| date | LOSS | WIN | wins | losses | total | win_pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-27 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1.000 |
| 2026-03-28 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 15 | 0.600 |
| 2026-03-29 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 0.167 |
| 2026-03-30 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0.333 |
| 2026-03-31 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 0.714 |
| 2026-04-01 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 0.857 |
| 2026-04-02 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 0.286 |
| 2026-04-03 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 0.286 |
| 2026-04-04 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 0.667 |
| 2026-04-05 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 0.600 |
| 2026-04-06 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 0.714 |
| 2026-04-07 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 0.571 |
| 2026-04-10 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 0.286 |
| 2026-04-12 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0.667 |
| stat | bets | wins | losses | win_pct | section | confidence_label | prediction | hit_rate_bucket |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AST | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0.333 | by_stat | NaN | NaN | NaN |
| PTS | 86 | 46 | 40 | 0.535 | by_stat | NaN | NaN | NaN |
| REB | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0.667 | by_stat | NaN | NaN | NaN |
| NaN | 56 | 35 | 21 | 0.625 | by_confidence | High | NaN | NaN |
| NaN | 14 | 7 | 7 | 0.500 | by_confidence | Low | NaN | NaN |
| NaN | 22 | 7 | 15 | 0.318 | by_confidence | Medium | NaN | NaN |
| NaN | 48 | 18 | 30 | 0.375 | by_side | NaN | OVER | NaN |
| NaN | 42 | 29 | 13 | 0.690 | by_side | NaN | UNDER | NaN |
| NaN | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1.000 | by_side | NaN | NaN | NaN |
| NaN | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0.500 | by_hit_rate | NaN | NaN | <=55% |
| NaN | 15 | 7 | 8 | 0.467 | by_hit_rate | NaN | NaN | 55-60% |
| NaN | 11 | 3 | 8 | 0.273 | by_hit_rate | NaN | NaN | 60-65% |
| NaN | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0.571 | by_hit_rate | NaN | NaN | 65-70% |
| NaN | 32 | 21 | 11 | 0.656 | by_hit_rate | NaN | NaN | 70%+ |
NBA Model Calibration Report
Total graded bets: 92
Overall record: 49-43
Overall win rate: 0.533
By confidence label:
confidence_label bets wins losses win_pct
High 56 35 21 0.625
Medium 22 7 15 0.318
Low 14 7 7 0.500
By stat:
stat bets wins losses win_pct
PTS 86 46 40 0.535
AST 3 1 2 0.333
REB 3 2 1 0.667
By side:
prediction bets wins losses win_pct
OVER 48 18 30 0.375
UNDER 42 29 13 0.690
NaN 2 2 0 1.000
By hit-rate bucket:
hit_rate_bucket bets wins losses win_pct
70%+ 32 21 11 0.656
unknown 23 12 11 0.522
55-60% 15 7 8 0.467
60-65% 11 3 8 0.273
65-70% 7 4 3 0.571
<=55% 4 2 2 0.500
| market | player_name | play | line | confidence | edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HITTER_K | Nasim Nuñez | OVER | 0.5 | Medium | 1.18 |
| HITTER_K | Vinnie Pasquantino | OVER | 0.5 | Medium | 1.16 |
| PITCHER_K | Kade Morris | OVER | 3.5 | Low | 2.71 |
| HITTER_K | Nathan Lukes | OVER | 0.5 | Low | 1.03 |
| PITCHER_K | Lake Bachar | UNDER | 2.5 | Low | -1.10 |
| date | market | bets | wins | losses | pushes | win_rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-26 | HITTER_HIT | 19 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 100.0 |
| 2026-03-26 | PITCHER_K | 14 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 57.1 |
| 2026-03-27 | HITTER_HIT | 20 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 100.0 |
| 2026-03-27 | PITCHER_K | 15 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 73.3 |
| 2026-03-28 | HITTER_HIT | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.0 |
| 2026-03-28 | PITCHER_K | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 100.0 |
| 2026-03-29 | HITTER_HIT | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 40.0 |
| 2026-03-30 | HITTER_HIT | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100.0 |
| 2026-03-30 | PITCHER_K | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-03-31 | HITTER_HIT | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 42.9 |
| 2026-03-31 | HITTER_RBI | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 50.0 |
| 2026-03-31 | PITCHER_K | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 75.0 |
| 2026-03-31 | PITCHER_OUTS | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-04-01 | HITTER_HIT | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 33.3 |
| 2026-04-01 | HITTER_HR | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-04-01 | HITTER_HRRBI | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 66.7 |
| 2026-04-01 | HITTER_RBI | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 33.3 |
| 2026-04-02 | HITTER_HIT | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.0 |
| 2026-04-02 | HITTER_HRRBI | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-04-02 | HITTER_RBI | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 33.3 |
| Category | Rank | Hitter | Pitcher | Team | Opponent | Hit Probability | Total Bases >= 2 | 2+ Hits Probability | RBI Probability | Home Run Probability | Stolen Base Probability | Hitter Strikeout % | Projected Hitter Strikeouts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hit Targets | 1 | Aaron Judge | Ranger Suarez | New York Yankees | Boston Red Sox | 65.0 | 55.0 | 41.4 | 41.3 | 27.3 | 3.3 | 30.9 | 0.88 |
| Hit Targets | 2 | Brent Rooker | Tatsuya Imai | Athletics | Houston Astros | 65.0 | 52.3 | 39.7 | 44.7 | 23.7 | 4.0 | 30.9 | 0.88 |
| Hit Targets | 3 | Brandon Lowe | Spencer Strider | Pittsburgh Pirates | Atlanta Braves | 65.0 | 51.0 | 38.5 | 37.3 | 19.0 | 3.5 | 32.9 | 0.94 |
| Hit Targets | 4 | Hunter Goodman | Jacob Misiorowski | Colorado Rockies | Milwaukee Brewers | 65.0 | 48.3 | 36.8 | 39.0 | 25.7 | 4.0 | 32.6 | 0.93 |
| Hit Targets | 5 | Byron Buxton | Luinder Avila | Minnesota Twins | Kansas City Royals | 65.0 | 48.0 | 36.6 | 44.7 | 24.3 | 3.9 | 33.0 | 0.94 |
| Hit Targets | 6 | José Ramírez | Jack Leiter | Cleveland Guardians | Texas Rangers | 65.0 | 48.0 | 36.6 | 41.3 | 21.0 | 4.0 | 33.0 | 0.94 |
| Hit Targets | 7 | Gunnar Henderson | Unknown Pitcher | Baltimore Orioles | Toronto Blue Jays | 65.0 | 48.0 | 36.7 | 35.7 | 16.3 | 4.2 | 32.7 | 0.93 |
| Hit Targets | 8 | Juan Soto | Griffin Canning | New York Mets | San Diego Padres | 65.0 | 47.7 | 36.4 | 44.0 | 19.7 | 4.1 | 33.0 | 0.94 |
| Hit Targets | 9 | Marcell Ozuna | Spencer Strider | Pittsburgh Pirates | Atlanta Braves | 65.0 | 44.7 | 34.3 | 39.3 | 18.7 | 4.1 | 34.3 | 0.98 |
| Hit Targets | 10 | Christian Walker | Kade Morris | Houston Astros | Athletics | 65.0 | 44.3 | 34.0 | 39.0 | 19.7 | 4.1 | 34.4 | 0.98 |
| Hit Targets | 11 | Colson Montgomery | Andrew Painter | Chicago White Sox | Philadelphia Phillies | 65.0 | 44.0 | 33.8 | 36.3 | 17.7 | 4.1 | 34.6 | 0.99 |
| Hit Targets | 12 | CJ Abrams | Eduardo Rodriguez | Washington Nationals | Arizona Diamondbacks | 65.0 | 43.3 | 33.6 | 27.3 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 34.3 | 0.98 |
| Hit Targets | 13 | Andrew Vaughn | Unknown Pitcher | Milwaukee Brewers | Colorado Rockies | 65.0 | 42.7 | 33.1 | 32.0 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 34.8 | 0.99 |
| Hit Targets | 14 | Kyle Tucker | Jack Kochanowicz | Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Angels | 65.0 | 42.0 | 32.7 | 33.0 | 8.3 | 4.8 | 34.6 | 0.99 |
| Hit Targets | 15 | Alex Call | Jack Kochanowicz | Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Angels | 65.0 | 41.0 | 31.9 | 26.0 | 2.3 | 4.7 | 35.4 | 1.01 |
| Hit Targets | 16 | Dominic Canzone | Keider Montero | Seattle Mariners | Detroit Tigers | 65.0 | 40.3 | 31.5 | 31.7 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 35.2 | 1.01 |
| Hit Targets | 17 | Alec Burleson | Nick Lodolo | St. Louis Cardinals | Cincinnati Reds | 65.0 | 38.7 | 30.4 | 21.3 | 1.0 | 5.0 | 36.0 | 1.03 |
| Hit Targets | 18 | Alex Bregman | Landen Roupp | Chicago Cubs | San Francisco Giants | 65.0 | 36.3 | 28.8 | 22.0 | 1.7 | 5.3 | 36.3 | 1.04 |
| Hit Targets | 19 | Josh Naylor | Keider Montero | Seattle Mariners | Detroit Tigers | 64.7 | 38.7 | 30.3 | 33.7 | 7.0 | 4.9 | 35.9 | 1.03 |
| Hit Targets | 20 | Pete Alonso | Unknown Pitcher | Baltimore Orioles | Toronto Blue Jays | 64.3 | 44.7 | 34.2 | 42.7 | 21.0 | 3.9 | 34.6 | 0.99 |
| pitcher_name | opponent | projected_strikeouts | sim_mean | recommended_play | recommendation_confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unknown Pitcher | Milwaukee Brewers | 4.95 | 4.95 | Pass | Low |
| Kyle Bradish | Toronto Blue Jays | 5.51 | 5.51 | Pass | Low |
| Jack Leiter | Cleveland Guardians | 5.86 | 5.86 | Pass | Low |
| Tanner Bibee | Texas Rangers | 5.53 | 5.53 | Pass | Low |
| Matthew Liberatore | Cincinnati Reds | 5.33 | 5.33 | Pass | Low |
| Nick Lodolo | St. Louis Cardinals | 4.35 | 4.35 | Pass | Low |
| Griffin Canning | New York Mets | 5.07 | 5.07 | Pass | Low |
| Nolan McLean | San Diego Padres | 7.49 | 7.49 | Pass | Low |
| Andrew Painter | Chicago White Sox | 4.65 | 4.65 | Pass | Low |
| Brandon Eisert | Philadelphia Phillies | 1.20 | 1.20 | Pass | Low |
| Will Warren | Boston Red Sox | 6.26 | 6.26 | Pass | Low |
| Ranger Suarez | New York Yankees | 5.48 | 5.48 | Pass | Low |
| Joe Ryan | Kansas City Royals | 7.37 | 7.37 | Pass | Low |
| Luinder Avila | Minnesota Twins | 4.40 | 4.40 | Pass | Low |
| Lake Bachar | Tampa Bay Rays | 1.40 | 1.40 | Pass | Low |
| Shane McClanahan | Miami Marlins | 5.94 | 5.94 | Pass | Low |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Los Angeles Angels | 6.54 | 6.54 | Pass | Low |
| Jack Kochanowicz | Los Angeles Dodgers | 3.64 | 3.64 | Pass | Low |
| Tatsuya Imai | Athletics | 4.97 | 4.97 | Pass | Low |
| Kade Morris | Houston Astros | 6.21 | 6.21 | Pass | Low |
| date | market | player_name | play | line | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-16 | HITTER_K | Gary Sánchez | UNDER | 2.5 | NaN |
| 2026-04-16 | HITTER_K | Garrett Mitchell | UNDER | 2.5 | NaN |
| 2026-04-16 | HITTER_K | James Wood | UNDER | 2.5 | NaN |
| 2026-04-16 | HITTER_HIT | Daulton Varsho | OVER | 0.5 | NaN |
| 2026-04-16 | HITTER_HIT | Jackson Merrill | OVER | 0.5 | NaN |
| 2026-04-16 | HITTER_HIT | Jesús Sánchez | OVER | 0.5 | NaN |
| 2026-04-19 | PITCHER_OUTS | Michael Lorenzen | UNDER | 14.0 | NaN |
| 2026-04-19 | PITCHER_OUTS | Bailey Ober | UNDER | 16.5 | NaN |
| 2026-04-19 | PITCHER_OUTS | Jacob Misiorowski | UNDER | 16.5 | NaN |
| 2026-04-19 | HITTER_K | Nathan Lukes | OVER | 0.5 | NaN |
| 2026-04-19 | HITTER_K | Yandy Díaz | OVER | 0.5 | NaN |
| 2026-04-19 | HITTER_K | Luis García Jr. | OVER | 0.5 | NaN |
| 2026-04-19 | PITCHER_K | Cole Ragans | UNDER | 6.5 | NaN |
| 2026-04-19 | PITCHER_K | Andrew Painter | OVER | 4.5 | NaN |