MLB Results — July 22, 2026

MLB Model Results — July 22, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

#1 Hunter Goodman— · vs Cade Cavalli 31.6% No Home Run

#2 Kyle Schwarber— · vs Eric Lauer 31.1% No Home Run

#3 Coby Mayo— · vs Jake Bennett 31.0% No Home Run

#4 Heriberto Hernández— · vs Peter Lambert 30.3% No Home Run

#5 Yordan Alvarez— · vs Sandy Alcantara 26.6% Home Run

#6 Kazuma Okamoto— · vs Griffin Jax 26.2% No Home Run

#7 Mickey Moniak— · vs Cade Cavalli 25.2% No Home Run

#8 Luke Raley— · vs Brady Singer 25.2% No Home Run

#9 James Wood— · vs Gabriel Hughes 25.2% No Home Run

#10 Shohei Ohtani— · vs Aaron Nola 25.0% No Home Run

#11 Brandon Lowe— · vs Gerrit Cole 25.0% No Home Run

#12 Jake Burger— · vs Anthony Kay 24.2% No Home Run

#13 Michael Conforto— · vs Keider Montero 24.2% No Home Run

#14 Austin Riley— · vs Michael King 23.9% No Home Run

#15 Matt Olson— · vs Michael King 23.9% No Home Run

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Kyle Bradishvs Boston Red Sox 7.2 4 -3.2

Logan Hendersonvs New York Mets 6.1 9 +2.9

Christian Scottvs Milwaukee Brewers 5.9 6 +0.1On target

Griffin Jaxvs Toronto Blue Jays 5.6 5 -0.6On target

Reid Detmersvs St. Louis Cardinals 5.5 6 +0.5On target

Cade Cavallivs Colorado Rockies 5.5 8 +2.5

Emerson Hancockvs Cincinnati Reds 5.5 3 -2.5

Gerrit Colevs Pittsburgh Pirates 5.4 11 +5.6

Gabriel Hughesvs Washington Nationals 5.3 5 -0.3On target

Dean Kremervs Boston Red Sox 5.3 5 -0.3On target

Hunter Dobbinsvs Los Angeles Angels 5.2 5 -0.2On target

Gage Jumpvs Arizona Diamondbacks 5.1 5 -0.1On target

Aaron Nolavs Los Angeles Dodgers 5.1 4 -1.1

Landen Rouppvs Kansas City Royals 5.1 7 +1.9

Peter Lambertvs Miami Marlins 5.1 3 -2.1

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Yordan Alvarez— · vs Sandy Alcantara 62.9% Hit

Fernando Tatis Jr.— · vs Martín Pérez 62.3% Hit

Shohei Ohtani— · vs Aaron Nola 61.9% No Hit

Tyler Soderstrom— · vs Merrill Kelly 61.7% Hit

Kyle Schwarber— · vs Eric Lauer 61.4% Hit

Bryce Harper— · vs Eric Lauer 61.4% No Hit

Seiya Suzuki— · vs Keider Montero 61.3% Hit

Derek Hill— · vs Eric Lauer 61.0% No Hit

Ben Rice— · vs Mitch Keller 60.9% No Hit

CJ Abrams— · vs Gabriel Hughes 60.8% Hit

Kyle Stowers— · vs Peter Lambert 60.6% No Hit

Yandy DíazTampa Bay Rays · vs Braydon Fisher 60.6% No Hit

James Wood— · vs Gabriel Hughes 60.6% No Hit

Rafael Devers— · vs Seth Lugo 60.6% Hit

Riley Greene— · vs Colin Rea 60.5% Hit

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

Yordan Alvarez — 26.6% HR probability
Luis García Jr. — 23.9% HR probability
Salvador Perez — 23.9% HR probability

Top Strikeout Calls

Logan Henderson — proj 6.1, recorded 9
Christian Scott — proj 5.9, recorded 6
Reid Detmers — proj 5.5, recorded 6

Biggest Surprises

Gerrit Cole — proj 5.4, recorded 11
Keider Montero — proj 4.5, recorded 8

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Yordan Alvarez. Model HR probability 26.6% — result: Home Run.

Live on EdgeRanked

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