Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — August 1, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
16
Games covered
410
Hitters evaluated
31
Pitchers evaluated
August 1, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Rank | Player | Team | Matchup | HR Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Coby Mayo | Baltimore Orioles | vs Cristopher Sánchez | 31.8% | No Home Run |
| #2 | Brandon Lowe | — | vs Andrew Abbott | 31.1% | No Home Run |
| #3 | Hunter Goodman | Colorado Rockies | vs Luinder Avila | 31.0% | Home Run |
| #4 | Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | vs Jacob deGrom | 30.9% | No Home Run |
| #5 | Salvador Perez | Kansas City Royals | vs Ryan Feltner | 29.0% | Home Run |
| #6 | Jac Caglianone | Kansas City Royals | vs Ryan Feltner | 29.0% | Home Run |
| #7 | Kazuma Okamoto | Toronto Blue Jays | vs Quinn Mathews | 27.9% | No Home Run |
| #8 | Shohei Ohtani | — | vs Payton Tolle | 26.2% | No Home Run |
| #9 | Carter Jensen | — | vs Ryan Feltner | 26.2% | No Home Run |
| #10 | Royce Lewis | — | vs Logan Gilbert | 26.1% | No Home Run |
| #11 | Zach Neto | — | vs Robert Gasser | 25.0% | No Home Run |
| #12 | Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Shane Baz | 24.3% | No Home Run |
| #13 | Kody Clemens | — | vs Logan Gilbert | 24.2% | No Home Run |
| #14 | Michael Harris II | — | vs Miles Mikolas | 24.1% | No Home Run |
| #15 | Heriberto Hernández | Miami Marlins | vs Zac Thornton | 23.9% | No Home Run |
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob deGrom | Houston Astros | 6.4 | 3 | -3.4 | |
| Cristopher Sánchez | Baltimore Orioles | 6.3 | 11 | +4.7 | |
| Logan Gilbert | Minnesota Twins | 6.1 | 6 | -0.1 | On Target |
| Braxton Ashcraft | Cincinnati Reds | 6.1 | 5 | -1.1 | |
| Ronel Blanco | Texas Rangers | 6.0 | 4 | -2.0 | |
| Connor Prielipp | Seattle Mariners | 5.8 | 5 | -0.8 | On Target |
| Payton Tolle | Los Angeles Dodgers | 5.5 | 7 | +1.5 | |
| Jack Perkins | Detroit Tigers | 5.3 | 9 | +3.7 | |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Boston Red Sox | 5.2 | 3 | -2.2 | |
| Drew Rasmussen | Chicago White Sox | 5.2 | 10 | +4.8 | |
| Parker Messick | Arizona Diamondbacks | 5.1 | 6 | +0.9 | On Target |
| Quinn Mathews | Toronto Blue Jays | 5.1 | 3 | -2.1 | |
| Max Fried | Chicago Cubs | 5.1 | 7 | +1.9 | |
| Kevin Gausman | St. Louis Cardinals | 5.1 | 4 | -1.1 | |
| Tyler Mahle | San Diego Padres | 4.8 | 9 | +4.2 |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Player | Team | Matchup | Hit Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani | — | vs Payton Tolle | 62.7% | Hit |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | San Diego Padres | vs Tyler Mahle | 62.5% | No Hit |
| Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Shane Baz | 62.5% | Hit |
| Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | vs Jacob deGrom | 62.4% | Hit |
| Rafael Devers | — | vs Walker Buehler | 62.3% | Hit |
| Bryan Reynolds | — | vs Andrew Abbott | 61.9% | Hit |
| Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Shane Baz | 61.9% | No Hit |
| CJ Abrams | — | vs Reynaldo López | 61.9% | Hit |
| TJ Rumfield | — | vs Luinder Avila | 61.8% | Hit |
| Tyler Soderstrom | — | vs Framber Valdez | 61.6% | Hit |
| Mickey Moniak | Colorado Rockies | vs Luinder Avila | 61.4% | Hit |
| Brett Baty | New York Mets | vs Tyler Phillips | 61.4% | No Hit |
| Willi Castro | — | vs Luinder Avila | 61.3% | Hit |
| Seiya Suzuki | Chicago Cubs | vs Max Fried | 61.3% | Hit |
| Lane Thomas | — | vs Ryan Feltner | 61.3% | Hit |
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Home Run Calls
- Hunter Goodman — 31.0% HR probability
- Salvador Perez — 29.0% HR probability
- Jac Caglianone — 29.0% HR probability
Top Strikeout Calls
- Cristopher Sánchez — proj 6.3, recorded 11
- Payton Tolle — proj 5.5, recorded 7
- Jack Perkins — proj 5.3, recorded 9
Biggest Surprises
- Drew Rasmussen — proj 5.2, recorded 10
- Cristopher Sánchez — proj 6.3, recorded 11
Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Hunter Goodman. Model HR probability 31.0% — result: Home Run.
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