MLB Results — June 16, 2026

MLB Model Results — June 16, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

#1 Byron Buxton— · vs Kumar Rocker 25.4% No Home Run

#2 Christian Walker— · vs Framber Valdez 22.5% No Home Run

#3 Juan Soto— · vs Brady Singer 21.9% No Home Run

#4 Fernando Tatis Jr.— · vs Andre Pallante 21.7% No Home Run

#5 Mike Trout— · vs Merrill Kelly 21.6% Home Run

#6 Austin Riley— · vs Adrian Houser 21.3% No Home Run

#7 Rafael Devers— · vs Grant Holmes 21.0% Home Run

#8 Junior CamineroTampa Bay Rays · vs Justin Wrobleski 20.6% No Home Run

#9 Bryce Harper— · vs Tyler Phillips 19.8% No Home Run

#10 Nick Kurtz— · vs Mitch Keller 19.5% No Home Run

#11 Kyle Schwarber— · vs Tyler Phillips 19.0% Home Run

#12 Brandon Lowe— · vs Jack Perkins 19.0% Home Run

#13 Shea Langeliers— · vs Mitch Keller 18.7% No Home Run

#14 Tyler Soderstrom— · vs Mitch Keller 18.2% No Home Run

#15 Hunter Goodman— · vs Edward Cabrera 17.9% No Home Run

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Davis Martinvs New York Yankees 6.3 4 -2.3

Hunter Brownvs Detroit Tigers 6.2 7 +0.8On target

Jesús Luzardovs Miami Marlins 6.2 9 +2.8

Dylan Ceasevs Boston Red Sox 6.0 7 +1.0On target

Foster Griffinvs Kansas City Royals 5.8 6 +0.2On target

Logan Gilbertvs Baltimore Orioles 5.7 10 +4.3

Drew Rasmussenvs Los Angeles Dodgers 5.6 7 +1.4

Payton Tollevs Toronto Blue Jays 5.5 6 +0.5On target

Reid Detmersvs Arizona Diamondbacks 5.5 3 -2.5

Gerrit Colevs Chicago White Sox 5.5 6 +0.5On target

Zebby Matthewsvs Texas Rangers 5.4 4 -1.4

Michael Wachavs Washington Nationals 5.4 3 -2.4

Tyler Phillipsvs Philadelphia Phillies 5.3 4 -1.3

Michael Kingvs St. Louis Cardinals 5.3 1 -4.3

Jack Perkinsvs Pittsburgh Pirates 5.1 6 +0.9On target

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Fernando Tatis Jr.— · vs Andre Pallante 65.0% Hit

Bobby Witt Jr.— · vs Foster Griffin 65.0% Hit

Brandon Lowe— · vs Jack Perkins 65.0% Hit

Jose Siri— · vs Merrill Kelly 65.0% No Hit

Jo Adell— · vs Merrill Kelly 65.0% Hit

Nick Kurtz— · vs Mitch Keller 65.0% Hit

Mike Trout— · vs Merrill Kelly 65.0% Hit

Logan O'Hoppe— · vs Merrill Kelly 65.0% Hit

Bryce Harper— · vs Tyler Phillips 65.0% No Hit

Rafael Devers— · vs Grant Holmes 65.0% Hit

Juan Soto— · vs Brady Singer 65.0% Hit

Christian Walker— · vs Framber Valdez 65.0% Hit

Austin Riley— · vs Adrian Houser 65.0% Hit

Byron Buxton— · vs Kumar Rocker 65.0% Hit

Junior CamineroTampa Bay Rays · vs Justin Wrobleski 65.0% No Hit

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

Mike Trout — 21.6% HR probability
Rafael Devers — 21.0% HR probability
Kyle Schwarber — 19.0% HR probability

Top Strikeout Calls

Hunter Brown — proj 6.2, recorded 7
Jesús Luzardo — proj 6.2, recorded 9
Dylan Cease — proj 6.0, recorded 7

Biggest Surprises

Logan Gilbert — proj 5.7, recorded 10
Michael King — proj 5.3, recorded 1

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Mike Trout. Model HR probability 21.6% — result: Home Run.

Live on EdgeRanked

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