| date | LOSS | WIN | wins | losses | total | win_pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-27 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1.000 |
| 2026-03-28 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 15 | 0.600 |
| 2026-03-29 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 0.167 |
| 2026-03-30 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0.333 |
| 2026-03-31 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 0.714 |
| 2026-04-01 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 0.857 |
| 2026-04-02 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 0.286 |
| 2026-04-03 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 0.286 |
| 2026-04-04 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 0.667 |
| 2026-04-05 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 0.600 |
| 2026-04-06 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 0.714 |
| 2026-04-07 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 0.571 |
| stat | bets | wins | losses | win_pct | section | confidence_label | prediction | hit_rate_bucket |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PTS | 81 | 44 | 37 | 0.543 | by_stat | NaN | NaN | NaN |
| REB | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1.000 | by_stat | NaN | NaN | NaN |
| NaN | 48 | 31 | 17 | 0.646 | by_confidence | High | NaN | NaN |
| NaN | 13 | 7 | 6 | 0.538 | by_confidence | Low | NaN | NaN |
| NaN | 21 | 7 | 14 | 0.333 | by_confidence | Medium | NaN | NaN |
| NaN | 42 | 16 | 26 | 0.381 | by_side | NaN | OVER | NaN |
| NaN | 38 | 27 | 11 | 0.711 | by_side | NaN | UNDER | NaN |
| NaN | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1.000 | by_side | NaN | NaN | NaN |
| NaN | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0.667 | by_hit_rate | NaN | NaN | <=55% |
| NaN | 14 | 7 | 7 | 0.500 | by_hit_rate | NaN | NaN | 55-60% |
| NaN | 11 | 3 | 8 | 0.273 | by_hit_rate | NaN | NaN | 60-65% |
| NaN | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0.667 | by_hit_rate | NaN | NaN | 65-70% |
| NaN | 25 | 17 | 8 | 0.680 | by_hit_rate | NaN | NaN | 70%+ |
NBA Model Calibration Report
Total graded bets: 82
Overall record: 45-37
Overall win rate: 0.549
By confidence label:
confidence_label bets wins losses win_pct
High 48 31 17 0.646
Medium 21 7 14 0.333
Low 13 7 6 0.538
By stat:
stat bets wins losses win_pct
PTS 81 44 37 0.543
REB 1 1 0 1.000
By side:
prediction bets wins losses win_pct
OVER 42 16 26 0.381
UNDER 38 27 11 0.711
NaN 2 2 0 1.000
By hit-rate bucket:
hit_rate_bucket bets wins losses win_pct
70%+ 25 17 8 0.680
unknown 23 12 11 0.522
55-60% 14 7 7 0.500
60-65% 11 3 8 0.273
65-70% 6 4 2 0.667
<=55% 3 2 1 0.667
| market | player_name | play | line | confidence | edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HITTER_K | Giancarlo Stanton | UNDER | 2.5 | Medium | -1.40 |
| HITTER_K | Matt Wallner | UNDER | 2.5 | Medium | -1.36 |
| HITTER_K | Max Muncy | UNDER | 2.5 | Medium | -1.31 |
| HITTER_HIT | Josh Bell | OVER | 0.5 | Low | 0.31 |
| HITTER_HIT | Otto Lopez | OVER | 0.5 | Low | 0.25 |
| HITTER_HIT | Corbin Carroll | OVER | 0.5 | Low | 0.20 |
| date | market | bets | wins | losses | pushes | win_rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-26 | HITTER_HIT | 19 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 100.0 |
| 2026-03-26 | PITCHER_K | 14 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 57.1 |
| 2026-03-27 | HITTER_HIT | 20 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 100.0 |
| 2026-03-27 | PITCHER_K | 15 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 73.3 |
| 2026-03-28 | HITTER_HIT | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.0 |
| 2026-03-28 | PITCHER_K | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 100.0 |
| 2026-03-29 | HITTER_HIT | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 40.0 |
| 2026-03-30 | HITTER_HIT | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100.0 |
| 2026-03-30 | PITCHER_K | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-03-31 | HITTER_HIT | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 42.9 |
| 2026-03-31 | HITTER_RBI | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 50.0 |
| 2026-03-31 | PITCHER_K | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 75.0 |
| 2026-03-31 | PITCHER_OUTS | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-04-01 | HITTER_HIT | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 33.3 |
| 2026-04-01 | HITTER_HR | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-04-01 | HITTER_HRRBI | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 66.7 |
| 2026-04-01 | HITTER_RBI | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 33.3 |
| 2026-04-02 | HITTER_HIT | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.0 |
| 2026-04-02 | HITTER_HRRBI | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-04-02 | HITTER_RBI | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 33.3 |
| Category | Rank | Hitter | Pitcher | Hit Probability | Total Bases >= 2 | RBI Probability | Home Run Probability | Stolen Base Probability | Hitter Strikeout % | Projected Hitter Strikeouts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hit Targets | 1 | Corbin Carroll | Jesús Luzardo | 59.4 | 29.8 | 15.4 | 2.1 | 7.1 | 20.4 | NaN |
| Hit Targets | 2 | Bryce Harper | Michael Soroka | 59.1 | 34.3 | 19.9 | 4.7 | 7.5 | 13.5 | NaN |
| Hit Targets | 3 | Brett Baty | J.T. Ginn | 58.6 | 25.7 | 13.2 | 1.6 | 12.1 | 26.7 | NaN |
| Hit Targets | 4 | Drake Baldwin | Slade Cecconi | 58.5 | 33.2 | 17.1 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 15.3 | NaN |
| Hit Targets | 5 | Andy Pages | Kumar Rocker | 58.5 | 31.6 | 16.2 | 1.8 | 5.5 | 27.1 | NaN |
| Hit Targets | 6 | Francisco Alvarez | J.T. Ginn | 58.5 | 30.0 | 17.2 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 19.5 | NaN |
| Hit Targets | 7 | Brandon Nimmo | Tyler Glasnow | 58.5 | 29.9 | 14.3 | 1.8 | 7.5 | 18.9 | NaN |
| Hit Targets | 8 | CJ Abrams | Chad Patrick | 58.4 | 33.4 | 16.7 | 3.1 | 20.5 | 18.4 | NaN |
| Hit Targets | 9 | Freddie Freeman | Kumar Rocker | 58.4 | 32.7 | 17.6 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 7.4 | NaN |
| Hit Targets | 10 | Jordan Walker | Connelly Early | 58.2 | 37.9 | 19.5 | 5.4 | 4.4 | 28.6 | NaN |
| Hit Targets | 11 | Brady House | Chad Patrick | 58.0 | 32.5 | 14.5 | 3.9 | 0.5 | 27.1 | NaN |
| Hit Targets | 12 | Jo Adell | Chase Burns | 57.9 | 26.1 | 14.3 | 2.2 | 7.0 | 19.2 | NaN |
| Hit Targets | 13 | Christian Walker | Emerson Hancock | 57.7 | 32.6 | 16.9 | 1.8 | 3.1 | 12.7 | NaN |
| Hit Targets | 14 | Ildemaro Vargas | Jesús Luzardo | 57.5 | 26.9 | 14.7 | 1.7 | 4.2 | 7.7 | NaN |
| Hit Targets | 15 | Jonathan Aranda | Luis Gil | 57.4 | 27.3 | 14.3 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 17.9 | NaN |
| Hit Targets | 16 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | Tomoyuki Sugano | 57.4 | 27.3 | 12.7 | 1.8 | 12.6 | 27.1 | NaN |
| Hit Targets | 17 | Chandler Simpson | Luis Gil | 57.0 | 25.9 | 13.9 | 1.8 | 22.1 | 4.1 | NaN |
| Hit Targets | 18 | Austin Hedges | Bryce Elder | 56.8 | 24.5 | 13.8 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 20.0 | NaN |
| Hit Targets | 19 | Bo Bichette | J.T. Ginn | 56.5 | 24.1 | 11.5 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 23.0 | NaN |
| Hit Targets | 20 | Edouard Julien | Walker Buehler | 56.4 | 25.3 | 13.8 | 1.6 | 19.8 | 28.6 | NaN |
| pitcher_name | opponent | projected_strikeouts | sim_mean | recommended_play | recommendation_confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nolan McLean | Arizona Diamondbacks | 6.08 | 4.89 | Pass | Low |
| Seth Lugo | Chicago White Sox | 4.66 | 4.41 | Pass | Low |
| Randy Vásquez | Colorado Rockies | 3.70 | 3.87 | Pass | Low |
| Jeffrey Springs | New York Yankees | 3.79 | 3.64 | Pass | Low |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | New York Mets | 3.48 | 3.56 | Pass | Low |
| Max Meyer | Cincinnati Reds | 3.81 | 3.52 | Pass | Low |
| Mick Abel | Detroit Tigers | 3.78 | 3.38 | Pass | Low |
| Anthony Kay | Kansas City Royals | 2.22 | 2.92 | Pass | Low |
| Rhett Lowder | Miami Marlins | 2.57 | 2.91 | Pass | Low |
| Jack Flaherty | Minnesota Twins | 3.59 | 3.00 | Pass | Low |
| Ryan Weathers | Athletics | 3.35 | 2.91 | Pass | Low |
| Jimmy Herget | San Diego Padres | 2.00 | 1.39 | Pass | Low |
| date | market | player_name | play | line | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-26 | HITTER_HIT | Julio Rodríguez | UNDER | 0.5 | WIN |
| 2026-03-26 | HITTER_HIT | Max Muncy | UNDER | 0.5 | WIN |
| 2026-03-26 | HITTER_HIT | Will Smith | UNDER | 0.5 | WIN |
| 2026-03-26 | HITTER_HIT | Teoscar Hernández | UNDER | 0.5 | WIN |
| 2026-03-26 | HITTER_HIT | Bo Naylor | UNDER | 0.5 | WIN |
| 2026-03-26 | HITTER_HIT | Alek Thomas | UNDER | 0.5 | WIN |
| 2026-03-26 | HITTER_HIT | Carlos Santana | UNDER | 0.5 | WIN |
| 2026-03-26 | HITTER_HIT | Gabriel Moreno | UNDER | 0.5 | WIN |
| 2026-03-26 | HITTER_HIT | José Ramírez | UNDER | 0.5 | WIN |
| 2026-03-26 | HITTER_HIT | Kyle Tucker | UNDER | 0.5 | WIN |
| 2026-03-26 | HITTER_HIT | Leo Rivas | UNDER | 0.5 | WIN |
| 2026-03-26 | HITTER_HIT | Miguel Rojas | UNDER | 0.5 | WIN |
| 2026-03-26 | HITTER_HIT | Rhys Hoskins | UNDER | 0.5 | WIN |
| 2026-03-26 | HITTER_HIT | Brayan Rocchio | UNDER | 0.5 | WIN |
| 2026-03-26 | HITTER_HIT | Nolan Arenado | UNDER | 0.5 | WIN |
| 2026-03-26 | HITTER_HIT | Kyle Manzardo | UNDER | 0.5 | WIN |
| 2026-03-26 | HITTER_HIT | Andy Pages | UNDER | 0.5 | WIN |
| 2026-03-26 | HITTER_HIT | Mookie Betts | UNDER | 0.5 | WIN |
| 2026-03-26 | HITTER_HIT | Steven Kwan | UNDER | 0.5 | WIN |
| 2026-03-26 | PITCHER_K | Logan Gilbert | UNDER | 9.5 | WIN |