MLB Results — August 1, 2026

MLB Model Results — August 1, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

#1 Coby Mayo— · vs Cristopher Sánchez 31.8% No Home Run

#2 Brandon Lowe— · vs Andrew Abbott 31.1% No Home Run

#3 Hunter Goodman— · vs Luinder Avila 31.0% Home Run

#4 Yordan Alvarez— · vs Jacob deGrom 30.9% No Home Run

#5 Salvador Perez— · vs Ryan Feltner 29.0% Home Run

#6 Jac Caglianone— · vs Ryan Feltner 29.0% Home Run

#7 Kazuma Okamoto— · vs Quinn Mathews 27.9% No Home Run

#8 Shohei Ohtani— · vs Payton Tolle 26.2% No Home Run

#9 Carter Jensen— · vs Ryan Feltner 26.2% No Home Run

#10 Royce Lewis— · vs Logan Gilbert 26.1% No Home Run

#11 Zach Neto— · vs Robert Gasser 25.0% No Home Run

#12 Kyle Schwarber— · vs Shane Baz 24.3% No Home Run

#13 Kody Clemens— · vs Logan Gilbert 24.2% No Home Run

#14 Michael Harris II— · vs Miles Mikolas 24.1% No Home Run

#15 Heriberto Hernández— · vs Zac Thornton 23.9% No Home Run

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Jacob deGromvs Houston Astros 6.4 3 -3.4

Cristopher Sánchezvs Baltimore Orioles 6.3 11 +4.7

Logan Gilbertvs Minnesota Twins 6.1 6 -0.1On target

Braxton Ashcraftvs Cincinnati Reds 6.1 5 -1.1

Ronel Blancovs Texas Rangers 6.0 4 -2.0

Connor Prielippvs Seattle Mariners 5.8 5 -0.8On target

Payton Tollevs Los Angeles Dodgers 5.5 7 +1.5

Jack Perkinsvs Detroit Tigers 5.3 9 +3.7

Yoshinobu Yamamotovs Boston Red Sox 5.2 3 -2.2

Drew Rasmussenvs Chicago White Sox 5.2 10 +4.8

Parker Messickvs Arizona Diamondbacks 5.1 6 +0.9On target

Quinn Mathewsvs Toronto Blue Jays 5.1 3 -2.1

Max Friedvs Chicago Cubs 5.1 7 +1.9

Kevin Gausmanvs St. Louis Cardinals 5.1 4 -1.1

Tyler Mahlevs San Diego Padres 4.8 9 +4.2

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Shohei Ohtani— · vs Payton Tolle 62.7% Hit

Fernando Tatis Jr.— · vs Tyler Mahle 62.5% No Hit

Bryce Harper— · vs Shane Baz 62.5% Hit

Yordan Alvarez— · vs Jacob deGrom 62.4% Hit

Rafael Devers— · vs Walker Buehler 62.3% Hit

Bryan Reynolds— · vs Andrew Abbott 61.9% Hit

Kyle Schwarber— · vs Shane Baz 61.9% No Hit

CJ Abrams— · vs Reynaldo López 61.9% Hit

TJ Rumfield— · vs Luinder Avila 61.8% Hit

Tyler Soderstrom— · vs Framber Valdez 61.6% Hit

Mickey Moniak— · vs Luinder Avila 61.4% Hit

Brett Baty— · vs Tyler Phillips 61.4% No Hit

Willi Castro— · vs Luinder Avila 61.3% Hit

Seiya Suzuki— · vs Max Fried 61.3% Hit

Lane Thomas— · vs Ryan Feltner 61.3% Hit

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

Hunter Goodman — 31.0% HR probability
Salvador Perez — 29.0% HR probability
Jac Caglianone — 29.0% HR probability

Top Strikeout Calls

Cristopher Sánchez — proj 6.3, recorded 11
Payton Tolle — proj 5.5, recorded 7
Jack Perkins — proj 5.3, recorded 9

Biggest Surprises

Drew Rasmussen — proj 5.2, recorded 10
Cristopher Sánchez — proj 6.3, recorded 11

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Hunter Goodman. Model HR probability 31.0% — result: Home Run.

Live on EdgeRanked

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