MLB Results

MLB Model Results — June 16, 2026

Home run threat, strikeout, and hit probability results for this MLB slate.

OverviewTop PlaysPitchersHittersHome Run ThreatsIntelMatchup HistoryWeatherResultsStadiums
← June 15, 2026Back to Results Archive
Slate Summary

MLB Model Results — June 16, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

16
Games covered
404
Hitters evaluated
31
Pitchers evaluated
June 16, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

RankPlayerTeamMatchupHR ProbabilityResult
#1Byron Buxton—vs Kumar Rocker25.4%No Home Run
#2Christian WalkerHouston Astrosvs Framber Valdez22.5%No Home Run
#3Juan SotoNew York Metsvs Brady Singer21.9%No Home Run
#4Fernando Tatis Jr.San Diego Padresvs Andre Pallante21.7%No Home Run
#5Mike TroutLos Angeles Angelsvs Merrill Kelly21.6%Home Run
#6Austin RileyAtlanta Bravesvs Adrian Houser21.3%No Home Run
#7Rafael DeversSan Francisco Giantsvs Grant Holmes21.0%No Home Run
#8Junior Caminero—vs Justin Wrobleski20.6%No Home Run
#9Bryce HarperPhiladelphia Philliesvs Tyler Phillips19.8%No Home Run
#10Nick Kurtz—vs Mitch Keller19.5%No Home Run
#11Brandon LowePittsburgh Piratesvs Jack Perkins19.0%No Home Run
#12Kyle SchwarberPhiladelphia Philliesvs Tyler Phillips19.0%Home Run
#13Shea Langeliers—vs Mitch Keller18.7%No Home Run
#14Tyler Soderstrom—vs Mitch Keller18.2%No Home Run
#15Hunter GoodmanColorado Rockiesvs Edward Cabrera17.9%No Home Run
Strikeouts

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

PitcherOpponentProjected KsActual KsDifference
Davis MartinNew York Yankees6.34-2.3
Hunter BrownDetroit Tigers6.27+0.8On Target
Jesús LuzardoMiami Marlins6.29+2.8
Dylan CeaseBoston Red Sox6.07+1.0On Target
Foster GriffinKansas City Royals5.86+0.2On Target
Logan GilbertBaltimore Orioles5.710+4.3
Drew RasmussenLos Angeles Dodgers5.67+1.4
Payton TolleToronto Blue Jays5.56+0.5On Target
Reid DetmersArizona Diamondbacks5.53-2.5
Gerrit ColeChicago White Sox5.56+0.5On Target
Zebby MatthewsTexas Rangers5.44-1.4
Michael WachaWashington Nationals5.43-2.4
Tyler PhillipsPhiladelphia Phillies5.34-1.3
Michael KingSt. Louis Cardinals5.31-4.3
Jack PerkinsPittsburgh Pirates5.16+0.9On Target
Hit Probability

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

PlayerTeamMatchupHit ProbabilityResult
Brandon LowePittsburgh Piratesvs Jack Perkins65.0%No Hit
Juan SotoNew York Metsvs Brady Singer65.0%Hit
Fernando Tatis Jr.San Diego Padresvs Andre Pallante65.0%Hit
Austin RileyAtlanta Bravesvs Adrian Houser65.0%No Hit
Junior Caminero—vs Justin Wrobleski65.0%No Hit
Bobby Witt Jr.Kansas City Royalsvs Foster Griffin65.0%Hit
Jose SiriLos Angeles Angelsvs Merrill Kelly65.0%No Hit
Byron Buxton—vs Kumar Rocker65.0%Hit
Logan O'HoppeLos Angeles Angelsvs Merrill Kelly65.0%Hit
Christian WalkerHouston Astrosvs Framber Valdez65.0%Hit
Nick Kurtz—vs Mitch Keller65.0%No Hit
Rafael DeversSan Francisco Giantsvs Grant Holmes65.0%No Hit
Jo AdellLos Angeles Angelsvs Merrill Kelly65.0%Hit
Mike TroutLos Angeles Angelsvs Merrill Kelly65.0%Hit
Bryce HarperPhiladelphia Philliesvs Tyler Phillips65.0%No Hit
Model Highlights

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

Top Strikeout Calls

Biggest Surprises

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Mike Trout. Model HR probability 21.6% — result: Home Run.
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