MLB Results

MLB Model Results — June 15, 2026

Home run threat, strikeout, and hit probability results for this MLB slate.

OverviewTop PlaysPitchersHittersHome Run ThreatsIntelMatchup HistoryWeatherResultsStadiums
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Slate Summary

MLB Model Results — June 15, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

10
Games covered
261
Hitters evaluated
19
Pitchers evaluated
June 15, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

RankPlayerTeamMatchupHR ProbabilityResult
#1Byron Buxton—vs MacKenzie Gore23.9%Home Run
#2Brandon LowePittsburgh Piratesvs J.T. Ginn21.1%No Home Run
#3Juan SotoNew York Metsvs Chase Burns20.5%No Home Run
#4Bryce HarperPhiladelphia Philliesvs Ryan Gusto20.1%No Home Run
#5Christian WalkerHouston Astrosvs Troy Melton20.1%No Home Run
#6Mike TroutLos Angeles Angelsvs Ryne Nelson19.4%Home Run
#7Junior Caminero—vs Eric Lauer19.4%No Home Run
#8Shohei OhtaniLos Angeles Dodgersvs Nick Martinez18.8%No Home Run
#9Yordan Alvarez—vs Troy Melton18.2%No Home Run
#10Hunter GoodmanColorado Rockiesvs Shota Imanaga18.0%No Home Run
#11Max Muncy—vs Nick Martinez17.9%No Home Run
#12Kyle SchwarberPhiladelphia Philliesvs Ryan Gusto17.7%No Home Run
#13Nick Kurtz—vs Jared Jones17.6%Home Run
#14Tyler Soderstrom—vs Jared Jones17.3%No Home Run
#15Shea Langeliers—vs Jared Jones17.2%No Home Run
Strikeouts

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

PitcherOpponentProjected KsActual KsDifference
Zack WheelerMiami Marlins6.59+2.5
Chase BurnsNew York Mets6.27+0.8On Target
Dustin MaySan Diego Padres6.29+2.8
Shota ImanagaColorado Rockies6.13-3.1
J.T. GinnPittsburgh Pirates5.93-2.9
Kai-Wei TengDetroit Tigers5.49+3.6
Walbert UreñaArizona Diamondbacks5.43-2.4
MacKenzie GoreMinnesota Twins5.410+4.6
Ryne NelsonLos Angeles Angels4.65+0.4On Target
Andrew AlvarezKansas City Royals4.55+0.5On Target
Eric LauerTampa Bay Rays4.54-0.5On Target
Jared JonesAthletics4.34-0.3On Target
Nick MartinezLos Angeles Dodgers3.96+2.1
Michael LorenzenChicago Cubs3.85+1.2
Tobias MyersCincinnati Reds1.31-0.3On Target
Hit Probability

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

PlayerTeamMatchupHit ProbabilityResult
Byron Buxton—vs MacKenzie Gore65.0%Hit
Brandon LowePittsburgh Piratesvs J.T. Ginn65.0%Hit
Christian WalkerHouston Astrosvs Troy Melton65.0%No Hit
Junior Caminero—vs Eric Lauer65.0%Hit
Fernando Tatis Jr.San Diego Padresvs Dustin May65.0%No Hit
Bryce HarperPhiladelphia Philliesvs Ryan Gusto65.0%No Hit
Juan SotoNew York Metsvs Chase Burns65.0%No Hit
Mike TroutLos Angeles Angelsvs Ryne Nelson65.0%Hit
Jake Burger—vs Unknown Pitcher65.0%Hit
Bobby Witt Jr.Kansas City Royalsvs Andrew Alvarez65.0%No Hit
Andy Pages—vs Nick Martinez65.0%No Hit
Hunter GoodmanColorado Rockiesvs Shota Imanaga64.7%Hit
CJ AbramsWashington Nationalsvs Mitch Spence64.5%No Hit
Alex Bregman—vs Michael Lorenzen63.7%Hit
Max Muncy—vs Nick Martinez63.1%Hit
Model Highlights

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

Top Strikeout Calls

Biggest Surprises

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Byron Buxton. Model HR probability 23.9% — result: Home Run.
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