Projection accuracy — last 30 days
78.3%
15,708 player projections graded vs final box scores; normalized MAE 0.78, RMSE 2.67, bias -0.03; share within ±2 shown; last graded 2026-07-09.
WNBA
WNBA Projection Accuracy
How close our published player projections land to the final box score.
Season projection results
0.76
Overall normalized MAE across 20,717 graded projections; pooled MAE 1.63, RMSE 2.79, bias -0.05; 2025-07-05 to 2026-07-09.
Daily pipeline validation
FAIL
Slate 2026-10-17: projections generate, freshness and slate checks pass, and publishing completes. Indicates pipeline health, not model accuracy.
Slate verification
Verified
1 of 1 games matched an independent schedule source before publishing.
Category-by-category accuracy
Every published projection graded against the official box score. Bias is projected minus actual (negative = under-projected).
| Category | Graded | MAE | RMSE | Bias | Med|E| | ±1 | ±2 | ±3 | Proj avg | Actual avg | Last graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 1,882 | 4.47 | 5.93 | -0.55 | 3.44 | 15.5% | 31.2% | 44.3% | 9.18 | 9.72 | 2026-07-09 |
| Rebounds | 1,882 | 1.87 | 2.42 | 0.08 | 1.49 | 34.3% | 63.7% | 81.3% | 3.77 | 3.69 | 2026-07-09 |
| Assists | 1,882 | 1.32 | 1.76 | 0.02 | 1.02 | 49.2% | 80.3% | 92.1% | 2.27 | 2.25 | 2026-07-09 |
| Made threes | 1,882 | 0.81 | 1.13 | 0.03 | 0.58 | 70.8% | 93.2% | 97.6% | 0.97 | 0.94 | 2026-07-09 |
| Steals | 1,882 | 0.76 | 0.97 | 0.06 | 0.63 | 74.8% | 95.9% | 99.2% | 0.87 | 0.81 | 2026-07-09 |
| Blocks | 1,882 | 0.54 | 0.74 | 0.07 | 0.38 | 89.3% | 97.9% | 99.5% | 0.51 | 0.44 | 2026-07-09 |
| Minutes | 1,885 | 5.05 | 6.47 | -0.25 | 4.08 | 13.2% | 25.7% | 37.1% | 21.67 | 21.92 | 2026-07-09 |
| Pts+Reb+Ast | 1,885 | 6.15 | 7.94 | -0.37 | 5.01 | 11.2% | 21.8% | 32.0% | 15.31 | 15.68 | 2026-07-09 |
| Pts+Reb | 1,885 | 5.62 | 7.29 | -0.43 | 4.56 | 11.4% | 23.4% | 34.6% | 13.00 | 13.43 | 2026-07-09 |
| Pts+Ast | 1,885 | 5.18 | 6.78 | -0.45 | 4.15 | 13.2% | 26.3% | 38.8% | 11.53 | 11.99 | 2026-07-09 |
| Reb+Ast | 1,885 | 2.55 | 3.26 | 0.10 | 2.12 | 25.2% | 47.5% | 66.7% | 6.04 | 5.94 | 2026-07-09 |
Rolling 30-day MAE trend spans 2025-07-05 to 2026-07-09 (47 graded slates); latest rolling MAE 1.57. Full per-slate series in projection_accuracy_report.json.
Largest over-projections
Projections that most exceeded the final box score.
| Player | Category | Slate | Projected | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caitlin Clark | Pts+Ast | 2026-07-08 | 50.33 | 12.00 | 38.33 |
| Caitlin Clark | Pts+Reb+Ast | 2026-07-08 | 51.37 | 16.00 | 35.37 |
| Lauren Betts | Pts+Reb+Ast | 2026-05-08 | 31.17 | 6.00 | 25.17 |
| Caitlin Clark | Pts+Reb | 2026-07-08 | 37.99 | 13.00 | 24.99 |
| Lauren Betts | Pts+Reb+Ast | 2026-06-06 | 32.71 | 8.00 | 24.71 |
| Lauren Betts | Pts+Reb+Ast | 2026-05-24 | 32.93 | 9.00 | 23.93 |
| Georgia Amoore | Pts+Reb+Ast | 2026-06-06 | 26.78 | 3.00 | 23.78 |
| Georgia Amoore | Pts+Ast | 2026-06-06 | 24.44 | 1.00 | 23.44 |
| Kelsey Plum | Pts+Reb+Ast | 2026-06-15 | 34.10 | 11.00 | 23.10 |
| Lauren Betts | Pts+Reb | 2026-05-08 | 28.02 | 5.00 | 23.02 |
Largest under-projections
Projections the box score most exceeded.
| Player | Category | Slate | Projected | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marina Mabrey | Pts+Reb | 2026-06-25 | 21.11 | 59.00 | -37.89 |
| Marina Mabrey | Pts+Reb+Ast | 2026-06-25 | 25.55 | 61.00 | -35.45 |
| Marina Mabrey | Points | 2026-06-25 | 18.24 | 53.00 | -34.76 |
| Marina Mabrey | Pts+Ast | 2026-06-25 | 22.39 | 55.00 | -32.61 |
| Kahleah Copper | Pts+Reb | 2026-06-13 | 19.06 | 51.00 | -31.94 |
| Kahleah Copper | Pts+Reb+Ast | 2026-06-13 | 21.07 | 52.00 | -30.93 |
| Natasha Howard | Pts+Reb+Ast | 2026-05-23 | 17.06 | 45.00 | -27.94 |
| Dominique Malonga | Pts+Reb | 2026-06-22 | 21.22 | 49.00 | -27.78 |
| Brittney Griner | Pts+Reb+Ast | 2026-07-06 | 14.34 | 42.00 | -27.66 |
| Dominique Malonga | Pts+Reb+Ast | 2026-06-22 | 22.89 | 50.00 | -27.11 |
Separate system
Line Selection Performance
Graded results for the model's selected over/under and combo sides — reported separately and excluded from the projection-accuracy metrics above.
Line selection record — season
1,867–1,657
Hit rate 53.0% on decided bets; 77 pushes.
Last 30 days
334–281
Hit rate 54.3%.
Last 7 days
100–85
Hit rate 54.1%.
| Segment | Singles | Combos | Overs | Unders |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season | 1,268 | 2,333 | 1,095 | 2,506 |
Line Selection Calibration
| Predicted band | Predicted | Actual | Selections |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50-60% | 58.4% | 58.2% | 304 |
| 60-70% | 63.8% | 50.9% | 2,021 |
| 70-80% | 74.0% | 50.0% | 428 |
| 80%+ | 93.2% | 58.1% | 771 |
Line Selection Performance measures how the model's selected over/under and combo sides graded against sportsbook lines — a separate system from the projection model. These numbers never feed the projection-accuracy figures above.
Method: every player projection published before tip-off is graded against the final official box score (no look-ahead; historical projections are never regenerated). Turnovers are excluded because the projection engine does not publish a turnover projection. Line-selection results are reported separately below and never influence these projection-accuracy figures.