Hitter projections graded
34,054
Of 43,011 archived since 2026-03-26; last graded 2026-09-10.
MLB
MLB Projection Accuracy
Hitter and pitcher projections graded against final box scores, updated daily.
Pitcher strikeout projection error
±1.84 Ks
Average miss vs final box score across 3,135 graded starts; last graded 2026-09-10.
Pitcher innings-depth projection error
±3.31 outs
Average miss on recorded outs across 2,878 graded starts.
Tracking freshness
2026-09-11
Most recent tracked date; current as of the latest completed slate.
Hit probability vs. observed outcomes
Each graded hitter projection carries a pre-game hit probability. Grouping graded projections by that probability shows how often players in each band actually recorded a hit.
| Pre-game hit probability | Graded projections | Average projected | Actually hit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 40% | 828 | 37.8% | 42.4% |
| 40–50% | 9,999 | 46.1% | 46.3% |
| 50–60% | 18,907 | 54.9% | 58.0% |
| 60%+ | 4,320 | 62.5% | 61.7% |
Method: projections are archived to tracking files before first pitch. After games complete, final box-score stats are written next to each archived projection. All figures on this page are computed from those files at page load — no re-modeling, no adjustments.