| date | LOSS | WIN | wins | losses | total | win_pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-27 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1.000 |
| 2026-03-28 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 15 | 0.600 |
| 2026-03-29 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 0.167 |
| 2026-03-30 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0.333 |
| 2026-03-31 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 0.714 |
| 2026-04-01 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 0.857 |
| 2026-04-02 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 0.286 |
| 2026-04-03 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 0.286 |
| 2026-04-04 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 0.667 |
| 2026-04-05 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 0.600 |
| 2026-04-06 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 0.714 |
| 2026-04-07 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 0.571 |
| 2026-04-10 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 0.286 |
| 2026-04-12 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0.667 |
| stat | bets | wins | losses | win_pct | section | confidence_label | prediction | hit_rate_bucket |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AST | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0.333 | by_stat | NaN | NaN | NaN |
| PTS | 86 | 46 | 40 | 0.535 | by_stat | NaN | NaN | NaN |
| REB | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0.667 | by_stat | NaN | NaN | NaN |
| NaN | 56 | 35 | 21 | 0.625 | by_confidence | High | NaN | NaN |
| NaN | 14 | 7 | 7 | 0.500 | by_confidence | Low | NaN | NaN |
| NaN | 22 | 7 | 15 | 0.318 | by_confidence | Medium | NaN | NaN |
| NaN | 48 | 18 | 30 | 0.375 | by_side | NaN | OVER | NaN |
| NaN | 42 | 29 | 13 | 0.690 | by_side | NaN | UNDER | NaN |
| NaN | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1.000 | by_side | NaN | NaN | NaN |
| NaN | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0.500 | by_hit_rate | NaN | NaN | <=55% |
| NaN | 15 | 7 | 8 | 0.467 | by_hit_rate | NaN | NaN | 55-60% |
| NaN | 11 | 3 | 8 | 0.273 | by_hit_rate | NaN | NaN | 60-65% |
| NaN | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0.571 | by_hit_rate | NaN | NaN | 65-70% |
| NaN | 32 | 21 | 11 | 0.656 | by_hit_rate | NaN | NaN | 70%+ |
NBA Model Calibration Report
Total graded bets: 92
Overall record: 49-43
Overall win rate: 0.533
By confidence label:
confidence_label bets wins losses win_pct
High 56 35 21 0.625
Medium 22 7 15 0.318
Low 14 7 7 0.500
By stat:
stat bets wins losses win_pct
PTS 86 46 40 0.535
AST 3 1 2 0.333
REB 3 2 1 0.667
By side:
prediction bets wins losses win_pct
OVER 48 18 30 0.375
UNDER 42 29 13 0.690
NaN 2 2 0 1.000
By hit-rate bucket:
hit_rate_bucket bets wins losses win_pct
70%+ 32 21 11 0.656
unknown 23 12 11 0.522
55-60% 15 7 8 0.467
60-65% 11 3 8 0.273
65-70% 7 4 3 0.571
<=55% 4 2 2 0.500
| market | player_name | play | line | confidence | edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PITCHER_OUTS | Luinder Avila | UNDER | 14.5 | High | -3.52 |
| PITCHER_OUTS | Nick Lodolo | UNDER | 17.5 | High | -3.41 |
| HITTER_K | Vinnie Pasquantino | OVER | 0.5 | Medium | 1.16 |
| HITTER_K | Michael Massey | OVER | 0.5 | Low | 1.07 |
| PITCHER_OUTS | Landen Roupp | UNDER | 16.5 | Low | -2.38 |
| HITTER_K | Ryan Vilade | OVER | 0.5 | Low | 0.99 |
| PITCHER_K | Bryce Miller | OVER | 4.5 | Low | 2.90 |
| date | market | bets | wins | losses | pushes | win_rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-26 | HITTER_HIT | 19 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 100.0 |
| 2026-03-26 | PITCHER_K | 14 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 57.1 |
| 2026-03-27 | HITTER_HIT | 20 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 100.0 |
| 2026-03-27 | PITCHER_K | 15 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 73.3 |
| 2026-03-28 | HITTER_HIT | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.0 |
| 2026-03-28 | PITCHER_K | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 100.0 |
| 2026-03-29 | HITTER_HIT | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 40.0 |
| 2026-03-30 | HITTER_HIT | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100.0 |
| 2026-03-30 | PITCHER_K | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-03-31 | HITTER_HIT | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 42.9 |
| 2026-03-31 | HITTER_RBI | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 50.0 |
| 2026-03-31 | PITCHER_K | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 75.0 |
| 2026-03-31 | PITCHER_OUTS | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-04-01 | HITTER_HIT | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 33.3 |
| 2026-04-01 | HITTER_HR | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-04-01 | HITTER_HRRBI | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 66.7 |
| 2026-04-01 | HITTER_RBI | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 33.3 |
| 2026-04-02 | HITTER_HIT | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.0 |
| 2026-04-02 | HITTER_HRRBI | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-04-02 | HITTER_RBI | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 33.3 |
| Category | Rank | Hitter | Pitcher | Team | Opponent | Hit Probability | Total Bases >= 2 | 2+ Hits Probability | RBI Probability | Home Run Probability | Stolen Base Probability | Hitter Strikeout % | Projected Hitter Strikeouts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hit Targets | 1 | Adley Rutschman | Griffin Canning | Baltimore Orioles | San Diego Padres | 65.0 | 47.5 | 19.4 | 34.3 | 4.2 | 7.1 | 13.9 | 0.40 |
| Hit Targets | 2 | Shohei Ohtani | Anthony Kay | Los Angeles Dodgers | Chicago White Sox | 65.0 | 46.8 | 3.8 | 36.0 | 18.4 | 7.8 | 22.5 | 0.64 |
| Hit Targets | 3 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | Shane Baz | San Diego Padres | Baltimore Orioles | 65.0 | 46.8 | 12.6 | 34.5 | 16.3 | 19.6 | 21.0 | 0.60 |
| Hit Targets | 4 | Byron Buxton | Kyle Leahy | Minnesota Twins | St. Louis Cardinals | 65.0 | 45.4 | 9.4 | 36.0 | 18.4 | 3.0 | 26.1 | 0.75 |
| Hit Targets | 5 | Bryce Harper | Jacob Misiorowski | Philadelphia Phillies | Milwaukee Brewers | 65.0 | 45.2 | 7.5 | 36.0 | 17.0 | 7.4 | 18.4 | 0.53 |
| Hit Targets | 6 | Gunnar Henderson | Griffin Canning | Baltimore Orioles | San Diego Padres | 65.0 | 45.1 | 18.4 | 36.0 | 15.5 | 10.1 | 24.9 | 0.71 |
| Hit Targets | 7 | Wilyer Abreu | Jack Leiter | Boston Red Sox | Texas Rangers | 65.0 | 45.1 | 19.8 | 36.0 | 12.2 | 9.2 | 20.0 | 0.57 |
| Hit Targets | 8 | Andy Pages | Anthony Kay | Los Angeles Dodgers | Chicago White Sox | 65.0 | 44.5 | 11.4 | 36.0 | 3.8 | 9.1 | 18.8 | 0.54 |
| Hit Targets | 9 | CJ Abrams | Bryce Miller | Washington Nationals | Seattle Mariners | 65.0 | 43.5 | 14.9 | 32.2 | 3.9 | 15.1 | 20.1 | 0.57 |
| Hit Targets | 10 | Josh Naylor | Zack Littell | Seattle Mariners | Washington Nationals | 65.0 | 39.9 | 11.4 | 36.0 | 8.5 | 15.3 | 13.0 | 0.37 |
| Hit Targets | 11 | Rafael Devers | Javier Assad | San Francisco Giants | Chicago Cubs | 65.0 | 37.4 | 4.4 | 35.6 | 16.4 | 0.2 | 30.5 | 0.87 |
| Hit Targets | 12 | Edouard Julien | Gage Jump | Colorado Rockies | Athletics | 65.0 | 33.2 | 8.9 | 28.1 | 1.3 | 12.0 | 27.4 | 0.78 |
| Hit Targets | 13 | Brett Baty | Spencer Strider | New York Mets | Atlanta Braves | 65.0 | 29.4 | 11.5 | 18.9 | 0.9 | 6.2 | 27.9 | 0.80 |
| Hit Targets | 14 | Freddie Freeman | Anthony Kay | Los Angeles Dodgers | Chicago White Sox | 64.9 | 41.9 | 9.0 | 34.7 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 16.2 | 0.46 |
| Hit Targets | 15 | Brandon Marsh | Jacob Misiorowski | Philadelphia Phillies | Milwaukee Brewers | 64.9 | 29.2 | 7.1 | 20.8 | 1.5 | 8.7 | 23.7 | 0.68 |
| Hit Targets | 16 | Brandon Lowe | Sandy Alcantara | Pittsburgh Pirates | Miami Marlins | 64.8 | 48.0 | 10.4 | 36.0 | 17.4 | 0.2 | 24.4 | 0.70 |
| Hit Targets | 17 | Spencer Steer | Eduardo Rodriguez | Cincinnati Reds | Arizona Diamondbacks | 64.8 | 48.0 | 21.3 | 36.0 | 8.9 | 6.2 | 20.8 | 0.59 |
| Hit Targets | 18 | Andrew Vaughn | Andrew Painter | Milwaukee Brewers | Philadelphia Phillies | 64.8 | 39.5 | 10.7 | 25.4 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 9.9 | 0.28 |
| Hit Targets | 19 | Julio Rodríguez | Zack Littell | Seattle Mariners | Washington Nationals | 64.5 | 38.4 | 10.2 | 30.3 | 7.4 | 9.9 | 20.7 | 0.59 |
| Hit Targets | 20 | Shea Langeliers | Unknown Pitcher | Athletics | Colorado Rockies | 64.4 | 41.9 | 5.6 | 35.0 | 17.8 | 1.1 | 19.7 | 0.56 |
| pitcher_name | opponent | projected_strikeouts | sim_mean | recommended_play | recommendation_confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Littell | Seattle Mariners | 4.68 | 4.68 | Pass | Low |
| Bryce Miller | Washington Nationals | 7.40 | 7.40 | Pass | Low |
| Trey Yesavage | New York Yankees | 6.70 | 6.70 | Pass | Low |
| Ryan Weathers | Toronto Blue Jays | 6.83 | 6.83 | Pass | Low |
| Landen Roupp | Chicago Cubs | 5.08 | 5.08 | Pass | Low |
| Javier Assad | San Francisco Giants | 3.92 | 3.92 | Pass | Low |
| Braxton Ashcraft | Miami Marlins | 6.51 | 6.51 | Pass | Low |
| Sandy Alcantara | Pittsburgh Pirates | 5.32 | 5.32 | Pass | Low |
| Nolan McLean | Atlanta Braves | 7.11 | 7.11 | Pass | Low |
| Spencer Strider | New York Mets | 6.12 | 6.12 | Pass | Low |
| Joe Ryan | St. Louis Cardinals | 5.66 | 5.66 | Pass | Low |
| Kyle Leahy | Minnesota Twins | 3.80 | 3.80 | Pass | Low |
| Jacob Misiorowski | Philadelphia Phillies | 7.99 | 7.99 | Pass | Low |
| Andrew Painter | Milwaukee Brewers | 4.58 | 4.58 | Pass | Low |
| Sam Aldegheri | Tampa Bay Rays | 3.27 | 3.27 | Pass | Low |
| Shane McClanahan | Los Angeles Angels | 5.56 | 5.56 | Pass | Low |
| Luinder Avila | Houston Astros | 4.50 | 4.50 | Pass | Low |
| Tatsuya Imai | Kansas City Royals | 5.22 | 5.22 | Pass | Low |
| Tanner Bibee | Detroit Tigers | 5.56 | 5.56 | Pass | Low |
| Jack Flaherty | Cleveland Guardians | 5.43 | 5.43 | Pass | Low |
| date | market | player_name | play | line | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-26 | HITTER_HIT | Julio Rodríguez | UNDER | 0.5 | WIN |
| 2026-03-26 | HITTER_HIT | Max Muncy | UNDER | 0.5 | WIN |
| 2026-03-26 | HITTER_HIT | Will Smith | UNDER | 0.5 | WIN |
| 2026-03-26 | HITTER_HIT | Teoscar Hernández | UNDER | 0.5 | WIN |
| 2026-03-26 | HITTER_HIT | Bo Naylor | UNDER | 0.5 | WIN |
| 2026-03-26 | HITTER_HIT | Alek Thomas | UNDER | 0.5 | WIN |
| 2026-03-26 | HITTER_HIT | Carlos Santana | UNDER | 0.5 | WIN |
| 2026-03-26 | HITTER_HIT | Gabriel Moreno | UNDER | 0.5 | WIN |
| 2026-03-26 | HITTER_HIT | José Ramírez | UNDER | 0.5 | WIN |
| 2026-03-26 | HITTER_HIT | Kyle Tucker | UNDER | 0.5 | WIN |
| 2026-03-26 | HITTER_HIT | Leo Rivas | UNDER | 0.5 | WIN |
| 2026-03-26 | HITTER_HIT | Miguel Rojas | UNDER | 0.5 | WIN |
| 2026-03-26 | HITTER_HIT | Rhys Hoskins | UNDER | 0.5 | WIN |
| 2026-03-26 | HITTER_HIT | Brayan Rocchio | UNDER | 0.5 | WIN |
| 2026-03-26 | HITTER_HIT | Nolan Arenado | UNDER | 0.5 | WIN |
| 2026-03-26 | HITTER_HIT | Kyle Manzardo | UNDER | 0.5 | WIN |
| 2026-03-26 | HITTER_HIT | Andy Pages | UNDER | 0.5 | WIN |
| 2026-03-26 | HITTER_HIT | Mookie Betts | UNDER | 0.5 | WIN |
| 2026-03-26 | HITTER_HIT | Steven Kwan | UNDER | 0.5 | WIN |
| 2026-03-26 | PITCHER_K | Logan Gilbert | UNDER | 9.5 | WIN |