikeout Calls
- Logan Henderson — proj 6.8, recorded 8
- Jesús Luzardo — proj 5.6, recorded 7
- Ryan Weathers — proj 5.3, recorded 6
Biggest Surprises
- Trey Yesavage — proj 5.4, recorded 0
- Davis Martin — proj 5.0, recorded 1
Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Mickey Moniak. Model HR probability 25.3% — result: Home Run.
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