Hitter projections graded
7,310
Of 9,517 archived since 2026-03-26; last graded 2026-06-09.
MLB
MLB Projection Accuracy
Hitter and pitcher projections graded against final box scores, updated daily.
Pitcher strikeout projection error
±1.82 Ks
Average miss vs final box score across 767 graded starts; last graded 2026-06-09.
Pitcher innings-depth projection error
±2.82 outs
Average miss on recorded outs across 510 graded starts.
Tracking freshness
2026-06-10
Most recent tracked date; current as of the latest completed slate.
Hit probability vs. observed outcomes
Each graded hitter projection carries a pre-game hit probability. Grouping graded projections by that probability shows how often players in each band actually recorded a hit.
| Pre-game hit probability | Graded projections | Average projected | Actually hit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 40% | 258 | 37.8% | 50.8% |
| 40–50% | 1,824 | 46.1% | 48.2% |
| 50–60% | 3,200 | 55.0% | 56.5% |
| 60%+ | 2,028 | 63.4% | 57.6% |
Method: projections are archived to tracking files before first pitch. After games complete, final box-score stats are written next to each archived projection. All figures on this page are computed from those files at page load — no re-modeling, no adjustments.