MLB Results

MLB Model Results — June 7, 2026

Home run threat, strikeout, and hit probability results for this MLB slate.

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Slate Summary

MLB Model Results — June 7, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

15
Games covered
390
Hitters evaluated
30
Pitchers evaluated
June 7, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

RankPlayerTeamMatchupHR ProbabilityResult
#1Hunter GoodmanColorado Rockiesvs Shane Drohan18.4%Home Run
#2Brandon LowePittsburgh Piratesvs Bryce Elder17.8%No Home Run
#3Juan SotoNew York Metsvs Randy Vásquez17.5%No Home Run
#4Yordan Alvarez—vs Gage Jump17.3%No Home Run
#5Bryce HarperPhiladelphia Philliesvs Tyler Gilbert17.2%No Home Run
#6Nick KurtzAthleticsvs Mike Burrows16.9%Home Run
#7Tyler Soderstrom—vs Mike Burrows16.8%No Home Run
#8Shohei OhtaniLos Angeles Dodgersvs José Soriano16.8%No Home Run
#9Brent RookerAthleticsvs Mike Burrows16.8%Home Run
#10Kyle SchwarberPhiladelphia Philliesvs Tyler Gilbert16.4%No Home Run
#11Christian WalkerHouston Astrosvs Gage Jump16.3%No Home Run
#12Oneil Cruz—vs Bryce Elder16.2%No Home Run
#13Pete AlonsoBaltimore Oriolesvs Kevin Gausman15.9%No Home Run
#14Junior CamineroTampa Bay Raysvs Sandy Alcantara15.5%No Home Run
#15Colson MontgomeryChicago White Soxvs Aaron Nola15.5%No Home Run
Strikeouts

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

PitcherOpponentProjected KsActual KsDifference
Cam SchlittlerBoston Red Sox7.35-2.3
Jacob deGromCleveland Guardians6.86-0.8On Target
Emmet SheehanLos Angeles Angels6.22-4.2
Michael SorokaWashington Nationals6.26-0.2On Target
Cade CavalliArizona Diamondbacks6.22-4.2
Aaron NolaChicago White Sox6.14-2.1
Gage JumpHouston Astros6.03-3.0
Bryce ElderPittsburgh Pirates6.04-2.0
Noah CameronMinnesota Twins6.07+1.0
Shane BazToronto Blue Jays5.83-2.8
Kevin GausmanBaltimore Orioles5.75-0.7On Target
Luis CastilloDetroit Tigers5.55-0.5On Target
Jameson TaillonSan Francisco Giants5.52-3.5
Ranger SuarezNew York Yankees5.46+0.6On Target
José SorianoLos Angeles Dodgers5.42-3.4
Hit Probability

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

PlayerTeamMatchupHit ProbabilityResult
Hunter GoodmanColorado Rockiesvs Shane Drohan65.0%Hit
Brandon LowePittsburgh Piratesvs Bryce Elder65.0%Hit
Junior CamineroTampa Bay Raysvs Sandy Alcantara65.0%No Hit
Gary Sánchez—vs Kyle Freeland65.0%Hit
Andrew Vaughn—vs Kyle Freeland65.0%Hit
Yordan Alvarez—vs Gage Jump65.0%Hit
Ben Rice—vs Ranger Suarez65.0%No Hit
Brice Turang—vs Kyle Freeland65.0%Hit
Ian HappChicago Cubsvs Trevor McDonald65.0%Hit
Max MuncyLos Angeles Dodgersvs José Soriano65.0%Hit
Bryce Eldridge—vs Jameson Taillon65.0%No Hit
Jackson Chourio—vs Kyle Freeland64.7%Hit
Christian WalkerHouston Astrosvs Gage Jump64.3%No Hit
Casey SchmittSan Francisco Giantsvs Jameson Taillon64.3%No Hit
Fernando Tatis Jr.San Diego Padresvs Huascar Brazobán64.0%Hit
Model Highlights

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

  • Hunter Goodman — 18.4% HR probability
  • Nick Kurtz — 16.9% HR probability
  • Brent Rooker — 16.8% HR probability

Top Strikeout Calls

  • Noah Cameron — proj 6.0, recorded 7
  • Ranger Suarez — proj 5.4, recorded 6
  • Trevor McDonald — proj 5.4, recorded 6

Biggest Surprises

  • Emmet Sheehan — proj 6.2, recorded 2
  • Cade Cavalli — proj 6.2, recorded 2
Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Hunter Goodman. Model HR probability 18.4% — result: Home Run.
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