MLB Results — July 16, 2026

MLB Model Results — July 16, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

#1 Kyle Schwarber— · vs Christian Scott 28.4% No Home Run

#2 Francisco Lindor— · vs Aaron Nola 17.9% No Home Run

#3 Juan Soto— · vs Aaron Nola 17.7% No Home Run

#4 Bryce Harper— · vs Christian Scott 16.8% No Home Run

#5 Tyrone Taylor— · vs Aaron Nola 16.7% No Home Run

#6 Jared Young— · vs Aaron Nola 15.3% No Home Run

#7 A.J. Ewing— · vs Aaron Nola 13.2% No Home Run

#8 Carson Benge— · vs Aaron Nola 12.9% No Home Run

#9 Brandon Marsh— · vs Christian Scott 12.4% No Home Run

#10 Francisco Alvarez— · vs Aaron Nola 12.2% Home Run

#11 Bo Bichette— · vs Aaron Nola 11.6% No Home Run

#12 Trea Turner— · vs Christian Scott 10.9% Home Run

#13 Gabriel Rincones Jr.— · vs Christian Scott 10.6% No Home Run

#14 Bryson Stott— · vs Christian Scott 10.6% No Home Run

#15 Jorge Polanco— · vs Aaron Nola 10.6% No Home Run

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Christian Scottvs Philadelphia Phillies 5.6 7 +1.4

Aaron Nolavs New York Mets 5.2 6 +0.8On target

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Juan Soto— · vs Aaron Nola 61.6% Hit

Bryce Harper— · vs Christian Scott 61.1% Hit

Brandon Marsh— · vs Christian Scott 60.3% No Hit

Kyle Schwarber— · vs Christian Scott 59.0% Hit

A.J. Ewing— · vs Aaron Nola 58.9% Hit

Brett Baty— · vs Aaron Nola 58.9% Hit

Bo Bichette— · vs Aaron Nola 58.1% No Hit

Carson Benge— · vs Aaron Nola 56.8% Hit

Francisco Lindor— · vs Aaron Nola 56.3% No Hit

Francisco Alvarez— · vs Aaron Nola 55.7% Hit

Trea Turner— · vs Christian Scott 55.6% Hit

Jared Young— · vs Aaron Nola 55.5% No Hit

Bryson Stott— · vs Christian Scott 55.2% No Hit

J.T. Realmuto— · vs Christian Scott 54.4% Hit

Jorge Polanco— · vs Aaron Nola 54.3% No Hit

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

Francisco Alvarez — 12.2% HR probability
Trea Turner — 10.9% HR probability
Brett Baty — 5.7% HR probability

Top Strikeout Calls

Christian Scott — proj 5.6, recorded 7
Aaron Nola — proj 5.2, recorded 6

Biggest Surprises

Christian Scott — proj 5.6, recorded 7
Aaron Nola — proj 5.2, recorded 6

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Francisco Alvarez. Model HR probability 12.2% — result: Home Run.

Live on EdgeRanked

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This is a graded past slate. EdgeRanked publishes the same home run, strikeout, and hit probability analysis for today's games before first pitch.

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